jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah seriously. Some of those members look like they would actually be touching the Jersey coast. That's just crazy. With that kicker behind it and progressive flow, it would be really hard for that to happen. NCEP even mentioned preference for the NAM given the GFS developing the trough too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Somebody post the 2m temps (on a cell phone right now) Here it is at hour 36, while the heaviest precip is overhead. The 5 degree (41F) line is slicing Nassau/Queens, it appears: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Look at the Euro ensemble mean...actually pretty similar to the SREF image you posted. The difference is the GFS is warmer & goes NE from there. Euro & NAM go E-NE and cooler. Similar in terms of the mean, not the left leaning members. The euro takes a classic track from off of atlantic city out to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Tuck baby tuck! Sorry guys but not everyone in the NYC area lives on the coast BTW.. The 6z NAM doubled its qpf from the 0z NAM in this area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 the low res models may have a harder time picking up on the dynamic and evaporative cooling that the Euro and NAM may be getting at. Its no coincidence that the models with the best resolution are the coldest.....since we dont have a lot of cold air to work with, the temps we need will have to be produced dynamically so even though the storm track is not that different, the temp differences between the models is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The spread actually tightened a little bit to the south and east this run. Freakout cancel. 09z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/sref/20111028/09/sref_namer_039_mslp.gif 03z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/sref/20111028/03/sref_namer_045_mslp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The RSM is actually on land in coastal Jersey and super amped up. Obviously, thats a horrible solution for almost everyone here. I assume, all the RSM members of the sref are going to be similar and that's why the sref mean is leaning west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The spread actually tightened a little bit to the south and east this run. Freakout cancel. 09z http://mag.ncep.noaa...er_039_mslp.gif 03z http://mag.ncep.noaa...er_045_mslp.gif Very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am not sure where to post this, it really has no subforum, but any of you guys care to take a stab at what I might expect up at the house in Big Bass Lake, PA. It's Gouldsboro, just SE of Scranton, elevation 2k ft on top of Poconos. Worth a trip? There is an upstate NY/PA sub forum that might give you better coverage of that area, but I would say you might not see the heaviest precip there, but you will definitely have a shot given how cold you will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The RSM is actually on land in coastal Jersey and super amped up. Obviously, thats a horrible solution for almost everyone here. I assume, all the RSM members of the sref are going to be similar and that's why the sref mean is leaning west. That's a good reason to take the SREF mean with a grain of salt at the moment. Let's see what the 12z NAM does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 sref mean. Check out the zoomed in mean, at hour 36. 540 line well west into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 at least we get nice wind on the SREF mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREF looks like the RSM, no surprises there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM already more amplified through 18 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That's a pretty big adjustment for a 21 hr forecast. The heights on the EC aren't overly responsive but the H5 trough is deeper. Like I said earlier I think a tick west (at least) is inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREF probs are higher than the 03z run for 8" and 12" over New Jersey and haven't moved much elsewhere. Some of the members must be going psycho with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREF probs are higher than the 03z run for 8" and 12" over New Jersey and haven't moved much elsewhere. Some of the members must be going psycho with the CCB. So after all of that, a 55% of 12"+ in many areas just NW of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Mount Holly says the rain/snow line only gets as far south as Southern Morris County/parts of northern Somerset County and their forecasts for Northern Middlesex County NJ has no mention of any snow even mixing - this would mean that they think NYC metro sees no snow even though they don't forecast for that region - interesting to say the least........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREF probs are higher than the 03z run for 8" and 12" over New Jersey and haven't moved much elsewhere. Some of the members must be going psycho with the CCB. not bad. i like the probability of snow all the way out to central suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Stormvista just restarted the NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Based on the 24 hr NAM charts, this run is coming west by 25 miles at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Based on the 24 hr NAM charts, this run is coming west by 25 miles at the very least. is stormvista working for you? its stuck on 9 hours for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 is stormvista working for you? its stuck on 9 hours for me Nope. I'm forced to use the awful NCEP site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Based on the 24 hr NAM charts, this run is coming west by 25 miles at the very least. at least. H5 already pulling the surface low back to the coast. Check out SIM Radar. Deform band is going to be across hudson valley into Albany. Climo, wow. Forget your west east gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The NAM is tracking very close to SREF mean at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 hr30 is a dream for the NW crew.. LP sitting right off the Ocean City coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm That site is much better than the awful NCEP site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 central PA guys can't cry anymore. Monster hit for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Guys, I just have this feeling we (in the city) are in for a surprise (i.e. actual accumulating snow). Winter Storm Watch back home in the Shenandoah Valley of VA, which in my memory I can NEVER remember happening (and this is for 5+ in of snow above 1500 ft, and my house is at about 1600 ft). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow. I-81 and maybe even I-99 could be annihilated this run. Coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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