bluewave Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Always impressive to see when these vortmaxes reach 50 units. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Heres how historic this event is going to be.In my lifetime I saw frozen precip in October twice.1979 and 2002.The earliest inch I saw was on Veerans Day 1987.Whatever we get is going to be historic,whether it is wet snow,a coating or a sushy half inch.......I dont care.Its October for crying out loud....Enjoy it for what it is. NYC got screwed by the Veteran's day storm so badly, that was one of only a handful of storms to ever hit DC and BOS yet miss NYC. I think 1/26/87 was another one to do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_khpn.txt Hour 54-57 7.8 of snow 0.1 mile visibility 32 degrees 18" of total snow On October 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GEFS pretty similar to the OP at this point. Still think the W-E gradient will come into play. West of the city currently looks to be thumped by ~6 hrs of heavy wet snow. It's going to be a nail biter east of the city nearer to the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NYC got screwed by the Veteran's day storm so badly, that was one of only a handful of storms to ever hit DC and BOS yet miss NYC. I think 1/26/87 was another one to do the same. that is correct on 1/26/87.. Most of delaware, southern Maryland, southeastern NJ got more than a foot... NYC got about 4 inches. Extreme southeastern MA got over a foot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GEFS pretty similar to the OP at this point. Still think the W-E gradient will come into play. West of the city currently looks to be thumped by ~6 hrs of heavy wet snow. It's going to be a nail biter east of the city nearer to the coastal plain. They looked a bit warmer, but yeah still have backlash snow for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 They looked a bit warmer, but yeah still have backlash snow for the city. Theyre getting a little too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 They looked a bit warmer, but yeah still have backlash snow for the city. they are a lot warmer. 540 line barely is east of earthlight at the height of the storm. I am gonna pretend I didn't see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Just a little bit different than the NAM at KBDR 18z gfs. Other ones aren't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Twister Data 18z GFS snow maps show 9-12" for C NJ. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Twister Data 18z GFS snow maps show 9-12" for C NJ. WOW. Those are completely inaccurate and just assume a 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is all down right insane... To think White Plains may get 18" of snow in October is just comical.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 November 11th 1987 was mostly ice where I lived in Brooklyn...after 1983 nothing went right for major snowstorms in NYC...March 84 missed a big snowstorm by a few degrees...we got beat in January 88 twice...February 89...it got worse before getting better in the 1990's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This would complete the tree murder spree for the area if it happened. I cannot imagine how severe the power outages would be from this event, and to think they'd possibly be worse if not for some of the downed trees and subsequent pruning by the power companies following Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This would complete the tree murder spree for the area if it happened. I cannot imagine how severe the power outages would be from this event, and to think they'd possibly be worse if not for some of the downed trees and subsequent pruning by the power companies following Irene. Don't forget that there could be some gusty winds with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yeah, so there are a lot of rainy solutions in here, even for the n and w burbs. Hopefully there is some kind of feeback issue cuz its usually a flag to have the ensembles N & W of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Meanwhile it's down to 41 here in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This would complete the tree murder spree for the area if it happened. I cannot imagine how severe the power outages would be from this event, and to think they'd possibly be worse if not for some of the downed trees and subsequent pruning by the power companies following Irene. Yeah, I wouldn't park under any trees in areas that pick up the heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If anyone wants a *good* analog to the upcoming possible storm... February 5, 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If anyone wants a *good* analog to the upcoming possible storm... February 5, 2001. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2001/05-Feb-01.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If anyone wants a *good* analog to the upcoming possible storm... February 5, 2001. I checked your site and it looks like a sick deformation band setup over NJ. The coast got shafted most of the heavy echoes. I would be quite sad if that happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://www.njfreeway.../05-Feb-01.html wow, that does look pretty good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 regardless of how much if any snow we see, this is an impressive looking early season nor'easter. Winds are gonna be howling out there saturday! Along the coast, the wind will likely have just as much or more impact than snow (and magnify the tree damage any snow has). NAM showed well over 50 mph winds just offshore!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Observations from Putnam County around 7pm: Isolated mangled flakes and 38F near river level. Rain/snow mix at 36F at 200ft. Dusting and 35F at 400ft. Coating to half inch and 34F at 600ft 1.5", slushy roads, and 33F at 1000ft. It is a winter wonderland in the high country. Elevated terrain in northern Westchester is likely dusted white! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ultimate clown map..from the nam with 10:1 ratios. http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Observations from Putnam County around 7pm: Isolated mangled flakes and 38F near river level. Rain/snow mix at 36F at 200ft. Dusting and 35F at 400ft. Coating to half inch and 34F at 600ft 1.5", slushy roads, and 33F at 1000ft. It is a winter wonderland in the high country. Elevated terrain in northern Westchester is likely dusted white! at 400 feet a little to your south. Drizzle and a few flakes at 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 So if we cut that in half as we normally do in a winter storm setup, and cut it in half again to account for the soaking wet snowflakes, the projection is still for a sloppy few inches across the area. By no means blizzard conditions, but certainly a "Chrysanthemum Crusher." ultimate clown map..from the nam with 10:1 ratios. http://wxcaster4.com...OWFALL_84HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If anyone wants a *good* analog to the upcoming possible storm... February 5, 2001. lol, that is some pretty hefty totals up by me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 One more NAM...simulated reflectivity. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2011/10/27/18/NAM_221_2011102718_F54_CREF_SURFACE.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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