WintersGrasp Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Right now I'm thinking 1-2" for the city on the ground....and elevation WILL be a huge factor into NJ. Probably 2" for Newark near me...and 15" for an area like high point NJ, who saw I believe that same amount a couple years ago in October. Similar situation only that time we saw just a dusting here. Climatology of course favors no significant accumulation here. While it doesn't always go that way, it must be factored in. Also, storms this time of year generally shift northwest. The system and it's impacts on our area are still a day and a half away. If it shifts east, of course snowier....but we're really on the edge here. A bit more of a shift west would bring the line of barely any accumulating snow into our area, and make the more likely scenario a rain to wet snow that doesn't accumulate much except up to an inch on grass type of thing here. A further west track would change a LOT....as it could simply mean rain ending as mostly rain and dry slot as western NJ could even be on the EASTERN part of the heavier snows or any snows at all. I think the heaviest stuff snow wise will be from NW NJ and NE PA on into southern NY state and the higher elevations into CT and MA. If I had to guess I'd say up to 2" for NYC, up to 3" fOr Newark, up to 6" for places like morristown, and UP TO15" for high point NJ and west then NE elevation-dependent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Anybody here complaining about 1-1.25" QPF (probably overdone) of frozen precipitation in October? ...anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Anybody here complaining about 1-1.25" QPF (probably overdone) of frozen precipitation in October? ...anybody? Certainly not me! But I wish it would be 2 days later.. The trick-or-treaters are gonna annoy me now. I'm glad I'll finally be able to eat the bag of candy I bought for myself to go trick-or-treating inside my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 people following the models should be watching temperatures today into this evening just as intently... if we can get sub-40 tonight before the precipitation begins in the morning, I would think we would have a much better chance of seeing significant accumulations. I still like 4" for the park, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL.. yummy.. Is that the little mermaid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 KNYC: http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_knyc.txt AT hour 33, every level down to the 975 level is below freezing. 1000mb level is .3 degrees. AFTER hour 33, 1.04" of precip falls. That is snow for NYC, at hour 33 and beyond. Perhaps even sooner. Hours 31-32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Certainly not me! But I wish it would be 2 days later.. The trick-or-treaters are gonna annoy me now. I'm glad I'll finally be able to eat the bag of candy I bought for myself to go trick-or-treating inside my house. dont shovel ur sidewalk or plow your driveway.....make it look like no one is home.... of course we would know you're in your backyard tossing weenies drinking hot cocoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I wish there would be some realism here with what we are dealing with on Long Island. This could be a crushing wind storm with lots of heavy rain (some thunder maybe?). We could see gusts over 60 mph and then there could still be some wet snow as the storm is winding down. All in all this is impressive storm for us. We know our time will come this winter when its truly colder out there. For those west of the city I hope you enjoy this beast! Take pictures! I agree-the winds will be crazy on Saturday, and many downed trees especially with whatever snow falls. 60 mph winds can do damage whatever time of year. During the worst of Irene, my winds didn't get much above 65 mph maybe. I'm still optimistic on the backlash delivering some good snow to us (maybe primarily western Long Island) for a couple of hours or so during the evening hours. It could be a coating, 3", who knows, depending on where banding sets up and pivots. These dynamic cooling/coastal front events can surprise too. I remember 2/25/10 changing over to snow a lot sooner than many thought. I had 10"+ from that when most forecasts had Nassau County getting a few inches. With the right dynamics, I think the colder end of it could surprise many even near the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I remember also the hideously underforecasted 3/13/10 storm and the kind of wind damage that caused. I think we had a wind advisory going in and we had 80 mph wind gusts for hours (immediate coast and Westchester). I don't think we have that kind of intensity but the winds will surprise a lot of people also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 KNYC: http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_knyc.txt AT hour 33, every level down to the 975 level is below freezing. 1000mb level is .3 degrees. AFTER hour 33, 1.04" of precip falls. That is snow for NYC, at hour 33 and beyond. Perhaps even sooner. Hours 31-32. Winds are also sustained 20-25 knots. And the heaviest frozen precip comes hours 33 (5pm) through hour 39 (11pm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Impressive dynamics given its October month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Fun fact: Mount Holly is still forecasting for all rain in Middlesex County http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Brunswick&state=NJ&site=PHI&lat=40.4864&lon=-74.4451 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A sniplet of Albany's Discussion: GFS AND PVS ECMWF SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...MANY INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW. TREES REMAIN FULLY LEAFED IN SOUTHEAST AND STILL FOLIATED IN MANY AREAS EXCPT N MOUNTAINS. AKA OCT 1987 BUT MAJOR IMPACTS FARTHER S. THE GFS DUMB GUY SNOW OUTPUT IS 1-4 INCHES NORTH...10-15 IN HIGHER TRRN OF VT/MA/NY AND 6-8 ON VLY FLOORS. YES THESE ARE WINTER EQ AND THURSDAYS EVENT IT WAS ADVERTISING 4-8 INCHES AND MOST AREAS SAW 1-3. ITS NAM COUNTER PART IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH 1-2 IN CATSKILLS AND 8 IN LITCHFIELD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I remember also the hideously underforecasted 3/13/10 storm and the kind of wind damage that caused. I think we had a