Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Those maps are terrible. As far as maps that give you an immediate idea of what's happening---this one seems to be most realistic. The snow depth algorithm accounts for sfc temp/etc. Can that map get any smaller? No detail can be discerned at that resolution, especially with such a tight gradient. Is there a high res version? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 All snow maps are terrible. All I was trying to show is that the same snow maps from Raleigh showed a big improvement for the city. Gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 if temps are in the 40's manhattan aint getting 8-10" Yeah--those maps don't take any melting into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 if temps are in the 40's manhattan aint getting 8-10" Dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am 19 miles north of the GW bridge.. Toss a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 if temps are in the 40's manhattan aint getting 8-10" Well the same model and model run that Noreaster said is 40's for the city is saying 8-10 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 925mb temps crashing is a good sign of what's going on west of the city here in terms of extremely impressive frontogenic forcing and csi banding. This run is playing on the fact that the storm's rapid intensification can actually work in our favor despite a warmer initial push with the tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Pretty wild to see this occur for areas right at peak fall color. The heaviest snow areas should see similar scenes. http://www.huffingto..._n_1034870.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The big question for me is the track. It shifted significantly west. It may not be done shifting. If it wobbles back east at 18Z, then maybe game not over yet... but at this point I'd expect more nudge west at 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am 19 miles north of the GW bridge.. And I'm a few more north. I don't know how we will make out at the lower elevations along the Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 KNYC text soundings show 38 at surface, before the heavy CCB comes overhead and then dropping fast into the low 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Dynamic cooling well then the temps wouldnt be in the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I wish there would be some realism here with what we are dealing with on Long Island. This could be a crushing wind storm with lots of heavy rain (some thunder maybe?). We could see gusts over 60 mph and then there could still be some wet snow as the storm is winding down. All in all this is impressive storm for us. We know our time will come this winter when its truly colder out there. For those west of the city I hope you enjoy this beast! Take pictures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Manhattan gets 8-10 inches of snow with temps in the 40's. Talk about historic... Put a . in front of the 8 and a . after the 1 result equals .8 - 1.00 - thats called realistic and still could be called historical since records started being taken well over 100 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 925mb temps crashing is a good sign of what's going on west of the city here in terms of extremely impressive frontogenic forcing and csi banding. This run is playing on the fact that the storm's rapid intensification can actually work in our favor despite a warmer initial push with the tick west. The last I saw, the best frontogenesis was occurring at around 650 hPa, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Gonna be up in Putnam county Saturday and Saturday night. Will be ripping there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 well then the temps wouldnt be in the 40's At hour 30, NYC temps are 38 Hour 36, they are 35 degrees. And after hour 36, another .55" falls and temps continue to fall. Noreaster is not a good source for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I84 corridor in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this sets up the heaviest banding right between your house in scotch plains and probably two houses west of me in passaic county, ie places where the most QPF fall but are still close enough to "smell the rain." Be interesting to see if this plays out like '92 where the city and NE NJ was a cold rain while sussex/warren got hammered, or if the snow bomb fully wraps early and we all cool off. Absolute insanity for October any way you slice it. The 925mb temps crashing is a good sign of what's going on west of the city here in terms of extremely impressive frontogenic forcing and csi banding. This run is playing on the fact that the storm's rapid intensification can actually work in our favor despite a warmer initial push with the tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At hour 30, ALL levels down to the 950mb level are below zero for NYC. And then over 1.65" of precip falls. 950mb Temp ©: -0.8 3.2 3.8 3.2 2.2 -0.7 -1.9 -2.6 -0.8 Hour 30 is the -.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Toss a weenie s all around.. I like our positioning with regard to the jetstreak over northern new englad.. in the favorable right entrance region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The last I saw, the best frontogenesis was occurring at around 650 hPa, no? I'm waiting for the csi banding/deformation maps to come out. They give you a great idea as to where everything is setting up and where the best dynamic cooling will be situated. The 06z run was obscene. I have never seen anything like these 800-600 frontogen maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I wish there would be some realism here with what we are dealing with on Long Island. This could be a crushing wind storm with lots of heavy rain (some thunder maybe?). We could see gusts over 60 mph and then there could still be some wet snow as the storm is winding down. All in all this is impressive storm for us. We know our time will come this winter when its truly colder out there. For those west of the city I hope you enjoy this beast! Take pictures! agreed. No more power outages please. The trees and power lines crippled north/central nassau for a week from irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Also look at the 800-600mb mean wind barbs just to the northwest of the surface low --incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm waiting for the csi banding/deformation maps to come out. They give you a great idea as to where everything is setting up and where the best dynamic cooling will be situated. The 06z run was obscene. I have never seen anything like these 800-600 frontogen maps. holy moly!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This setup looks pretty similiar to the christmas day setup of 2002. The area started off in the 40's with rain. When the dynamics came into play, everyone dropped in the low 30's with several hours of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I would be surprised if somebody in our area didn't report thunder or thundersnow underneath those dynamics, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm waiting for the csi banding/deformation maps to come out. They give you a great idea as to where everything is setting up and where the best dynamic cooling will be situated. The 06z run was obscene. I have never seen anything like these 800-600 frontogen maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I wish there would be some realism here with what we are dealing with on Long Island. This could be a crushing wind storm with lots of heavy rain (some thunder maybe?). We could see gusts over 60 mph and then there could still be some wet snow as the storm is winding down. All in all this is impressive storm for us. We know our time will come this winter when its truly colder out there. For those west of the city I hope you enjoy this beast! Take pictures! Yeah ,the winds should really ramp up as we head into the late afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If you are NW of 287 get ready... Im now starting to get a bit concerned about power outages for the area. Still good here. starts snowing between 27 and 30 hrs here. This is for hr 30 here. After that all levels are below freezing and another 1.50"+ of precip falling. Being at 800' should help I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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