chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Do you have any opinions on what model you'd give more weight? Not right now...you can make the argument that the NAM and ECMWF have superior spatial/vertical resolution to the GFS, something that might make a difference in a marginal event for some. The WAA in the GFS is just much stronger (over our region) than either the NAM and ECMWF and the dynamical cooling isn't sufficient in the GFS to wash out all the warm layer before the precipitation moves out...i still think we still a changeover for some period of time in all three, so i'm comfortable saying we have a good chance at seeing a snowflake at DCA and BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not sure what to think for BWI feels like tossup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not really...the 6z GFS is a warm mess...we end up going to something like +3 (850 hPa) at 12z on Saturday....even when the surface temperatures crash, there's still a bit of a warm layer at 18z between 750 hPa and 900 hPa so we lose most of the deformation to rain....whereas the 6z NAM stays sub-freezing at 850 hPa and the 0z ECMWF only gets to about 0 to +1C at 850 hPA on Saturday at 12z and both are -3 to -4 C at 850 hPa at 18z. No I mean bwi post changeover on the nam soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No I mean bwi post changeover on the nam soundings. NAM is great for everyone after the changeover...has the longest and most significant period of snow in the region of any guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 last year, the GFS routinely was too far west with the precip remember 12/26? NAM never budged in this range in NOT giving us anything and the GFS was as much as 10"+ for mby I think the GFS is just the GFS, great run or two, then fumbles, catches back on, then another fumble and this is not because I don't like the solution, but because it did this to us all last year...came too far west with systems/precip shields i remember, let's see what the 12z guidance does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM is great for everyone after the changeover...has the longest and most significant period of snow in the region of any guidance. 6z NAM is so cold, it hardly has any rain at all! Especially for colder spots like IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Half of the mets calling for some snow, the other half saying just a cold rain this morning at various outlets. It will be interesting to see who is right. Either way, I am heading west tomorrow to try to get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 6z NAM is so cold, it hardly has any rain at all! Especially for colder spots like IAD. Wish I could lock that NAM up right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm heading west, but to head to State College, PA, to sit outside all afternoon, tailgate, watch a football game, and afterword, realize that even in my mid-30s, I'm too old for sitting outside in cold and snow all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not right now...you can make the argument that the NAM and ECMWF have superior spatial/vertical resolution to the GFS, something that might make a difference in a marginal event for some. The WAA in the GFS is just much stronger (over our region) than either the NAM and ECMWF and the dynamical cooling isn't sufficient in the GFS to wash out all the warm layer before the precipitation moves out...i still think we still a changeover for some period of time in all three, so i'm comfortable saying we have a good chance at seeing a snowflake at DCA and BWI. Thanks a bunch. By 12z today perhaps we take things more verbatim model-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks a bunch. By 12z today perhaps we take things more verbatim model-wise? 18z probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In looking at the 00z Euro thru accuwx-pro, it is definitely much colder than the GFS, the GFS/RGEM are both warm and they're both good models from what I hear. I'm torn, but it's 1 day out now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In looking at the 00z Euro thru accuwx-pro, it is definitely much colder than the GFS, the GFS/RGEM are both warm and they're both good models from what I hear. I'm torn, but it's 1 day out now... The Canadian models tend to run a little warm. GFS might be wrong or it might be on to something; hard to tell. In seasons past, a Euro/NAM agreement was usually a lock, but I've recently seen the GFS school them both so who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The Canadian models tend to run a little warm. GFS might be wrong or it might be on to something; hard to tell. In seasons past, a Euro/NAM agreement was usually a lock, but I've recently seen the GFS school them both so who knows... Thanks, agree def tough, one of them is way off. I hope the GFS is on crack but I have an unscientific feeling it might be onto something. Now would be a great time for another 12/26 blunder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How strongly do we rely on the SREFS at this time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How strongly do we rely on the SREFS at this time frame? I hear they're good, they trended warmer from 21z to 03Z. So SREF/RGEM/GFS all warm, UKMETEURO/NAM all colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I hear they're good, they trended warmer from 00z to 06Z. So SREF/RGEM/GFS all warm, UKMETEURO/NAM all colder. This just 1 day out, pretty insane. There is no 00z/06z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There is no 00z/06z SREFs 21z/3z, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I hear they're good, they trended warmer from 00z to 06Z. So SREF/RGEM/GFS all warm, UKMETEURO/NAM all colder. This just 1 day out, pretty insane. It's not like they are polar opposites though. They just vary on temps by an amount that matters. They are not extremely far apart. Just enough to make a difference. This would be similar to having a situation of models forecasting 45 and rain vs 40 and rain. It just happens to be that we are talking about more of a precarious line to walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There is no 00z/06z SREFs My thinking exactly. What I did look at were the snow probability maps at 3z, and they look good for areas west of the Blue Ridge, perhaps a bit east. But DC and Baltimore are truly right on the edge of good/nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 In looking at the 00z Euro thru accuwx-pro, it is definitely much colder than the GFS, the GFS/RGEM are both warm and they're both good models from what I hear. I'm torn, but it's 1 day out now... How many times do we have to tell you that the Canadian models tend to run warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My thinking exactly. What I did look at were the snow probability maps at 3z, and they look good for areas west of the Blue Ridge, perhaps a bit east. But DC and Baltimore are truly right on the edge of good/nothing. What do you define as "good"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lets say the 12z NAM hold serve (and looks like the 00z run, i think the 06z run was too perfect) Do we start putting more eggs in its basket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How many times do we have to tell you that the Canadian models tend to run warm? As many times as we have to tell him that he will not experience damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How many times do we have to tell you that the Canadian models tend to run warm? I never denied that, nor did I deny that the Euro has a warm surface bias, but the GFS is warmer than both the RGEM & SREF which is why I brought it up. The fact that just because they tend to run warm doesn't mean they're on crack. Just picking the coldest models seems like superficial analysis, you could find a reason why any of the models could be wrong versus the other. As many times as we have to tell him that he will not experience damaging winds Thanks, love ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My thinking exactly. What I did look at were the snow probability maps at 3z, and they look good for areas west of the Blue Ridge, perhaps a bit east. But DC and Baltimore are truly right on the edge of good/nothing. The forecasting services have to definitely be relatively fearful of this one... Could get a white surprise in the dc/balt area.. or absolutely nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I never denied that, nor did I deny that the Euro has a warm surface bias, but the GFS is warmer than both the RGEM & SREF which is why I brought it up. The fact that just because they tend to run warm doesn't mean they're on crack. Just picking the coldest models seems like superficial analysis, you could find a reason why any of the models could be wrong versus the other. No but it tends to run warm. Which is why they are warmer then the other models. I don't get your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The SREFS are not warmer at 3z than 21z ( I am checking at 12z and 18z tomorrow) at the surface. If anything they are a little colder. There is a bit of warmer temps at 850 in the DC - Balt corridor at 18z on the latest 3z run compared to the 21z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I never denied that, nor did I deny that the Euro has a warm surface bias, but the GFS is warmer than both the RGEM & SREF which is why I brought it up. The fact that just because they tend to run warm doesn't mean they're on crack. Just picking the coldest models seems like superficial analysis, you could find a reason why any of the models could be wrong versus the other. Nobody is doing this............but biases DO factor in and that's why people are less inclined to accept the RGEM warm solution. Also, the SREF's might have a few members skewing the mean. It's not a single model - it's an ENSEMBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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