TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:12 PM, chris87 said: Agreed, takes a bit longer to change over than the 6z, but seems to be in line with the ECMWF....great deformation band.... Music to the ears of those wishing for snow in the 95 corridor and just NW of the interstate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Enough with standard atmospheric analysis, here's the clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:13 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I think you've stated the reason that this is probably a forecasting nightmare for the areas in and around DC. The forecasters face the wrath of an angry public with either forecast (provided its wrong). I do not envy those guys their jobs on this one. This forecast can make the best look really dumb..i don't envy anyone in that position today...we're talking gradients that even a 12 km mesoscale model like the NAM shouldn't' be expected to be entirely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the changeover in the I-95 corridor is actually delayed this run by a warm layer around 700 hPa....the low level temps (850 and below) support changeover closer to 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:11 PM, yoda said: h5 vort very strong entering SW VA at hr 27 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif At 30 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif Looks like its going to go through South Central VA over RIC Wes should like this. N and W still look to be the place to be, but even DCA gets in on the fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:15 PM, chris87 said: This forecast can make the best look really dumb..i don't envy anyone in that position today...we're talking gradients that even a 12 km mesoscale model like the NAM shouldn't' be expected to be entirely correct. I don't envy the forecasters at all... DC could get nothing to rain to at the most extreme close to warning criteria snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:10 PM, MN Transplant said: Closest the 850 line gets to DC is around 16z, looks like it is turning after that. By 18z-19z it is snowing in DC. That's later then the 06Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 h7 fields show -15 UVVs hrs 27 and 30 acorss the LWX area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:13 PM, MN Transplant said: Enough with standard atmospheric analysis, here's the clown map Thought would be more in Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:15 PM, chris87 said: This forecast can make the best look really dumb..i don't envy anyone in that position today...we're talking gradients that even a 12 km mesoscale model like the NAM shouldn't' be expected to be entirely correct. Delete this if it's storm-mode-necessary, but this all sounds like an argument for improving the teaching of statistics and probability in our high schools... there should be a Union of Concerned Meterologists pushing this stuff or something. It would lead to massive productivity savings over a lifetime if people understood probability better (especially low probability/high impact) based on reaction to weather alone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:19 PM, sbos_wx said: Thought would be more in Metro The delay in changover Chris87 mentions affects it... still its 4-5" just NW of I-95 corridor... and 4" in DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:17 PM, chris87 said: the changeover in the I-95 corridor is actually delayed this run by a warm layer around 700 hPa....the low level temps (850 and below) support changeover closer to 12z... That would explain my previous post.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:17 PM, chris87 said: the changeover in the I-95 corridor is actually delayed this run by a warm layer around 700 hPa....the low level temps (850 and below) support changeover closer to 12z... Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:17 PM, chris87 said: the changeover in the I-95 corridor is actually delayed this run by a warm layer around 700 hPa....the low level temps (850 and below) support changeover closer to 12z... Could that not be overcome by the intense rates the h7 maps are showing with their 10-15 UVVs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At least half of this is rain most likely... but thats a whole lot of QPF that the 12z NAM is printing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:22 PM, yoda said: Could that not be overcome by the intense rates the h7 maps are showing with their 10-15 UVVs? I would rather see the vort go south of us instead of right over us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:24 PM, chris87 said: I would rather see the vort go south of us instead of right over us... Yes, the h5 vort does at hr 33... it went into SW VA 27, C VA (near RIC) at 30, the over us or slightly SE of DCA at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:25 PM, yoda said: Yes, the h5 vort does at hr 33... it went into SW VA 27, C VA (near RIC) at 30, the over us or slightly SE of DCA at 33 All we really need is the trough to dig a bit more, and we're good with the vort, which I suspect would eliminate the warm nose at 700, in tandem with the velocities shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:24 PM, chris87 said: I would rather see the vort go south of us instead of right over us... That is the thing i have been watching. Not exactly the best track if it goes NNW through VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i still feel ike the nam surface is fooling us but who knows anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:17 PM, stormtracker said: Wes should like this. N and W still look to be the place to be, but even DCA gets in on the fun The surface temps at 15Z is 35 and change on the NAM and the 700mb temp is like minus 0.6. The above freezing level extends to 950 mb and then it's below freezing. Looks like a snow marginal snow sounding for DC with temps still in the mid 30s at 18Z. IAD looked like they would be snow by 15Z or so based on the soundings I looked at. (the Plymouth ones). As Chris has noted. this is a low confidence forecast no matter where you are forecasting for as it would take very minor changes to the profiles to have them be almost all rain like the GFS or have an extended period of snow like last night's NAM. I'd like to see the GFS waffle back to a more nam like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:27 PM, Ian said: i still feel ike the nam surface is fooling us but who knows anymore I think it was Wes that said yesterday he preferred the NAM for LL temps rather than the GFS which I thought was interesting. So if he prefers the NAM, and the EURO is similar, you can put two and two together. (Again, not sure if it was Wes or not but I know it was a red tag) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:27 PM, Ian said: i still feel ike the nam surface is fooling us but who knows anymore It could be... but for the past few runs its been banging the drum for good snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:27 PM, H2O said: That is the thing i have been watching. Not exactly the best track if it goes NNW through VA Yeo, I'd like it clearly south of then east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Vort looking nice on wv loop: http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 Getting its act together. I wish the track on the nam was further SE though. Game of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:29 PM, sbos_wx said: I think it was Wes that said yesterday he preferred the NAM for LL temps rather than the GFS which I thought was interesting. So if he prefers the NAM, and the EURO is similar, you can put two and two together. (Again, not sure if it was Wes or not but I know it was a red tag) I said that with the caveat about having the other features like the 500 vort and 850 mb low tracks beign the same. If they are different, I'd probably go with the GFS. If they are almost identical I'd go with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:32 PM, usedtobe said: I said that with the caveat about having the other features like the 500 vort and 850 mb low tracks beign the same. If they are different, I'd probably go with the GFS. If they are almost identical I'd go with the NAM. Thanks for clarifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:29 PM, sbos_wx said: I think it was Wes that said yesterday he preferred the NAM for LL temps rather than the GFS which I thought was interesting. So if he prefers the NAM, and the EURO is similar, you can put two and two together. (Again, not sure if it was Wes or not but I know it was a red tag) I know what he said, that's not quite it. I know people want the coldest scenario here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:32 PM, usedtobe said: I said that with the caveat about having the other features like the 500 vort and 850 mb low tracks beign the same. If they are different, I'd probably go with the GFS. If they are almost identical I'd go with the NAM. I know you were pointing to the earlier NAM outputs about them showing some instability. Are we still seeing that with the 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On 10/28/2011 at 2:25 PM, yoda said: Yes, the h5 vort does at hr 33... it went into SW VA 27, C VA (near RIC) at 30, the over us or slightly SE of DCA at 33 Looks like the NAM is down by the KY, TN, NC, VA border region at 24, then shoots up over Harrisonburg by 30, then right over Philly at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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