mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'll be sure to tone it down if I get snow tomorrow nah, it is what it is you should do much better than I the Euro says that 7 miles west as the cow flies from mby gets about 5" more than me but that's always the case in these kinds of storms you should hang out atop Oregon Ridge; it should do even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This storm is going to make it seem like a very long winter. Most people think winter starts with the first snow. An October to march winter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Remember we have not been below 32 at ALL this winter. The ground is warm..don't see how this sticks to road till dark since I don't have to go to school , that's not an issue for me I just want to see snow like the NAM is advertising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This storm is going to make it seem like a very long winter. Most people think winter starts with the first snow. An October to march winter this year. this storm and the SE ridge the Euro is showing at day 10 I'm sure you'll be posting "It's almost 70, I can't believe we were following a snow storm 7-8 days ago" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 6z Gfs is still warm but outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this storm and the SE ridge the Euro is showing at day 10 I'm sure you'll be posting "It's almost 70, I can't believe we were following a snow storm 7-8 days ago" That could happen in the dead of winter too but winter starts tomorrow my friend as far as I'm concerened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 6z Gfs is still warm but outlier NCEP doesn't have 6Z yet where you getting it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Accuweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Accuweather warmer than 0Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It also has nearly 2 inches of liquid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 warmer than 0Z? Same as 0z but warmer than euro nam and other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Same as 0z but warmer than euro nam and other models OK, it could just be something that will correct itself after ingestion of 12Z data....unless it's right and the NAM and Euro are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Let's say we get 4 inches at Dulles ...that would count for 2011-12 winter right? We would be above normal snow till January 10 or simething Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Let's say we get 4 inches at Dulles ...that would count for 2011-12 winter right? We would be above normal snow till January 10 or simething well, if we are stuck clinging onto AN snowfall for the season until 1/10, then we got problems because that assumes we get nothing else between then and now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 anyone notice how crushing the 6Z is? probably more snow than the 00Z I did. And it was. At least some run to run consistency at this point. I see WBAL in Baltimore with Pann went with 1-2 inches for the I-95 coordior from DC to Balt on air this morning. Not a bad first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Let's say we get 4 inches at Dulles ...that would count for 2011-12 winter right? We would be above normal snow till January 10 or simething That's correct... season runs July 1st - June 30th (at least that's how the NWS does it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Remember we have not been below 32 at ALL this winter. The ground is warm..don't see how this sticks to road till dark It was summer five weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 OK, it could just be something that will correct itself after ingestion of 12Z data....unless it's right and the NAM and Euro are wrong I know they say the off hour runs are still fairly accurate but it is hard not to want to toss them out when they make these jumps in either track or temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Whether it snows or not, it's nice to see a coastal low with a NE high like this -- bodes well for winter. Wasn't the ridiculously chilly/rainy Saturday we had on Oct 1st from a coastal low? I couldn't believe we had mid 40s and steady rain that early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well...if the 6z NAM is right I think the picture of my trees in the leaf thread will be my only evidence that i had trees....17" lol...cut it in half? 8.5"....cut that in half? 4"? cut that in half?....how many times are you supposed to do that? 0z GFS had a nice thump here with a fair amount of qpf and 2m temps 32-33....haven't seen the 6z yet....euro looked fine to me...UKMET as well...seems like flakes in the air and grill coverage are close to a lock.....maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well...if the 6z NAM is right I think the picture of my trees in the leaf thread will be my only evidence that i had trees....17" lol...cut it in half? 8.5"....cut that in half? 4"? cut that in half?....how many times are you supposed to do that? 0z GFS had a nice thump here with a fair amount of qpf and 2m temps 32-33....haven't seen the 6z yet....euro looked fine to me...UKMET as well...seems like flakes in the air and grill coverage are close to a lock.....maybe Say goodbye to your stock at your store The masses attack the stores starting this morning I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Say goodbye to your stock at your store The masses attack the stores starting this morning I bet. have the local news people said anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 have the local news people said anything? They have not been fear mongering as they can sometimes do...but you know how DC folks are with snow. Plus the winter storm watch should get heavily publicized this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 IAD goes to snow probably around 16-17z on the 6z GFS. DCA and BWI near 20z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 IAD goes to snow probably around 16-17z on the 6z GFS. DCA and BWI near 20z. Looks like some good snow at bwi post changeover, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just peeked at the 6z NAM. Talk about holding serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like some good snow at bwi post changeover, no? Not really...the 6z GFS is a warm mess...we end up going to something like +3 (850 hPa) at 12z on Saturday....even when the surface temperatures crash, there's still a bit of a warm layer at 18z between 750 hPa and 900 hPa so we lose most of the deformation to rain....whereas the 6z NAM stays sub-freezing at 850 hPa and the 0z ECMWF only gets to about 0 to +1C at 850 hPA on Saturday at 12z and both are -3 to -4 C at 850 hPa at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not really...the 6z GFS is a warm mess...we end up going to something like +3 (850 hPa) at 12z on Saturday....even when the surface temperatures crash, there's still a bit of a warm layer at 18z between 750 hPa and 900 hPa so we lose most of the deformation to rain....whereas the 6z NAM stays sub-freezing at 850 hPa and the 0z ECMWF only gets to about 0 to +1C at 850 hPA on Saturday at 12z and both are -3 to -4 C at 850 hPa at 18z. Do you have any opinions on what model you'd give more weight? Just 24hrs out and huge differences between the NAM & GFS, Euro maybe in the middle but closer to the NAM from the looks of the 540 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not really...the 6z GFS is a warm mess...we end up going to something like +3 (850 hPa) at 12z on Saturday....even when the surface temperatures crash, there's still a bit of a warm layer at 18z between 750 hPa and 900 hPa so we lose most of the deformation to rain....whereas the 6z NAM stays sub-freezing at 850 hPa and the 0z ECMWF only gets to about 0 to +1C at 850 hPA on Saturday at 12z and both are -3 to -4 C at 850 hPa at 18z. last year, the GFS routinely was too far west with the precip remember 12/26? NAM never budged in this range in NOT giving us anything and the GFS was as much as 10"+ for mby I think the GFS is just the GFS, great run or two, then fumbles, catches back on, then another fumble and this is not because I don't like the solution, but because it did this to us all last year...came too far west with systems/precip shields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS ensemble is a little colder then the op. Edit: After double checking it comes in quite a bit cooler then the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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