Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 One more NAM...simulated reflectivity. http://www.twisterda...REF_SURFACE.png The things I would do..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 anyone have a map for 11/6/1953?...that was one of the earliest snowstorms on record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 at 400 feet a little to your south. Drizzle and a few flakes at 37 That's no fun. Well there is a latitudinal component to the thermal gradient. Lowlands in northern Dutchess Co mixed with snow hours before I noticed any mixing in Putnam. It might not work out for you this go around, but your 400ft might serve you well on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 anyone have a map for 11/6/1953?...that was one of the earliest snowstorms on record... that storm is featured in the KU book in the early and late season storm chapter. It featured a strong cutoff upper low that slowly meandered east from the Ohio Valley into southern PA. It induced strong low pressure off the NC coast which intensified to about 992 mb.. There was an ananomously cod High pressure north of the Great Lakes and New England. The storm tracked northwest and came inland into Northeastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well after looking at the last several runs I had to jump in to see if earthlight has told everyone he loves them yet..My jaw dropped looking at the 12z GFS at work. And I forgot who mentioned the upper-level jet streaks playing a role in enhanced forcing...I'd agree with that and can see them clearly on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ultimate clown map..from the nam with 10:1 ratios. http://wxcaster4.com...OWFALL_84HR.gif 18z NAM for KHPN 25.9" http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=khpn This would be a get extra gas for the generator run for folks in Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 anyone have a map for 11/6/1953?...that was one of the earliest snowstorms on record... East of the city changed to rain a lot of PA NJ MD and WNY in the 10+. It involved a closed 500mb low and a nonprogressive troff. Totally different than a fast moving troff like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z NAM for KHPN 25.9" http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=khpn This would be a get extra gas for the generator run for folks in Westchester. 19:1 ratios what snowfall algorithm is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 19:1 ratios what snowfall algorithm is that? I don't know what was used. Ratios for KLGA are 25.1 at one point. Way overdone with a total 31.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ratios of 5:1 look good per the sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC had three October snowfalls, Two of them were .5" and one was .8". If the NAM or even the GFS verifies it would be a new major record and statistically off the charts. So I would be very careful before I make the official forecast. I will wait for the0 Z and 12Z runs then decide. One thing thou is that the weather is getting crazier by the day-year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm surprised frost/freeze warnings haven't been expanded across most of the area tonight -- already down to 42 with a N wind here. Once skies clear, we'll be down into the 30s. Feels like winter out there tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm surprised frost/freeze warnings haven't been expanded across most of the area tonight -- already down to 42 with a N wind here. Once skies clear, we'll be down into the 30s. Feels like winter out there tonight. I am now down to 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Feb 5 2001 really seems like a great analog right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Needless to say, people shouldn't look at these weenie snow charts. First off, the snow will take some time to really accumulate and the ratios will be 6 or 7:1. Right now it's pretty safe to say that the first half of the storm should be rain along the coast, with the snow setting in as the low departs and N winds really taking hold. It could still be one heck of a run for 6 hours or so under what bands pivot through. And still very significant-if 0.75" liquid can fall in that time, that can still be 4-6" of snow in any location. I have a feeling this storm will be full of surprises for many of us. Just don't be sad the next morning when just about all the snow will be gone. The ground is still very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Feb 5 2001 really seems like a great analog right now. I like December 25, 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC had three October snowfalls, Two of them were .5" and one was .8". If the NAM or even the GFS verifies it would be a new major record and statistically off the charts. So I would be very careful before I make the official forecast. I will wait for the0 Z and 12Z runs then decide. One thing thou is that the weather is getting crazier by the day-year. Its interesting that October snow is more favored around Philly than NYC and Boston. Philly had 2.1" on 10/10/1979, 2.0" on 10/19-20/1940, and 1.1" on 10/30-31/1925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 And I think the GFS might be out to lunch on its thermal profile given the dynamics going into the storm and the tightness it will probably take on. It will pull the cold air in on the western side, and most other models including the Euro, UKMET and NAM see this. I also don't think given how progressive the overall pattern is, that it will track so far west to make most of us rain due to warm advection or a dryslot. I see it tucking NNE for a time, then scooting ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I like December 25, 2002 Storm structure was significantly different in that storm. This one is much more similar to February 5, 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Its interesting that October snow is more favored around Philly than NYC and Boston. Philly had 2.1" on 10/10/1979, 2.0" on 10/19-20/1940, and 1.1" on 10/30-31/1925. I think that is due to the fact that Philly is not as close to the ocean as NYC is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Storm structure was significantly different in that storm. This one is much more similar to February 5, 2001. I like 2002 because of the rapid changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Its interesting that October snow is more favored around Philly than NYC and Boston. Philly had 2.1" on 10/10/1979, 2.0" on 10/19-20/1940, and 1.1" on 10/30-31/1925. Philly might be in a better spot than many around NYC and Boston given no wind trajectory over any water there. Boston might take a long time to switch completely to snow. Any east wind component kills them because of Boston Harbor. NYC can afford NNE winds because the trajectory is from the Hudson Valley/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Its interesting that October snow is more favored around Philly than NYC and Boston. Philly had 2.1" on 10/10/1979, 2.0" on 10/19-20/1940, and 1.1" on 10/30-31/1925. Probably due in large part to NYC and BOS located directly adjacent to the warm 60-65F October ocean. PHL at least has 50-60 miles between them and water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Philly getting those events is just luck IMO. What affects we might have from ocean, we make up for it with longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Probably due in large part to NYC and BOS located directly adjacent to the warm 60-65F October ocean. PHL at least has 50-60 miles between them and water. For me in Villanova, about 15 miles NW of PHL and about 500ft elevation, I'm liking my position in this event, that is of course IF it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 down to 37.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I like 2002 because of the rapid changeover. February 01 was relatively rapid as well. And had a pretty epic deformation band. Plus temps stayed just above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Needless to say, people shouldn't look at these weenie snow charts. First off, the snow will take some time to really accumulate and the ratios will be 6 or 7:1. Right now it's pretty safe to say that the first half of the storm should be rain along the coast, with the snow setting in as the low departs and N winds really taking hold. It could still be one heck of a run for 6 hours or so under what bands pivot through. And still very significant-if 0.75" liquid can fall in that time, that can still be 4-6" of snow in any location. I have a feeling this storm will be full of surprises for many of us. Just don't be sad the next morning when just about all the snow will be gone. The ground is still very warm. And hopefully those surprises will not include fallen trees and power lines causing power outages and flooded basements.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 41 in Long Beach. In a dynamically driven storm with this airmass, I'm liking my odds of going to snow for a while. It won't take all that much when we have heavy precip overhead and howling north winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 41 in Long Beach. In a dynamically driven storm with this airmass, I'm liking my odds of going to snow for a while. It won't take all that much when we have heavy precip overhead and howling north winds. I am at 39 here in Farmingdale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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