Allsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS running yet? 1130 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00Z NAM BUFKIT Output New Brunswick, NJ - QPF as Snow: 1.17" - Accumulation: 9.0" (11.3" falls) (I personally doubt these ratios but we will see) - 2m Temps: Start around 44F and plummet down to 33F as snowfall kicks in. - Forecasting -45 omega (lol) just below the snow growth region. - Wet bulb temperature reaches 32F at surface at 21Z. I shudder to ask, but any other requests? I'll do Newark and NYC and maybe MMU. Don't have much time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ARW's are your mean outlier ETA 5 also likely screwing things up tremendously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Tell me that doesn't look like 12/19 in terms of qpf distribution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ETA 5 also likely screwing things up tremendously. man that member is bi-polar. Anyway, thats a nice shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00Z NAM BUFKIT Output New Brunswick, NJ - QPF as Snow: 1.17" - Accumulation: 9.0" (11.3" falls) (I personally doubt these ratios but we will see) - 2m Temps: Start around 44F and plummet down to 33F as snowfall kicks in. - Forecasting -45 omega (lol) just below the snow growth region. - Wet bulb temperature reaches 32F at surface at 21Z. I shudder to ask, but any other requests? I'll do Newark and NYC and maybe MMU. Don't have much time. do HPN and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00Z NAM BUFKIT Output New Brunswick, NJ - QPF as Snow: 1.17" - Accumulation: 9.0" (11.3" falls) (I personally doubt these ratios but we will see) - 2m Temps: Start around 44F and plummet down to 33F as snowfall kicks in. - Forecasting -45 omega (lol) just below the snow growth region. - Wet bulb temperature reaches 32F at surface at 21Z. I shudder to ask, but any other requests? I'll do Newark and NYC and maybe MMU. Don't have much time. Can I get LGA? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here we are on October 27th, and these are the SREF's at 51 hours. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21TYPNE_21z/f51.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here we are on October 27th, and these are the SREF's at 51 hours. http://www.meteo.psu...PNE_21z/f51.gif ETA5 says congrats Ithaca, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 KTEB. Can I get LGA, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 [i shudder to ask, but any other requests? I'll do Newark and NYC and maybe MMU. Don't have much time. k56n please, sandy hook, nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 00Z NAM BUFKIT Output New Brunswick, NJ - QPF as Snow: 1.17" - Accumulation: 9.0" (11.3" falls) (I personally doubt these ratios but we will see) - 2m Temps: Start around 44F and plummet down to 33F as snowfall kicks in. - Forecasting -45 omega (lol) just below the snow growth region. - Wet bulb temperature reaches 32F at surface at 21Z. I shudder to ask, but any other requests? I'll do Newark and NYC and maybe MMU. Don't have much time. HPN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00Z NAM BUFKIT Output New Brunswick, NJ - QPF as Snow: 1.17" - Accumulation: 9.0" (11.3" falls) (I personally doubt these ratios but we will see) - 2m Temps: Start around 44F and plummet down to 33F as snowfall kicks in. - Forecasting -45 omega (lol) just below the snow growth region. - Wet bulb temperature reaches 32F at surface at 21Z. I shudder to ask, but any other requests? I'll do Newark and NYC and maybe MMU. Don't have much time. I'll take LGA if you have the time, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00Z NAM BUFKIT Output New Brunswick, NJ - QPF as Snow: 1.17" - Accumulation: 9.0" (11.3" falls) (I personally doubt these ratios but we will see) - 2m Temps: Start around 44F and plummet down to 33F as snowfall kicks in. - Forecasting -45 omega (lol) just below the snow growth region. - Wet bulb temperature reaches 32F at surface at 21Z. I shudder to ask, but any other requests? I'll do Newark and NYC and maybe MMU. Don't have much time. MMU please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 rgem precip type 48 hours. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 clown maps... kuchera http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif 10:1 ratio http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 KISP please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We'll have the higher resolution RGEM precipitation graphics momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ETA 5 also likely screwing things up tremendously. Looks like ETA 3 and ETA 6 are balancing it out somewhat. RGEM looks significantly further east than 18z... maybe we see a trend east with the models tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There are always two ETA members farther west than everything and two ETA members farther east than everything. That's not really skewing the mean that much. The ridiculous ARW bombs are, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 We'll have the higher resolution RGEM precipitation graphics momentarily. looks a decent bit warmer than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Disclaimer: I think these snow totals are over done (on the accumulation side of things). Newark, NJ - QPF as Snow: 1.02" - Accumulation: 7.6" (10.5" falls) - 2m Temps: Start around 45F and plummet down to 33F/32F as snowfall kicks in. - Forecasting -30 omega just below the snow growth region. - Wet bulb temperature approaches 32F at surface at 21Z. (Never reaches) Teterboro - QPF as Snow: 0.97" - Accumulation: 7.2" (9.7" falls) - 2m Temps: Start around 46F and plummet down to 33F/32F as snowfall kicks in. - Forecasting -25 omega just below the snow growth region. White Plains - QPF as Snow: 0.87" - Accumulation: 6.5" (8.7" falls) - 2m Temps: 45 down to 33f. La Guardia - QPF as Snow: 0.97" - Accumulation: 6.9" (9.7") - 2m Temps: 47 down to 33f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like ETA 3 and ETA 6 are balancing it out somewhat. RGEM looks significantly further east than 18z... maybe we see a trend east with the models tonight? RGEM funky that far out. Funky inside of 24 hours sometimes, but not like it is at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think we should have a set list of readings each storm instead of 300 members of this site asking the same question for their location. maybe trenton, belmar, new brunswick, poconos, newark nj, sussex nj , nyc , khpn, islip I think with that list you can figure what to expect for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 RGEM 45 hrs...N NJ getting killed. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2011102800/I_nw_r1_EST_2011102800_045.png Heavy snow all the way to Newark at 46 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2011102800/I_nw_r1_EST_2011102800_046.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We have seen much sharper gradients than the Blizzard of 1996... 1996 did not really have much of a gradient until you hit North of Scranton. NJ-PA-SE NY were buried 20-30+. December 25, 2002 for example. The gradient just south of Albany was insane in 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think we should have a set list of readings each storm instead of 300 members of this site asking the same question for their location. maybe trenton, belmar, new brunswick, poconos, newark nj, sussex nj , nyc , khpn, islip I think with that list you can figure what to expect for your area. No one in the NYC metro forum lives in the poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ISP: 8.0" accumulate (10.9" fall) 47F down to 33F by 00Z Sunday QPF: 1.10" () MMU: QPF: 0.93" (all snow) Snowfall: 6.3" (8.9" falls) Down to 32/33F by 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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