famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm leaning towards 2-4" around Trenton after having reviewed the GFS and NAM. Could go either way still, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hour 38, continues to head NNE. The MM5 is an absolutely perfect run for even NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hi Res models vs Low Res models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looking at extreme NW New Jersey, I am wondering if someone can reach twenty inches there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC up to 47 at 1PM, still think we could eek out a sub-50 high... certainly not hitting the forecast 53, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z ggem is well east of the GFS. It's warm though. Rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC up to 47 at 1PM, still think we could eek out a sub-50 high... certainly not hitting the forecast 53, though. Although it is interesting so see how low we can keep the daytime high, the overnight low is the big question. Especially since moderation will be limited tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z ggem is well east of the GFS. It's warm though. Rain to snow. That's not that warm. 540 line is basically on top of NYC. Very nice to see it east like the UKIE and MM5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i guess i phrased it wrong, your getting 2-3 inches no matter what, which is def more than us here, so we are in the position of taking what we can get, you should be sleeping like a baby tonight Not so fast there. If the gfs is correct and 500 closes off over NYC at 39 hrs...you will get doused in a persistent band of snow for the few hours after that period..and probably do better than the marginal coastal plain just to the west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looking at extreme NW New Jersey, I am wondering if someone can reach twenty inches there? Clearly yes. 1500ft should have no trouble accumulating throughout - plenty cold aloft and near or slightly below freezing at surface. If you assume 10:1 ratio it's basically a matter of getting enough QPF - in your case 2" liquid. If the thermal profiles are close to being correct, a 10:1 ratio would be too conservative, especially for the latter part of the storm. I think 20" might be just out of reach, but 12-16 on the hilltops seems very possible. Late October 2008, up in Orange/Sullivan and the Catskills is an example of what's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Was just looking at that. Hour 39 looks great for the city as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some very severe over reactions in this thread initially. The posts by eduggs and jm are spot on. This is not going to be all snow. It's October. However, the track is absolutely classic. We have some warm boundary layer temps to fight off initially but you can't deny what's going on here. Although the GFS is warmer, it's still showing the rapidly deepening low pressure offshore and very impressive frontogenic forcing and the potential for instability in banding and very impressive dynamic cooling. The westward tilt with height and the tuck northwest as the low is kicked by the h5 pva is classic. It's going to be a rain/snow transition event, but once it flips..it's going to feel like mid-winter. lets be realistic...whether it snows or not at your location (at this point of the season) doesnt really matter. However, I would think this type of storm/track bodes very nicely for the upcoming winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For reference purposes: Winter Precip Types by Thickness Values What Causes Thundersnow Wet Bulb Calculations General Winter Precipitation Forecasting Relationship between Jet Streak and Vorticity Generation Snow Sounding Cold Rain Sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some of the guys here at COD are working on smaller sector views for critical thickness...here is a look at the northeast sector off the 12z NAM. RED: 1000-700mb = 2840mCYAN: 850-700mb = 1540mYELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300mPURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mPURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mGREEN: 850-500mb = 4100mWHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400mBLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Talk about the Hudson being a dividing line... that looks more like I-95....just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 that looks more like I-95....just saying I actually thought of rephrasing... It was a NYC-Centric post... I'll take I-95... being say about 5 miles west of it. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The bottom line is, if you could draw up a late October scenario that would result in a mostly snow event, and lots of it for at least some people for this area, you would be hard pressed to do better than whats on the table here. My forecast per the Winter Storm Watch is for 6-10". If I get 2" I will be thrilled beyond belief, its October, not January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In the most general sense, when I see that sharp hook in the contour lines on the 500mb heights chart on the GGEM (near SE Pa hour 36), I know an intense storm is on the way. Of course thermodynamically it reflects a pocket of high vorticity and a positioning of jets that allow an efficient transfer of air from a developing low pressure center to a high pressure center. But without understanding the underlying dynamics, I can always rely on the look and feel of the graphics to tell much of the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 that looks more like I-95....just saying Thats before the CCB crosses NYC. Here is the update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some of the guys here at COD are working on smaller sector views for critical thickness...here is a look at the northeast sector off the 12z NAM. RED: 1000-700mb = 2840mCYAN: 850-700mb = 1540mYELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300mPURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mPURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mGREEN: 850-500mb = 4100mWHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400mBLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm That is an awesome map. Incredibly useful, too. Wow. Thanks a ton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I thought the 540 line looked a little weird on the UKMET and here is why. The surface is an unmitiaged torch for NYC. Here is the sounding. Its 3.4c with a dew in the mid 2's. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KNYC&mo=ukmet&pl=out4&ft=h36&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 that looks more like I-95....just saying The SSB MM5 in marginal situations usually is too far north and west with those depictions. I'm actually very surprised to see it be that close to the coast in this storm, I wouldn't have expected that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 that looks more like I-95....just saying That's hour 33. I don't think most of us on the coastal plain are realistically expecting any snow at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z ggem is well east of the GFS. It's warm though. Rain to snow. just look at the h7 low...that wouldnt be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's warm for Mount Earthlight as well on the UKMET at the surface. Of course I have no clue how well this model resolves 2m temps, so take that FWIW. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMMU&mo=ukmet&pl=skewt&ft=h36&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That is an awesome map. Incredibly useful, too. Wow. Thanks a ton! no problem sir. Since the new sectors aren't live on the site yet I will post them for each run through the day today and tonight for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Took these off T-Skillings fb page for his RPM model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 no problem sir. Since the new sectors aren't live on the site yet I will post them for each run through the day today and tonight for you guys. Awesome thanks for the hookup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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