Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS is heavy on the QPF but its too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 At this point, rain/snow who cares. This system is going to be crazy. Will be fun to watch the evolution and dynamics of this one. Enjoyment for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GFS, closer to the coast, more amplified but a lot warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 At this point, rain/snow who cares. This system is going to be crazy. Will be fun to watch the evolution and dynamics of this one. Enjoyment for all. Because 36F and heavy rain sucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It looks like heights fall as the storm gets going and the changeover occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I can't imagine that'd verify that way... that is just insane. omegas peak at -65/-70 on the rutgers bufkit around that time....Gonna be in New Brunswick saturday?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 the trials needs to start doing his snow dance again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GFS, closer to the coast, more amplified but a lot warmer Thicknesses will crash in the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 And theres the dagger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Everything is fine as the low passes to the east, but its really warm initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 omegas peak at -65/-70 on the rutgers bufkit around that time....Gonna be in New Brunswick saturday?? lol You know it! Won't be at the game, though. Should be fun, especially if it can manage to snow that heavily during the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yeah this run still has the same idea with a flip to +sn but it's more rain to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 And theres the dagger There is a banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I don't think it would really be possible for any lower elevation areas to have snow before 18z Saturday, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yea an important thing to realize is that the timing of the nam/gfs is a little off with the evolution so that the 48 hr/54 hr timestamps respectively are pretty different (warmer) on the gfs, when in reality the same egneral idea/evolution occurs on both models (the gfs being far more realistic probably in not shpwing 15" of snow up the i95 corridor) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 And theres the dagger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 [begin typical weenie phrase] Relax folks. It's the 18z GFS. [end typical weenie phrase] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'd have to go through the hourly stamps to really know for sure, but I take it that the 18z gfs may bring in the heavy precip a little earlier than the nam does, such that more of it may fall as rain before heights crash and the flip to +SN takes place. it is still an unbelievable event on the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yea an important thing to realize is that the timing of the nam/gfs is a little off with the evolution so that the 48 hr/54 hr timestamps respectively are pretty different (warmer) on the gfs, when in reality the same egneral idea/evolution occurs on both models (the gfs being far more realistic probably in not shpwing 15" of snow up the i95 corridor) Exactly. Thanks for this post, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 54 hour panel is nuts. Still probably a few good hours of +sn for most on this run. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 regardless of how much if any snow we see, this is an impressive looking early season nor'easter. Winds are gonna be howling out there saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 still an extremely impressive storm on the gfs, 500mb is really really amplified. and now, the infamous lull between the 18z gfs and the 21z srefs..dinna time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Somebody post the clown maps from instantweathermaps that one guy was barking about earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 May need flood watches for coastal areas eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 regardless of how much if any snow we see, this is an impressive looking early season nor'easter. Winds are gonna be howling out there saturday! Yeah,the gradient really tightens up to the north and west of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS was continuously too warm last year in change over situations like 1/27 where we started out warm. That being said, NAM is too cold. Blend them, you still have a heck of an october snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ladies and gentlemen, we can;t expect the models to stay exactly the same through Saturday. Just know that there will most likely be a pretty impressive storm, it will bring a good amount of rain, and most of us will probably see snow at some point that may or may not accumulate. If you go by these expectations, you won't be disappointed. I originally had just hopes for snow in the air. After the last few runs I now hope for a coating. Anything more than that in October is gravy, seriously. It's gravy in November for crying out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In certain ways, this sounds like it's similar to the 12/26/02 storm, where it rained in NYC/Long Island - temps were in the 40's to near 50 - the storm passed to our south and east- heights crashed and that huge deform band came through the NYC/LI area and I ended up w/ 6-8" of wet snow.. I'm not saying this storm is the SAME as that storm- but the reality of what may happen seems similar.. Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS was continuously too warm last year in change over situations like 1/27 where we started out warm. That being said, NAM is too cold. Blend them, you still have a heck of an october snow storm. Anyone from a line of lets say Warren county to Orange county to Litchfield county is in for a once in a lifetime event this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In certain ways, this sounds like it's similar to the 12/26/02 storm, where it rained in NYC/Long Island - temps were in the 40's to near 50 - the storm passed to our south and east- heights crashed and that huge deform band came through the NYC/LI area and I ended up w/ 6-8" of wet snow.. I'm not saying this storm is the SAME as that storm- but the reality of what may happen seems similar.. Jeff Wasnt that Christmas, not the day after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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