Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the 700 low actually is centered over western PA now before it contracts and moves east. That is pretty big shift. Forget the SLP, the mid levels are not favorable for snow until the very end. Also, the SLP track is west, its inside the BM and goes over the cape. On the GFS it appears roughly 0.4-0.5 falls as frozen precip in NYC. Would probably still add up to a slushy inch. It seems like the best bet at this point is to blend the temp profiles of the NAM and GFS (with maybe more credence to the NAM since it has some euro support, at least at 00z). I think no matter what happens, there is a very small chance any of the airports measure more than 2 inches with the greatest chance being at EWR and NYC. I think these small differences in resolving the temp profiles will have the GREATEST impact on the people who live in the burbs immediately outside NYC, because in the colder NAM solution it is entirely plausible you could end up with 6+ while NYC measures a sloppy 1-3in, while in the warmer scenario it might be more of a region wide (ie NYC and immediate burbs) 1-3in with a steep increase N and W of 287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12Z GFS is slightly to the east of its prior runs and slightly to the west of NAM, but GFS' temp profiles are still considerably warmer than the NAM. They almost agree on the track of the low, seem to be trending toward the NAM, except for temperature profile. We may learn something about the recently upgraded NAM from these differences. WX/PT We'll probably turn out a little colder than the GFS, but not as cold as the NAM, in that case. The NAM's higher res is allowing it to pick up on dynamic cooling. However, the NAM is also probably overdoing precip intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For a bombing low and dynamics coming into play, I don't see how the GFS can be this warm. Sorry. Its resolution might be smoothing it all out? Every other model isn't near the GFS thermally. That's exactly what I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I said 850 line was under NYC, and it is before it crashes, first time its been that far north. And the surface low track at 6z was east of the cape, now its over it. Over the Cape sucks for Boston but it's fine for NYC. We just need the SLP to move east of the southern tip of NJ so the low level winds stay out of the north. If that happens and the storm deepens rapidly, it could make a really close pass and still switch to snow almost to the coast. Thereafter, if the mid-levels really wrap up and the storm makes landfall over EMa, that's actually good for us. It would allow a comma head type snow to linger a bit longer over us. A closely tucked track is only bad if the storm approaches from EPa or NJ... or if you live south or east of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol, CTRain in the SNE thread says its cooler for NYC while TheTrials texts me saying the low is right under NYC. Somebody post a map the GFS is slightly east of previous runs...but it seems warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS track looks classic. Right-if anything we should be breathing a sigh of relief here. It definitely ticked a bit east from 6z, and maybe now we'll see models even out or head a little east as the final track. Given all other guidance mostly backing the NAM's temp profile, I would buy it over the GFS especially given its superior resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the GFS is slightly east of previous runs...but it seems warmer It's warmer because it's drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Of note this aftn, the temp at 1151am at central park is 44 degrees, dp of 26. 18z forecasted temp on the NAM (ie at 1pm this aftn) is 50 with a dp in the low 30's. Temps busting slightly low. Food for thought, may not mean much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Anybody NW (or even right on top) of the 700mb and 850mb lows is in the game. On the 12z GFS, that would be everybody except LI (western Nassau still has a chance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We'll probably turn out a little colder than the GFS, but not as cold as the NAM, in that case. The NAM's higher res is allowing it to pick up on dynamic cooling. However, the NAM is also probably overdoing precip intensity. That would make the updated NAM similar to the prior NAM in this respect. If it's not overdoing precip intensity, this event would be incredibly historic. Otherwise, it will, probably,.....just be historic. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That would make the updated NAM similar to the prior NAM in this respect. If it's not overdoing precip intensity, this event would be incredibly historic. Otherwise, it will, probably,.....just be historic. WX/PT I'm not going to discount the NAM overdoing precip until I see that it no longer does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is a forecasting nightmare for the meteorologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is a forecasting nightmare for the meteorologists. In more ways than one. Elevation is a challenge, but at least you know where the higher elevated places are and they do not change. The more difficult aspect is determining where the heavy bands of precip sets up. Someone at a lower elevation that gets heavier bands of precip training over them could very well get more snow than a higher elevated place that does not cash in on the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is a forecasting nightmare for the meteorologists. For us, absolutely. 