mappy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How many times do we have to tell you that the Canadian models tend to run warm? About the same amount of times you have to 5 post him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 About the same amount of times you have to 5 post him? Please take this and my BB damaging wind post to the banter thread. We are breaking the rules, Katie I think Randy should ban us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Please take this and my BB damaging wind post to the banter thread. We are breaking the rules, Katie I think Randy should ban us. speak for yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What do you define as "good"? 70 to 90 % probs of 8 inches plus, 30 to 50 % chances of 12 inches plus. This is squarely over my area. The high probs also run very close to the DC/Balt corridor, but very rapidly drop to zero at all accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How many times do we have to tell you that the Canadian models tend to run warm? can you pull the trigger on storm mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Boy would I take that outcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like the 09z SREFs and 12z NAM will be very big runs to see if they hold from their overnight runs. The NAM has been consistent for the most part the last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No but it tends to run warm. Which is why they are warmer then the other models. I don't get your point. No worries I'm not going to clutter up the thread with my freshman Atmos-Sci knowledge. I guess I feel that given the GFS & the alternative Ukie & NAM which have their own issues that the RGEM & SREF have some support from the American Global model which doesn't have the warm-bias. I don't want to take the NAM or Euro verbatim yet is the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I never denied that, nor did I deny that the Euro has a warm surface bias, but the GFS is warmer than both the RGEM & SREF which is why I brought it up. The fact that just because they tend to run warm doesn't mean they're on crack. Just picking the coldest models seems like superficial analysis, you could find a reason why any of the models could be wrong versus the other. Thanks, love ya Who said it was "on crack"? Who is picking the coldest models just because? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 70 to 90 % probs of 8 inches plus, 30 to 50 % chances of 12 inches plus. This is squarely over my area. The high probs also run very close to the DC/Balt corridor, but very rapidly drop to zero at all accumulations. Where do you find those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 can you pull the trigger on storm mode Filter being on is amazing, except when people quote those I have filtered off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Where do you find those maps? HPC site and then on the side bar click winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 The SREFS are not warmer at 3z than 21z ( I am checking at 12z and 18z tomorrow) at the surface. If anything they are a little colder. There is a bit of warmer temps at 850 in the DC - Balt corridor at 18z on the latest 3z run compared to the 21z run. So what is Bethesdawx talking about then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I say take your elevation, and divide by 150, that'll be your storm total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HPC site and then on the side bar click winter weather. Thnx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nobody is doing this............but biases DO factor in and that's why people are less inclined to accept the RGEM warm solution. Also, the SREF's might have a few members skewing the mean. It's not a single model - it's an ENSEMBLE. I agree they factor in, but that would be easier to say if it were just the canadian models going for the warmer solution. I'm in my freshman year in Atmospheric Science Department at UMD so I still have just a very basic understanding of the models different tendancies and how they operate, but I'm smart enough to know that the SREF is an ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I would take those maps FiveAlarm with a HUGE grain of salt... they change hourly almost and are often never right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 To me the euro also does not look as good despite the wundergorund lollipop snow products. The vort is not as far south as it was and does not have as good a track for the dc Baltimore corridor. The 06Z GFS actually is too warm for snow and then dry slots. The NAM still has snow at DCA by 15Z. That the gfs has gone warmer is troublesome. Now I'm glad I'm not writing a piece today. Going to need lots of wishy washy language even though we are only 24 hours away from the event. Hopefully, the 12z models will converge towards each other again. This is reminding me of some of the potential systems last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So what is Bethesdawx talking about then? @ 850mb they're warmer in the Ensemble mean, and since surface will be above freezing most likely, 850mb temps & even below do matter. I think looking at basic QPF maps & surface temps is not the way to go, I just find it hard to see the colder solution verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 To me the euro also does not look as good despite the wundergorund lollipop snow products. The vort is not as far south as it was and does not have as good a track for the dc Baltimore corridor. The 06Z GFS actually is too warm for snow and then dry slots. The NAM still has snow at DCA by 15Z. That the gfs has gone warmer is troublesome. Now I'm glad I'm not writing a piece today. Going to need lots of wishy washy language even though we are only 24 hours away from the event. Hopefully, the 12z models will converge towards each other again. This is reminding me of some of the potential systems last year. Wes -- even with the 42 hr map Earthlight gave me earlier in the thread? I thought it looked okay to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I would take those maps FiveAlarm with a HUGE grain of salt... they change hourly almost and are often never right Yeah, I know. They changed dramatically all the time last year. I was just posting to show how they change and the latest forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I would take those maps FiveAlarm with a HUGE grain of salt... they change hourly almost and are often never right I've noticed how often they seem to change, so do the POPS. not sure why or how but I tend not to take them too seriously. They drive my wife crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Where do you find those maps? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROB_3z/probsnwloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I've noticed how often they seem to change, so do the POPS. not sure why or how but I tend not to take them too seriously. They drive my wife crazy. Not even an hour ago, it was less than what is currently being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wes -- even with the 42 hr map Earthlight gave me earlier in the thread? I thought it looked okay to me I looked at it on the wunderground site and the surface temp at dca looked to be 39 degrees or so through 15Z. The vort also didn't track down near Richmond but looked to me like it was alsmot over us but maybe it's the crappy graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If I'm not allowed to post this, please delete. This had been asked about, so here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 God that map is a load of a la garbage. Wish the offices would hand draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If I'm not allowed to post this, please delete. This had been asked about, so here it is. Can you link to the sref page for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 To me the euro also does not look as good despite the wundergorund lollipop snow products. The vort is not as far south as it was and does not have as good a track for the dc Baltimore corridor. The 06Z GFS actually is too warm for snow and then dry slots. The NAM still has snow at DCA by 15Z. That the gfs has gone warmer is troublesome. Now I'm glad I'm not writing a piece today. Going to need lots of wishy washy language even though we are only 24 hours away from the event. Hopefully, the 12z models will converge towards each other again. This is reminding me of some of the potential systems last year. the drift north in the models during the last 36-48 hrs. does seem to be a NINA trait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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