wind advisory going in and we had 80 mph wind gusts for hours (immediate coast and Westchester). I don't think we have that kind of intensity but the winds will surprise a lot of people also. It looks like between 21z-0z we should change over here as the winds shift to more northerly. Even if we only make down to 34-36, the snow should have no trouble sticking on the colder surfaces with the heavier rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Fun fact: Mount Holly is still forecasting for all rain in Middlesex County http://forecast.weat...64&lon=-74.4451 Regardless of their forecast, the RU vs WVU game is going to be brutal tomorrow. I can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlestonNYC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 tornadojay, it's funny...the 32 degree line in the later panel is exactly where you said you wanted NWS to split Rockland in 1/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Mt. Holly seems to be going with higher temps in general. For example they have a high of 43 in Morris County where there is a watch, yet Upton has Union county to the east at a lower high of just 40 Fun fact: Mount Holly is still forecasting for all rain in Middlesex County http://forecast.weat...64&lon=-74.4451 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It looks like between 21z-0z we should change over here as the winds shift to more northerly. Even if we only make down to 34-36, the snow should have no trouble sticking on the colder surfaces with the heavier rates. What a horrible job for the forecasters. If we change over at 5-6pm, we're still left with several hours at least of at least solidly heavy snow. Who knows what that will amount to, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Penn State/Illinois from State College at 330 tomorrow will be great to watch as well....should be snowing with snow already on the ground and windy Regardless of their forecast, the RU vs WVU game is going to be brutal tomorrow. I can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 tornadojay, it's funny...the 32 degree line here is exactly where you said you wanted NWS to split Rockland in 1/2 it never fails, but I have a good feeling about tomorrow that I will be on the good side of things. I think I'll have a few slushy inches, even by me, which is much more than you can ever ask for in October. Just seeing one flake of snow is more than I can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 White Plains I believe was nearly identical. Hard to fathom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Penn State/Illinois from State College at 330 tomorrow will be great to watch as well....should be snowing with snow already on the ground and windy They could potentially beat out their half a foot of snow or so from Oct 2009, which was so bad that tailgating (the collective temple us Penn Staters worship at every Saturday during a home game) had to be cancelled. It looks to really rip there especially in the morning and early afternoon. I was planning on going up for this weekend but had to back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What a horrible job for the forecasters. If we change over at 5-6pm, we're still left with several hours at least of at least solidly heavy snow. Who knows what that will amount to, lol If we can get down to around 34, you could even see the snow start sticking on the sidewalks and maybe some less traveled side streets with a heavy enough snowfall rate while the winds are really ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If we can get down to 34 or a little below, you could even see the snow start sticking on the sidewalks and maybe some less traveled side streets with a heavy enough snowfall rate while the winds are really ripping. It should be snowing mostly at night, which is great. It's honestly impossible to predict what will happen by us-an hour or two of leeway could double or halve what we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Penn State/Illinois from State College at 330 tomorrow will be great to watch as well....should be snowing with snow already on the ground and windy True, that should be an interesting game to watch. Atleast it will be all snow though, the problem with the RU/WVU game is that it will be a blend of rain, freezing rain, and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I have to admit, I am absolutly loving my location. There are plenty of negatives to consider. For one, the time of day, most of the precip looks to fall during the afternoon into early evening and there is still a fairly significant sun angle (very early March). Secondly, the ground is not frozen yet for 90% of the NY metro. I have not even had my first frost yet, its hard to believe that I will see my first accumulating snow before my first frost, unless of course I get the frost tonight into tommorrow, but either way, the point is noted. The positives, first its a fairly long duration event, the temperatures look to be marginal at the surface and good aloft, at least away from the immediate coast, and the dynamics look very impressive. I'm going with a slushy 1-3" for the city and the immediate coast and 2-5" for anyone else thats east and South of the 287/I-80 intersection. I hope I am wrong, and the amounts are much higher, but its too unlikely a scenario to predict more than that. Back where I live, there should be a corridor about 50 miles wide where the CCB will coincide with the best surface conditions. That should setup through western Rockland County, down through Orange and Sullivan counties, down through Sussex and Western Passaic counties and ending up somewhere about as far south as Trenton and through NW PA. Anybody in that region is cabable of seeing 6" +, especially the highest elevations. Sorry for the folks out in Long Island, I can't see them getting more than a slushy 1-2" except perhaps parts of the northern shore and areas that border Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yes it will be an absolutely miserable day to be at a football game. Like you said the all snow will be better, even though it will be wet and there will be alot of snowball fights. True, that should be an interesting game to watch. Atleast it will be all snow though, the problem with the RU/WVU game is that it will be a blend of rain, freezing rain, and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.