bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It impressive that the banding lingers over the area past midnight on the GFS as the UL closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i knew it was worth getting off the coastal plain of NJ.....yea boyeeeee!!!! I see your in Danbury.. Dont hesitate to post in the HV thread.. The inland crew welcomes you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's going to be close here. Im far enough west but I'm not sure about far enough north-west. I'll take whatever I can get. dude dont be greedy. your sitting pretty right now. its us on the island that will be happy with a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 dude dont be greedy. your sitting pretty right now. its us on the island that will be happy with a coating I said I'll take whatever I get. Doesn't get less greedy than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some very severe over reactions in this thread initially. The posts by eduggs and jm are spot on. This is not going to be all snow. It's October. However, the track is absolutely classic. We have some warm boundary layer temps to fight off initially but you can't deny what's going on here. Although the GFS is warmer, it's still showing the rapidly deepening low pressure offshore and very impressive frontogenic forcing and the potential for instability in banding and very impressive dynamic cooling. The westward tilt with height and the tuck northwest as the low is kicked by the h5 pva is classic. It's going to be a rain/snow transition event, but once it flips..it's going to feel like mid-winter. Johm, thanks for the sane post; yes classic cyclogenesis going on and there are impressive dynamics driven, reminds me of February 5, 2001 and December 2002 Christmas storm when once it flipped to heavy snow, it all came together.... Still, if this was December, we would be going nuts over all snow version; a la December 2009 version of tremendous cyclogenesis going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A real beauty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 H500 is closed off; which is always a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I see your in Danbury.. Dont hesitate to post in the HV thread.. The inland crew welcomes you!! thanks, will do. i guess climo here is somewhat similiar to the HV, albeit a little SE so deff more warm air influence off the Long Island sound. i lived in CNJ all my life, pretty much, so this is pretty big new transition for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I said I'll take whatever I get. Doesn't get less greedy than that. i guess i phrased it wrong, your getting 2-3 inches no matter what, which is def more than us here, so we are in the position of taking what we can get, you should be sleeping like a baby tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's going to be close here. Im far enough west but I'm not sure about far enough north-west. I'll take whatever I can get. Yup, hopefully the 15 miles we are away from the city makes a good difference this time. If its going ot matter it's going to matter with this storm. I know 5 miles to my NW is golden for at least 4"+...but who knows NYC might get that as well. Im tempted to go 2-4" for both of us right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We'll probably turn out a little colder than the GFS, but not as cold as the NAM, in that case. The NAM's higher res is allowing it to pick up on dynamic cooling. However, the NAM is also probably overdoing precip intensity. This post is too reasonable to have come from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 at this stage i'll be happy even with flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's going to be close here. Im far enough west but I'm not sure about far enough north-west. I'll take whatever I can get. You don't have to worry about this...just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The one thing about this cyclone is the forecast path now from the NAM/GFS, even in January for coastal locations is slightly less than ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The NAM's westward push made me extremely nervous... but the GFS coming in a bit east and smidge cooler was calming. Still will wait a while before making travel plans... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We probably couldn't have asked for a better American WX almost 1st birthday storm. This whole year has been about the wildest that I have seen around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Talk about the Hudson being a dividing line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The NAM's westward push made me extremely nervous... but the GFS coming in a bit east and smidge cooler was calming. Still will wait a while before making travel plans... the nam is father west than the gfs right now. yet, it's got the dynamics cooling the entire column away from the coast. the gfs resolution likely won't grasp this in its entiret. but the nam may be slightly overdone. I still would take its thermal profile with more weight than the gfs. the truth probably lies between the two, which is where the euro will likely go. if it goes strongly in either direction, we've got a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hopefully I can get some nice winds here atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Someone already mentioned it, but, for emphasis-- Central Park is at 44 degrees, at noon on October 28th under clear skies. 44 degrees!!!! And dp temps are in the low and mid 20s throughout the region! This is basically a winter airmass in the northern mid-Atlantic. I'm really starting to think that forecasters should treat this as a fairly typical winter storm scenario away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Talk about the Hudson being a dividing line... Heavy precip is about to swing through NYC after this period. Similar to NAM. I'll post this map when we get to hour 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 MM5, well east of GFS.. Hour 36: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LGA sounding off MM5 at hour 35, looks lovely: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Can't use the frozen precip maps on the MM5 until the real mccoy starts, check it out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 for MM5 porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hour 37. low is well east of GFS and NAM. Perfect position: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Still snowing at hour 37. Here's LGA sounding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some very severe over reactions in this thread initially. The posts by eduggs and jm are spot on. This is not going to be all snow. It's October. However, the track is absolutely classic. We have some warm boundary layer temps to fight off initially but you can't deny what's going on here. Although the GFS is warmer, it's still showing the rapidly deepening low pressure offshore and very impressive frontogenic forcing and the potential for instability in banding and very impressive dynamic cooling. The westward tilt with height and the tuck northwest as the low is kicked by the h5 pva is classic. It's going to be a rain/snow transition event, but once it flips..it's going to feel like mid-winter. This is an interesting discussion from NYNJPA Weather - says no snow accumulation in NYC Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It should be noted that the MM5 has a tendancy to be east outside of 24 hours, so take that into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hour 37. low is well east of GFS and NAM. Perfect position: Still a bit early to be using high-res models like the MM5 but yes that's pure porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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