TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks a bunch. By 12z today perhaps we take things more verbatim model-wise? 18z probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In looking at the 00z Euro thru accuwx-pro, it is definitely much colder than the GFS, the GFS/RGEM are both warm and they're both good models from what I hear. I'm torn, but it's 1 day out now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In looking at the 00z Euro thru accuwx-pro, it is definitely much colder than the GFS, the GFS/RGEM are both warm and they're both good models from what I hear. I'm torn, but it's 1 day out now... The Canadian models tend to run a little warm. GFS might be wrong or it might be on to something; hard to tell. In seasons past, a Euro/NAM agreement was usually a lock, but I've recently seen the GFS school them both so who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The Canadian models tend to run a little warm. GFS might be wrong or it might be on to something; hard to tell. In seasons past, a Euro/NAM agreement was usually a lock, but I've recently seen the GFS school them both so who knows... Thanks, agree def tough, one of them is way off. I hope the GFS is on crack but I have an unscientific feeling it might be onto something. Now would be a great time for another 12/26 blunder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How strongly do we rely on the SREFS at this time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How strongly do we rely on the SREFS at this time frame? I hear they're good, they trended warmer from 21z to 03Z. So SREF/RGEM/GFS all warm, UKMETEURO/NAM all colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I hear they're good, they trended warmer from 00z to 06Z. So SREF/RGEM/GFS all warm, UKMETEURO/NAM all colder. This just 1 day out, pretty insane. There is no 00z/06z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There is no 00z/06z SREFs 21z/3z, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I hear they're good, they trended warmer from 00z to 06Z. So SREF/RGEM/GFS all warm, UKMETEURO/NAM all colder. This just 1 day out, pretty insane. It's not like they are polar opposites though. They just vary on temps by an amount that matters. They are not extremely far apart. Just enough to make a difference. This would be similar to having a situation of models forecasting 45 and rain vs 40 and rain. It just happens to be that we are talking about more of a precarious line to walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There is no 00z/06z SREFs My thinking exactly. What I did look at were the snow probability maps at 3z, and they look good for areas west of the Blue Ridge, perhaps a bit east. But DC and Baltimore are truly right on the edge of good/nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 In looking at the 00z Euro thru accuwx-pro, it is definitely much colder than the GFS, the GFS/RGEM are both warm and they're both good models from what I hear. I'm torn, but it's 1 day out now... How many times do we have to tell you that the Canadian models tend to run warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My thinking exactly. What I did look at were the snow probability maps at 3z, and they look good for areas west of the Blue Ridge, perhaps a bit east. But DC and Baltimore are truly right on the edge of good/nothing. What do you define as "good"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lets say the 12z NAM hold serve (and looks like the 00z run, i think the 06z run was too perfect) Do we start putting more eggs in its basket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How many times do we have to tell you that the Canadian models tend to run warm? As many times as we have to tell him that he will not experience damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How many times do we have to tell you that the Canadian models tend to run warm? I never denied that, nor did I deny that the Euro has a warm surface bias, but the GFS is warmer than both the RGEM & SREF which is why I brought it up. The fact that just because they tend to run warm doesn't mean they're on crack. Just picking the coldest models seems like superficial analysis, you could find a reason why any of the models could be wrong versus the other. As many times as we have to tell him that he will not experience damaging winds Thanks, love ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My thinking exactly. What I did look at were the snow probability maps at 3z, and they look good for areas west of the Blue Ridge, perhaps a bit east. But DC and Baltimore are truly right on the edge of good/nothing. The forecasting services have to definitely be relatively fearful of this one... Could get a white surprise in the dc/balt area.. or absolutely nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I never denied that, nor did I deny that the Euro has a warm surface bias, but the GFS is warmer than both the RGEM & SREF which is why I brought it up. The fact that just because they tend to run warm doesn't mean they're on crack. Just picking the coldest models seems like superficial analysis, you could find a reason why any of the models could be wrong versus the other. No but it tends to run warm. Which is why they are warmer then the other models. I don't get your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The SREFS are not warmer at 3z than 21z ( I am checking at 12z and 18z tomorrow) at the surface. If anything they are a little colder. There is a bit of warmer temps at 850 in the DC - Balt corridor at 18z on the latest 3z run compared to the 21z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I never denied that, nor did I deny that the Euro has a warm surface bias, but the GFS is warmer than both the RGEM & SREF which is why I brought it up. The fact that just because they tend to run warm doesn't mean they're on crack. Just picking the coldest models seems like superficial analysis, you could find a reason why any of the models could be wrong versus the other. Nobody is doing this............but biases DO factor in and that's why people are less inclined to accept the RGEM warm solution. Also, the SREF's might have a few members skewing the mean. It's not a single model - it's an ENSEMBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How many times do we have to tell you that the Canadian models tend to run warm? About the same amount of times you have to 5 post him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 About the same amount of times you have to 5 post him? Please take this and my BB damaging wind post to the banter thread. We are breaking the rules, Katie I think Randy should ban us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Please take this and my BB damaging wind post to the banter thread. We are breaking the rules, Katie I think Randy should ban us. speak for yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What do you define as "good"? 70 to 90 % probs of 8 inches plus, 30 to 50 % chances of 12 inches plus. This is squarely over my area. The high probs also run very close to the DC/Balt corridor, but very rapidly drop to zero at all accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Boy would I take that outcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How many times do we have to tell you that the Canadian models tend to run warm? can you pull the trigger on storm mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like the 09z SREFs and 12z NAM will be very big runs to see if they hold from their overnight runs. The NAM has been consistent for the most part the last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No but it tends to run warm. Which is why they are warmer then the other models. I don't get your point. No worries I'm not going to clutter up the thread with my freshman Atmos-Sci knowledge. I guess I feel that given the GFS & the alternative Ukie & NAM which have their own issues that the RGEM & SREF have some support from the American Global model which doesn't have the warm-bias. I don't want to take the NAM or Euro verbatim yet is the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I never denied that, nor did I deny that the Euro has a warm surface bias, but the GFS is warmer than both the RGEM & SREF which is why I brought it up. The fact that just because they tend to run warm doesn't mean they're on crack. Just picking the coldest models seems like superficial analysis, you could find a reason why any of the models could be wrong versus the other. Thanks, love ya Who said it was "on crack"? Who is picking the coldest models just because? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 70 to 90 % probs of 8 inches plus, 30 to 50 % chances of 12 inches plus. This is squarely over my area. The high probs also run very close to the DC/Balt corridor, but very rapidly drop to zero at all accumulations. Where do you find those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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