TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Anyone from a line of lets say Warren county to Orange county to Litchfield county is in for a once in a lifetime event this weekend.. You're just in here to rub it in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 stormvista clown maps have 8-12 inches of snow in NE NJ and NYC on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 just went out to the bodega to get a dutch....sleet mixing in with the rain, some flakes i think too but hard to tell. I'm ready for tonight's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 just went out to the bodega to get a dutch....sleet mixing in with the rain, some flakes i think too but hard to tell. lol. only in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You're just in here to rub it in.... No not at all.. I do think the coast gets in on the action but as more of a backend type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In certain ways, this sounds like it's similar to the 12/26/02 storm, where it rained in NYC/Long Island - temps were in the 40's to near 50 - the storm passed to our south and east- heights crashed and that huge deform band came through the NYC/LI area and I ended up w/ 6-8" of wet snow.. I'm not saying this storm is the SAME as that storm- but the reality of what may happen seems similar.. Jeff I was just thinking about this storm. It can play out the same way. That storm happened on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In certain ways, this sounds like it's similar to the 12/26/02 storm, where it rained in NYC/Long Island - temps were in the 40's to near 50 - the storm passed to our south and east- heights crashed and that huge deform band came through the NYC/LI area and I ended up w/ 6-8" of wet snow.. I'm not saying this storm is the SAME as that storm- but the reality of what may happen seems similar.. Jeff That was a vertically stacked storm though with a closed 500mb low. This is more similar to something like 3/15/99, a borderline scenario where heavy precipitation as the coastal low gets offshore allows for snow. http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us0315.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In certain ways, this sounds like it's similar to the 12/26/02 storm, where it rained in NYC/Long Island - temps were in the 40's to near 50 - the storm passed to our south and east- heights crashed and that huge deform band came through the NYC/LI area and I ended up w/ 6-8" of wet snow.. I'm not saying this storm is the SAME as that storm- but the reality of what may happen seems similar.. Jeff that my friend was the last time i saw a truly heaving banding of snow/change from rain the utter intensity was incredible. i got like 13" at my house in a matter of 5 or 6 hours, havent experienced anything like that since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Another thing is look at the 700mb low on the gfs to start, its over SE PA at 48 hours which is why everything is so much warmer then shifts into a perfect deform position. Not sure what to make of that, it also looks a little screwy at 500mb with some odd almost closed u shape 500 low at 48 which then opens up. It all looks back to "normal" at 54 hours which is when the fun starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Just had a brief, but unmistakeable wave of sleet pinging against my window in the office. Downtown Manhattan, about the ~40th floor so figure 400ft ASL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 the comma head is going to give us all heavy snow when it pivots through. every model shows it at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Down to 37 in nyack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 the comma head is going to give us all heavy snow when it pivots through. every model shows it at this point Ya just can't loose when the precip sheild colapses SE. Edit: unless you enjoy having electricity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 don't know if this was posted yet, but holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z gfs looks like a beast....also a tick or two W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 don't know if this was posted yet, but holy cow. 30% chance of seeing 12" of snow in October. What the...... IF the GFS shifts a touch to the southeast, thats basically what you get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 30% chance of 12+ lolol...the simple fact that is even in a probable range is just crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 No not at all.. I do think the coast gets in on the action but as more of a backend type event you should head even a little south to the high elevations of Monroe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That was a vertically stacked storm though with a closed 500mb low. This is more similar to something like 3/15/99, a borderline scenario where heavy precipitation as the coastal low gets offshore allows for snow. http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us0315.php IDK, there are analogs I'd draw on but not that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 6"-8" of snow for NYC off the gfs from the Raleighwx clown maps. The most it's shown for the gfs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 A lot of convective feedback on that gfs run, could explain the weird 700mb jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 you should head even a little south to the high elevations of Monroe! That area is a snow magnet! I used to live in Monroe for 12 yrs.. Anywhere from Storm King Mtn to Schnemunk Mtn is a snow lovers paradise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I have no doubt that 6-8" worth of QPF will fall around the city from this. well then we all better run to higher ground because everything will be flooded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 As far as I know, those SREF probabilities do not take into account accumulation, but rather the total snowfall. Would still be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 well then we all better run to higher ground because everything will be flooded Frozen QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 A lot of convective feedback on that gfs run, could explain the weird 700mb jump The coastal is bomoming the pressure drops at H7 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 well then we all better run to higher ground because everything will be flooded i hope he ment to say snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Heres how historic this event is going to be.In my lifetime I saw frozen precip in October twice.1979 and 2002.The earliest inch I saw was on Veerans Day 1987.Whatever we get is going to be historic,whether it is wet snow,a coating or a sushy half inch.......I dont care.Its October for crying out loud....Enjoy it for what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_kewr.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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