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Tracking the Late October Potential


stormtracker

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  On 10/29/2011 at 2:28 AM, Ian said:

it's weird it looks like it wants to go northwest of us then it just slams right across the area before resuming it's previous direction.

It seems like it is a response to the development of the low along the mid atlantic coast. As the low really gets wound up it pulls everything in tighter. This pulls the vort due east towards the low before resuming a northeast movement once everything is aligned. Its a weird evolution for sure but not out of the realm of possibility.

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  On 10/29/2011 at 2:43 AM, usedtobe said:

I bet you it is by someone at TDL for verification purposes but where and whether it is easily assessable is something I ahve no idea about.

Probably a useless exercise anyway... ;)

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  On 10/29/2011 at 2:43 AM, EastCoast NPZ said:

all rain in Stephens City.

Elevation is a biggie tonight. I'm probably close to 300 feet higher than you. And, regarding something that Wes said earlier about thundersnow, I noticed in one of the NAM surface forecasts (text version, don't remember what that's called) that it mentioned a period of thundersnow tomorrow morning. Seems to be a pretty dynamic system.

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  On 10/29/2011 at 2:41 AM, usedtobe said:

I do wonder, If early tomorrow Winchester or even better Leesburg start getting S+ with thundersnow we'll probably be getting a huge hint at which solution is going to be right. I've leaned towards the GSF during most of the storm but It very well might be too warm. I guess we'll know in around 8 to 10 hours or sooner.

That was going to be my bellweather as well.

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  On 10/29/2011 at 2:41 AM, usedtobe said:

I do wonder, If early tomorrow Winchester or even better Leesburg start getting S+ with thundersnow we'll probably be getting a huge hint at which solution is going to be right. I've leaned towards the GSF during most of the storm but It very well might be too warm. I guess we'll know in around 8 to 10 hours or sooner.

0z NAM and 21z SREF have me feeling a bit more optimistic right now. Its getting really close range to be taking the thermal profiles of a global over a high res model. Plus, its not just the temperature profile, I think the entire evolution of the storm took a step in the right direction on the NAM and looks even more encouraging then 18z even if sensible weather results were the same.

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  On 10/29/2011 at 2:52 AM, stormtracker said:

That was going to be my bellweather as well.

I was just going to use that word in another post to Dave in his observation thread saying his reports would be our bellweather. Either great minds think alike or total weenies do. I'm not going to wait for the GFS.

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  On 10/29/2011 at 2:41 AM, usedtobe said:

I do wonder, If early tomorrow Winchester or even better Leesburg start getting S+ with thundersnow we'll probably be getting a huge hint at which solution is going to be right. I've leaned towards the GSF during most of the storm but It very well might be too warm. I guess we'll know in around 8 to 10 hours or sooner.

I think I hear Ji running up and down throughout the hood singing to your post here.

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  On 10/29/2011 at 2:56 AM, usedtobe said:

I was just going to use that word in another post to Dave in his observation thread saying his reports would be our bellweather. Either great minds think alike or total weenies do. I'm not going to wait for the GFS.

Will be ringing bells once things get going here.

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  On 10/29/2011 at 2:56 AM, usedtobe said:

I was just going to use that word in another post to Dave in his observation thread saying his reports would be our bellweather. Either great minds think alike or total weenies do. I'm not going to wait for the GFS.

I vote for weenies... Especially you

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  On 10/29/2011 at 2:56 AM, usedtobe said:

I was just going to use that word in another post to Dave in his observation thread saying his reports would be our bellweather. Either great minds think alike or total weenies do. I'm not going to wait for the GFS.

Come on pops, stay up for the GFS.

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  On 10/29/2011 at 2:56 AM, usedtobe said:

I was just going to use that word in another post to Dave in his observation thread saying his reports would be our bellweather. Either great minds think alike or total weenies do. I'm not going to wait for the GFS.

How about a stemwinder instead of a bellwether?:lol:

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  On 10/29/2011 at 3:08 AM, Ji said:

have we ever gotten a blizzard with a hurricane on a map? Have we ever got a blizzard when it was in the 90s the month before?

Are either of those even correct?

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  On 10/29/2011 at 3:11 AM, zwyts said:

keep your expectations flexible....The NAM really has epic bust potential.....If you get 1-3", that would be pretty amazing for October

they are flexible..i am excepting a storm from 1-11 inches. Ill wait to see what euro and gfs say--if they start trending colder...then 4-8 would be realistic

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  On 10/29/2011 at 3:13 AM, MN Transplant said:

Don't know if it goes here or the obs thread, but we are seriously close to challenging the all-time min max temp for October. 40 for DCA. 43 and dropping, and it isn't going to go up tomorrow.

yeah that came up a few days ago.. seemed like a stretch. would be kinda cool. when do we ever break those kind of records anymore?

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