famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM got warmer for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 props to the GFS if this verfies, it showed the 700mb low over SE PA yesterday at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM too amplified even for Mount Earthlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 20 miles NW...lets see what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM is 40s for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 At 36, the NAM is not that bad for the burbs 540 line overhead, 850's are plenty cold with heavy QPF The city is torching though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Man... I wish I could take a trip back to Penn State this weekend. I had tickets to the Illinois game for this weekend but had to back out. Really looks like they can get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this is not where you want the 700 low for anyone in this viewing area except NW jersey up into the hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 hr 36 is downright ridiculous for Sussex/Orange counties.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this is not where you want the 700 low for anyone in this viewing area except NW jersey up into the hudson valley. Even in December/Jan that would likely be rain for the coast then dryslot. I guess the one plus is that the winds will be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow even just 20 miles N and W of the city is a monster hit. A bit warmer for the city, but I still think 1-3 not out of the question. I would question how far this low can actually come W given the strong confluence and progressiveness. Last year before many storms we had some slight shifts (a bit warmer) also right before actual events. I am not too concerned. Still think it plays out about the same, unless you were expecting several inches in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Delmarva hugger then slips east of Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hour 36 is insane...the NAM is still good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM destroys the catskills, historic crippling storm from Northern Orange County up into Sullivan County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The dynamics save the immediate suburbs of NYC this run. It's warmer...but not like the GFS. 925mb temps are below 0c from 15z Saturday and onward and drop to near -4 C at 00z Sunday. And 2m temps are still cold. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 huge hit for the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hour 36 is insane...the NAM is still good nice hit for NW NJ and the lower hundson valley, just rain in NYC maybe we can switch to snow before it ends but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yup, I'll toss a weenie for this one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Big improvements hour 36 under a crushing CCB: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 nice hit for NW NJ and the lower hundson valley, just rain in NYC maybe we can switch to snow before it ends but I doubt it. It's a good hit even into NE NJ for sure as the CCB develops. NYC still likely flips to snow at the end. At 36 hrs its maybe 35 F in the city on the NAM and heavy precip falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HPN flips to snow at 33 and absolutely rips probably through 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Delmarva hugger then slips SE of Cape May. Rain to wind whipped heavy snow for C/N NJ on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM destroys the catskills, historic crippling storm from Northern Orange County up into Sullivan County. You are not joking.. hr36 is an absolute beauty for these parts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Basically if youre 20 miles outside the city the NAM still crushes you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 hr 36 is downright ridiculous for Sussex/Orange counties.... from hr 33 on even morristown is at 32 with heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 More CCB destruction at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My lord the NAM destroys everyone after the initial deluge of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Delmarva hugger then slips east of Cape May. That's a track I might buy. I just don't see this hugging the coast all the way up here. The flow's too progressive. We're lucky to have this kicker behind it, that's for sure. Otherwise it would be a Hudson Valley runner if not worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The dynamics save the immediate suburbs of NYC this run. It's warmer...but not like the GFS. ...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ...yet. I think the truth lies somewhere in between, as it usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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