WintersGrasp Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 System is slower on the gfs...really no change as to the location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sorry for the folks out in Long Island, I can't see them getting more than a slushy 1-2" except perhaps parts of the northern shore and areas that border Queens. Yeah, sucks to have to settle for that before Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS coming west again Looks about the same as the NAM or a hair east. It's 50 miles or so off the Delmarva at 27. Still with this weird thermal profile though that is likely too warm. Compared to 6z, if anything it's east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 about 50 miles west at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 told you. First time the 850 line has come to the NYC shores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'd cut it by more than half If you cut it by 90% its still an October record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z GFS is still west . Alot of rain for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z GFS is still west . Alot of rain for the area. It's about on where the NAM is if not a little east. It doesn't hug the coast either-it stays about 50 miles off then heads ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this entire thread says its west, the entire sne thread says its east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Gfs is now inline with what I'm thinking...up to 2" for city and NE nj metro ...elevation dependent and much more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Have to disagree with your location down in Pompton Plains - Not enough elevation down there in these storms. You know as much as anyone that Butler is the dividing line in these types of elevation storms. My place in WM is 10 miles from pompton plains yet over 800 feet higher in elevation. I've seen rain down by you and over a 18 inches in my backyard (i.e. April Fools Day storm). It's crazy. But you're location is much better than the city clearly. I have to admit, I am absolutly loving my location. There are plenty of negatives to consider. For one, the time of day, most of the precip looks to fall during the afternoon into early evening and there is still a fairly significant sun angle (very early March). Secondly, the ground is not frozen yet for 90% of the NY metro. I have not even had my first frost yet, its hard to believe that I will see my first accumulating snow before my first frost, unless of course I get the frost tonight into tommorrow, but either way, the point is noted. The positives, first its a fairly long duration event, the temperatures look to be marginal at the surface and good aloft, at least away from the immediate coast, and the dynamics look very impressive. I'm going with a slushy 1-3" for the city and the immediate coast and 2-5" for anyone else thats east and South of the 287/I-80 intersection. I hope I am wrong, and the amounts are much higher, but its too unlikely a scenario to predict more than that. Back where I live, there should be a corridor about 50 miles wide where the CCB will coincide with the best surface conditions. That should setup through western Rockland County, down through Orange and Sullivan counties, down through Sussex and Western Passaic counties and ending up somewhere about as far south as Trenton and through NW PA. Anybody in that region is cabable of seeing 6" +, especially the highest elevations. Sorry for the folks out in Long Island, I can't see them getting more than a slushy 1-2" except perhaps parts of the northern shore and areas that border Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some stellar model analysis, lol. Wish i ccould get models on my phone. Should wr split the difference amd ddecided that it iis tje ssame? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Have to disagree with your location down in Pompton Plains - Not enough elevation down there in these storms. You know as much as anyone that Butler is the dividing line in these types of elevation storms. My place in WM is 10 miles from pompton plains yet over 800 feet higher in elevation. I've seen rain down by you and over a 18 inches in my backyard (i.e. April Fools Day storm). It's crazy. But you're location is much better than the city clearly. GREAT location in west Milford as you usually get snow from the NW storms and the ones further off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 if the gfs & nam have the same track, but the gfs is warmer...I think everybody here knows what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this entire thread says its west, the entire sne thread says its east. the trough isnt as sharp, looks flatter...so it would make sense for sfc L to be a little tick E, regardless where it places it on the map. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A month later GFS has a blizzard..but it's October..you cant beat climo at the coast..to see any snow is remarkable..it's a nice warm up though for the main show which always starts in early December..not upset at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some stellar model analysis, lol. Wish i ccould get models on my phone. Should wr split the difference amd ddecided that it iis tje ssame? :-) I am not sure the position has changed much since 6Z, but the precip amounts have dropped quite a bit as it deepens off the coast and I would presume have help to keep temps up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah NAM and GFS take the same track, maybe the GFS is a little west, but the NAM is just colder overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this entire thread says its west, the entire sne thread says its east. That's because some people look at SLP location, others look at the 0 degree 850mb line, and others look at the 300mb or 500mb trof placement. The situation usually requires a more complex description than merely west or east. An eastward track can mean a westward or eastward shift in the thermal profiles, depending on lots of other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the 700 low actually is centered over western PA now before it contracts and moves east. That is pretty big shift. Forget the SLP, the mid levels are not favorable for snow until the very end. Also, the SLP track is west, its inside the BM and goes over the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol, CTRain in the SNE thread says its cooler for NYC while TheTrials texts me saying the low is right under NYC. Somebody post a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12Z GFS is slightly to the east of its prior runs and slightly to the west of NAM, but GFS' temp profiles are still considerably warmer than the NAM. They almost agree on the track of the low, seem to be trending toward the NAM, except for temperature profile. We may learn something about the recently upgraded NAM from these differences. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol, CTRain in the SNE thread says its cooler for NYC while TheTrials texts me saying the low is right under NYC. Somebody post a map The last two pages have been horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol, CTRain in the SNE thread says its cooler for NYC while TheTrials texts me saying the low is right under NYC. Somebody post a map It's east of the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I believe the Nam's hi-res throwing more precip out is causing the column to cool, whereas the gfs' less precip/dynamics have the BL staying mediocre. Not sure how this is gonna play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For a bombing low and dynamics coming into play, I don't see how the GFS can be this warm. Sorry. Its resolution might be smoothing it all out? Every other model isn't near the GFS thermally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS has NOT changed track, it is still showing a similar lp position to other models. The only difference is its thermal profile. I would estimate, with the dynamics in place and the evolution on the gfs that its outcome would be similar to the NAM/GFS. Start as rain and than a turn to thumping snow from W to E. Especially as the daylight goes away. Even the current solution of the gfs, if its temps are to be taken verbatim, has a thumping snow after a start as rain. I would have to imagine with the dynamics in place and the strong confluence to the north, that when this thing gets cranking it will turn over quickly to a thumping snow. Especially N and W of the city, who I still think stand a good chance at seeing several inches of snow, and 6+ in higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol, CTRain in the SNE thread says its cooler for NYC while TheTrials texts me saying the low is right under NYC. Somebody post a map I said 850 line was under NYC, and it is before it crashes, first time its been that far north. And the surface low track at 6z was east of the cape, now its over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS track looks classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 UL closes off right over NYC by 3z on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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