3 hours or 6 hours of snow and where bands are could double or halve totals, or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Its all about where the heavy CCB sets up. The heavier it is, the more snow for the coast and NYC. If its weak, like the GFS, NYC only sees slushy accumulations. If its strong like the euro or NAM, NYC sees over 4" of snow. We wont have the heavy banding pinned down until we see it on radar tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I believe I recall someone saying earlier that if we can drop temps rapidly tonight, we won't be able to moderate much tomorrow. I think this is important, and if a majority of precip falls after 2pm this could also really help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z Ukie looks great http://weather.uwyo....EC=none&F1=p06i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Its all about where the heavy CCB sets up. The heavier it is, the more snow for the coast and NYC. If its weak, like the GFS, NYC only sees slushy accumulations. If its strong like the euro or NAM, NYC sees over 4" of snow. We wont have the heavy banding pinned down until we see it on radar tomorrow afternoon. And THAT is what makes this forecast so tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For us, absolutely. 3 hours or 6 hours of snow and where bands are could double or halve totals, or more. We need some good overperforming deformation banding lingering until around 6z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS clown map off Raleigh is very similar to NAM for NYC. 6"-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Its all about where the heavy CCB sets up. The heavier it is, the more snow for the coast and NYC. If its weak, like the GFS, NYC only sees slushy accumulations. If its strong like the euro or NAM, NYC sees over 4" of snow. We wont have the heavy banding pinned down until we see it on radar tomorrow afternoon. All i know is if the changeover is as abrupt as 12/25/02 on long island we can still pile up quickly. That intensity really made the snow stick fast and it accumulate fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 UKIE appears well east of the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some very severe over reactions in this thread initially. The posts by eduggs and jm are spot on. This is not going to be all snow. It's October. However, the track is absolutely classic. We have some warm boundary layer temps to fight off initially but you can't deny what's going on here. Although the GFS is warmer, it's still showing the rapidly deepening low pressure offshore and very impressive frontogenic forcing and the potential for instability in banding and very impressive dynamic cooling. The westward tilt with height and the tuck northwest as the low is kicked by the h5 pva is classic. It's going to be a rain/snow transition event, but once it flips..it's going to feel like mid-winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 UKMET looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Someone already mentioned it, but, for emphasis-- Central Park is at 44 degrees, at noon on October 28th under clear skies. 44 degrees!!!! The forecast high (NWS) for today was 53; while we will still likely climb a few degrees, we will likely stay sub-50 today, which is extremely impressive for the time of year (especially under clear skies). Look at models all you like, but the early indications today are certainly not bad for the BL temps into tonight and tomorrow. The progged low tonight per the NWS is 41, and I would think that is too high... wait and see, but if we drop into the 30s tonight, I will feel much more confident that the city proper sees at least 2-3" of snow (obviously not in Times Square, but the park, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some very severe over reactions in this thread initially. The posts by eduggs and jm are spot on. This is not going to be all snow. It's October. However, the track is absolutely classic. We have some warm boundary layer temps to fight off initially but you can't deny what's going on here. Although the GFS is warmer, it's still showing the rapidly deepening low pressure offshore and very impressive frontogenic forcing and the potential for instability in banding and very impressive dynamic cooling. The westward tilt with height and the tuck northwest as the low is kicked by the h5 pva is classic. It's going to be a rain/snow transition event, but once it flips..it's going to feel like mid-winter. I think the nrn hills of NJ ene into se NY just nw of NYC and western ct are in for something special. The mid level low track is classic. Just classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the nrn hills of NJ ene into se NY just nw of NYC and western ct are in for something special. The mid level low track is classic. Just classic. i knew it was worth getting off the coastal plain of NJ.....yea boyeeeee!!!! 42F here, i doubt it gets to the forecasted 48F today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the nrn hills of NJ ene into se NY just nw of NYC and western ct are in for something special. The mid level low track is classic. Just classic. Its looking better and better with each run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the nrn hills of NJ ene into se NY just nw of NYC and western ct are in for something special. The mid level low track is classic. Just classic. It's going to be close here. Im far enough west but I'm not sure about far enough north-west. I'll take whatever I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's going to be close here. Im far enough west but I'm not sure about far enough north-west. I'll take whatever I can get. Same here. My longitude could hurt me..lol. Similarities to Boxing Day up here with the coastal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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