Allsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21z sref for snow probabilities Can you post them John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM H5 looks essentially the same. But it's slightly less amplified and maybe a few hours slower to develop. Should still be good, and I can't see anything to argue that it would come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM may be a little de-amplified, upstream ridge is a touch flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 wrong ones that is from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The h5 heights are de-amplified by about 25 miles. I don't think the end result should be dramatically different--but it definitely is open to nudge east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 wrong ones that is from earlier. [/quote ] New one....sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 The h5 heights are de-amplified by about 25 miles. I don't think the end result should be dramatically different--but it definitely is open to nudge east this run. Exactly, if anything this will go east. No GFS solution on this run..... The phase is really on 24-30 hours away, so were running out of time for big time shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Miller A juiced all the way huge 700MB saturated RH field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 New one....sorry Wow 45% of 12" in October. Someone pinch me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 sim radar 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow 45% of 12" in October. Someone pinch me *pinch* but mother of god the percentage's of 8+ let alone 12 inches is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM continues digging the shortwave through 39. It's interesting how the models are taking the pva that spawns the strong surface low and moving it more ne up the coast instead of e as we saw earlier. This is probably the reason why we're seeing the storm tuck in near the coast initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM at 39h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 42 hours: Whoa nelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 nam looks awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 nam looks awesome just about to say this. Vort will really get this baby cranking at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 nam looks awesome Hr 48 going to be a mother of god image. Looks to be dam near snow for kphl at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 48: Tighter precip gradient, a bit drier, but colder. Hell, If this is the difference between 8 inches of gloppy wet snow and 6 inches of powder, I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 that has a very 12/19/09 track, which was outside of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Insane CCB http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F28%2F2011+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=048&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the new hotness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Insane CCB http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M is that snow for long island or changing to snow? cant tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 48 hour sounding off the NAM for ISP looks like all wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 All snow bridgeport CT as of 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 0z NAM looks great. Very energetic and cold with respect to season. Obviously we're going to see some run to run differences. But with the 18z GFS and the 21z SREF fairly far NW and warm (GFS), I was hoping to see something further SE and cold to counterbalance the recent trend. Unless you're deep in the interior, this is a great run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 All snow bridgeport CT as of 48 hours I would happily accept that sounding in mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Much less snow then 18z. NYC went from 12"+ to 4". I went from 12" to 2", in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 During hour 48 HPN LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Much less snow then 18z. CLown map, means nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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