bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It should be snowing mostly at night, which is great. It's honestly impossible to predict what will happen by us-an hour or two of leeway could double or halve what we see. A closing off of the upper low could also help the snow to linger a bit longer once it gets going though the whole system should keep moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I have to admit, I am absolutly loving my location. There are plenty of negatives to consider. For one, the time of day, most of the precip looks to fall during the afternoon into early evening and there is still a fairly significant sun angle (very early March). Secondly, the ground is not frozen yet for 90% of the NY metro. I have not even had my first frost yet, its hard to believe that I will see my first accumulating snow before my first frost, unless of course I get the frost tonight into tommorrow, but either way, the point is noted. The positives, first its a fairly long duration event, the temperatures look to be marginal at the surface and good aloft, at least away from the immediate coast, and the dynamics look very impressive. I'm going with a slushy 1-3" for the city and the immediate coast and 2-5" for anyone else thats east and South of the 287/I-80 intersection. I hope I am wrong, and the amounts are much higher, but its too unlikely a scenario to predict more than that. Back where I live, there should be a corridor about 50 miles wide where the CCB will coincide with the best surface conditions. That should setup through western Rockland County, down through Orange and Sullivan counties, down through Sussex and Western Passaic counties and ending up somewhere about as far south as Trenton and through NW PA. Anybody in that region is cabable of seeing 6" +, especially the highest elevations. Sorry for the folks out in Long Island, I can't see them getting more than a slushy 1-2" except perhaps parts of the northern shore and areas that border Queens. Acautlly sun angle is very low. Same as early FEB and most of the precip falls at night not during the day according to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 after hr 30, looks pretty good for HPN http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_khpn.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this is the vertical motion map on the rgem at 36 hours. WOW. Huge deform. Model is updating other maps now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z Nam text soundings for NYC http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Knyc.txt 17.2 inches of snow :stun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Acautlly sun angle is very low. Same as early FEB and most of the precip falls at night not during the day according to the NAM I think your off by a month, its a very late February or very early March sun angle, Either way I wasn't indicating that it would be such a big factor that it was going to be playing the biggest roll, but its not ideal. Also, NWS has precip beginning around here after 8am and lasting through the day so if it held off until tommorrow night that would be a large error. This is from NWS for 07444 Saturday: Snow, mainly after 8am. High near 38. North wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Saturday Night: Snow, mainly before 2am. Low around 33. North wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 tucked in and warm for the coast on the rgem. Probably crashes after this, if any precip is left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this is the vertical motion map on the rgem at 36 hours. WOW. Huge deform. Model is updating other maps now I just cant...my eyes start bleeding looking at it. but ill take your word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Does anyone think this could be similar to the Dec 5, 2009 event. I remember that one changing over to snow and being quite heavy for a time but really had a tough time sticking. We got a slushy inch but I recall forecasts being for a bit more. N&W obviously did quite a bit better and of course that was 5 weeks later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think your off by a month, its a very late February or very early March sun angle, Either way I wasn't indicating that it would be such a big factor that it was going to be playing the biggest roll, but its not ideal. Also, NWS has precip beginning around here after 8am and lasting through the day so if it held off until tommorrow night that would be a large error. This is from NWS for 07444 Saturday: Snow, mainly after 8am. High near 38. North wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Saturday Night: Snow, mainly before 2am. Low around 33. North wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. I never look at those point and click forecasts. They are always behind. Look at the NAM. Precip starts in the early afternoon and last to around midnight. And I am right about the sun angle. it is the same right now as it is in early February. Sun angle isn’t really a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think your off by a month, its a very late February or very early March sun angle, I'm afraid you're incorrect. Its been over a month since the equinox. Over a month before the spring equinox means mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The NAM has tremendous forcing over the NYC area tomorrow. Those near and just wn of the city will flip so quickly, it's not even funny...IF that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think your off by a month, its a very late February or very early March sun angle, Either way I wasn't indicating that it would be such a big factor that it was going to be playing the biggest roll, but its not ideal. Also, NWS has precip beginning around here after 8am and lasting through the day so if it held off until tommorrow night that would be a large error. This is from NWS for 07444 Saturday: Snow, mainly after 8am. High near 38. North wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Saturday Night: Snow, mainly before 2am. Low around 33. North wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday's date is Oct 29th, which is about 7 wks before the winter solstice (ie lowest sun angle). 7 wks after Dec 21st is the 2nd wk February not late feb or early march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z Nam text soundings for NYC http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Knyc.txt 17.2 inches of snow :stun: FWIW, those algorithms are woeful. They often assume marginally warm columns are sufficiently cold for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 FWIW, those algorithms are woeful. They often assume marginally warm columns are sufficiently cold for snow. Even if you cut that number in half, it's still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow is the GFS amplified. Its close to going negative before the Mississippi River which is bad news for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS is slightly de amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even if you cut that number in half, it's still impressive. I'd cut it by more than half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow is the GFS amplified. Its close to going negative before the Mississippi River which is bad news for everyone. Compared to 6z...no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Can't see the euro holding onto its solution now. Clearly the full sampling over the CONUS is having an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even if you cut that number in half, it's still impressive. If you can get a whitened ground before Thanksgiving, it's impressive for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even if you cut that number in half, it's still impressive. Anthony,in this case even an inch of snow is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol only in this thread would a post immediately following "its amped!" Be "its de-amped". Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol only in this thread would a post immediately following "its amped!" Be "its de-amped". Lol. Haha I noticed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Alpha and trials looking at 2 different GFS'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think your off by a month, its a very late February or very early March sun angle, Either way I wasn't indicating that it would be such a big factor that it was going to be playing the biggest roll, but its not ideal. Also, NWS has precip beginning around here after 8am and lasting through the day so if it held off until tommorrow night that would be a large error. This is from NWS for 07444 Saturday: Snow, mainly after 8am. High near 38. North wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Saturday Night: Snow, mainly before 2am. Low around 33. North wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Odd forecast..Right across 23 in Wayne they are calling for 1-3 as compared to 3-7 in Pompton Plains/Pequannock. I know it's trival but rather just funny how they used 23 as the dividing line when parts of Wayne sit like 250' higher in evelation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At 24 hrs GFS looks close to Hatteras like NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS coming west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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