ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Basically if youre 20 miles outside the city the NAM still crushes you City does well as well. Hour 36: Hour 39: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 700mb low looks to be in a pretty bad spot at 30 hours and 33 hours, but it's in a GREAT spot for NJ and anyone west of the city at 36 hours. Crushing deform bands at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It looks like this storm will start as rain and stay rain for a while but man oh man if that CCB slides through as depicted we all get nailed in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If that 700 low was better aligned with the surface reflection it would be snow from the get go. It takes a while for the 700 low to compact. When it does, wow, its historic for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 700mb low looks to be in a pretty bad spot at 30 hours and 33 hours, but it's in a GREAT spot for NJ and anyone west of the city at 36 hours. Crushing deform bands at this point. just said same thing. If NAM is wrong about that and its further east to start, game on right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ...yet. I don't think this pattern favors such a solution. Can't ask for a much nicer looking setup and strong confluence to the north should really help pool the cold down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Times like these I hate the city LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Judging from the snow depth maps coming out right now this run is significantly snowier for much of New Jersey..but the cutoff is much sharper towards New York City. The city still gets a few inches--nothing to complain about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It looks like the snow makes it to the coast between 21z-0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 from hr 33 on even morristown is at 32 with heavy snow If you are NW of 287 get ready... Im now starting to get a bit concerned about power outages for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Big improvement on the weenie snow maps from 6z to 12z: 12z has 8:-10" for NYC While 6z had 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 from hr 33 on even morristown is at 32 with heavy snow Yup, it gets all the way down into Western Union/Essex counties and obviously continues into elevated Bergen and includes anywhere west or north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Big improvement on the weenie snow maps from 6z to 12z: 12z has 8:-10" for NYC While 6z had 2-3" haha has me in the heart of 19 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's a good hit even into NE NJ for sure as the CCB develops. NYC still likely flips to snow at the end. At 36 hrs its maybe 35 F in the city on the NAM and heavy precip falling. yes esp for the pats with elevation in NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You are not joking.. hr36 is an absolute beauty for these parts.. For this run. If this run holds, get some extra gas for the generators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At 36, the NAM is not that bad for the burbs 540 line overhead, 850's are plenty cold with heavy QPF The city is torching though torching and still -15 as compared to normal...yup torching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM is 40s for the city slightly more realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Big improvement on the weenie snow maps from 6z to 12z: 12z has 8:-10" for NYC While 6z had 2-3" NW Nassau gets almost 6 inches while SE Nassau gets nothing. I find it hard to believe that it will not switch over down there as well and when it does, if it does as depicted, they will accumulate just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Something also to note, is that the storm has a much stronger westward tilt with height at our latitudes than it does further north. That is indicative of a rapidly maturing storm, and one that would give siiiick deform at our latitudes. Further north, it's still potent, but it becomes closer to being vertically stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wonder what the vv's at the snow growth look like this run... Gotta be insaneZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The city does well from the crushing CCB from hours 33-42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Big improvement on the weenie snow maps from 6z to 12z: 12z has 8:-10" for NYC While 6z had 2-3" Those maps are terrible. As far as maps that give you an immediate idea of what's happening---this one seems to be most realistic. The snow depth algorithm accounts for sfc temp/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 slightly more realistic? Manhattan gets 8-10 inches of snow with temps in the 40's. Talk about historic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It looks like the snow makes it to the coast between 21z-0z. We're lucky we have 30-40 miles of land to our north and east, lol. I'm thinking we can still salvage a few hours of fun at the end on the backlash. I just hope we don't spend much of the day in a hole between bands like the NAM seems to be thinking. I can totally buy the megaband developing in northern and eastern NJ, there's almost always a band there in these kind of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If that 700 low was better aligned with the surface reflection it would be snow from the get go. It takes a while for the 700 low to compact. When it does, wow, its historic for everyone. Well at this point, we know it's going to be further west than the surface low, since strengthening storms have a westward tilt with height. In the earlier stages, this thing is really maturing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z eta agrees for the most part. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAEAST_12z/f39.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Those maps are terrible. As far as maps that give you an immediate idea of what's happening---this one seems to be most realistic. The snow depth algorithm accounts for sfc temp/etc. All snow maps are terrible. All I was trying to show is that the same snow maps from Raleigh showed a big improvement for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Manhattan gets 8-10 inches of snow with temps in the 40's. Talk about historic... You can cut those amounts in half, twice if you're basing that prediction on those clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Manhattan gets 8-10 inches of snow with temps in the 40's. Talk about historic... if temps are in the 40's manhattan aint getting 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Basically if youre 20 miles outside the city the NAM still crushes you I am 19 miles north of the GW bridge.. Edit: BTW, Upton responded to my plea about splitting Rockland into two zones. They said they did this in other counties for the same reasons I specified. They will make sure the suggestion goes to the right people.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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