ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Does the 36F contour ever sweep through the rest of the island? I am curious as to how the Euro shows the thermal profile as the storm is on its way out. The euro surface, you can see on wunderground. This is for the euro ensemble, we are discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We are talking about 48 hr above which is pretty late to begin with, that's probably as cold as it gets during meaningful precip. Speaking of 48 hours, did you see the 6z GFS ensembles at that hour? There's a qpf bomb over the tristate area and temps look ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlestonNYC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Pretty sad. New Jersey is beautiful in many locations. It's incredible that you can drive from the rolling watchung hills or Ramapo mountains which are more similar to New England than anything....and be in the heart of New York City in 30 minutes. Are there any residential areas on the top of the Watchungs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Pretty sad. New Jersey is beautiful in many locations. It's incredible that you can drive from the rolling watchung hills or Ramapo mountains which are more similar to New England than anything....and be in the heart of New York City in 30 minutes. I was just going to say something similar. Drive I-80 heading from the city westward. It's amazing how fast (~30 minutes) you go from the biggest city in the country and its suburbs to the middle of nowhere. Try doing that in any other direction, along I-95 for example, and see where you are. Not to mention NW NJ is a great spot for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Speaking of 48 hours, did you see the 6z GFS ensembles at that hour? There's a qpf bomb over the tristate area and temps look ok. REMEMBER, the qpf is what has fallen, while the temps are real time, very deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlestonNYC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Are there any residential areas on the top of the Watchungs? NM, the answer is clearly yes. Just took a look at Google Maps. I wonder how the average in snow differs from up there vs. the valley below. Sorry to digress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Speaking of 48 hours, did you see the 6z GFS ensembles at that hour? There's a qpf bomb over the tristate area and temps look ok. the 6z gefs are pretty warm. There are several members that would equate to almost zero snow. Even for Jersey and down to Philly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 REMEMBER, the qpf is what has fallen, while the temps are real time, very deceiving. Yea I know, but the 850mb 0C line that was a problem at certain hours is well south and east at that hour which would mean that a good amount of that precip fell when temps were cold enough to fall as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Are there any residential areas on the top of the Watchungs? Well none of it is completely rural, but it's all non-urban. Look up the towns of Watchung Hills, Berkeley Heights, New Providence, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yea I know, but the 850mb 0C line that was a problem at certain hours is well south and east at that hour which would mean that a good amount of that precip fell when temps were cold enough to fall as snow. You're looking at the QPF over the previous 6 hours, and the 850 0c line for that exact moment at whatever hour. So it's essentially deceiving. Can be a huge forecasting misconception in changeover events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You're looking at the QPF over the previous 6 hours, and the 850 0c line for that exact moment at whatever hour. So it's essentially deceiving. Can be a huge forecasting misconception in changeover events. do you feel the need to always repeat what I say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm not sure I believe these ridiculously tucked in tracks up to the NJ shore and such. I guess it's possible but GFS is clearly the outlier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 do you feel the need to always repeat what I say? thankfully not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yea I know, but the 850mb 0C line that was a problem at certain hours is well south and east at that hour which would mean that a good amount of that precip fell when temps were cold enough to fall as snow. I posted hour 42, when the precip is actually falling. The majority are way too warm and would be rain for almost all of Jersey, outside the highest terrains of NWNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 thankfully not well played. Srefs running. Fingers crossed. Banter over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yea I know, but the 850mb 0C line that was a problem at certain hours is well south and east at that hour which would mean that a good amount of that precip fell when temps were cold enough to fall as snow. You need to look at the panel before to see how fast the 0C isotherm is moving southeastward to determine how much of that six hourly precip would fall AOB 0C 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You're looking at the QPF over the previous 6 hours, and the 850 0c line for that exact moment at whatever hour. So it's essentially deceiving. Can be a huge forecasting misconception in changeover events. Yea I get it, but I figured with the qpf hanging so far back at that frame that at some point some of it fell as snow. Maybe I'm wrong. Here's the image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 srefs still tucking this way too close to coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Pretty sad. New Jersey is beautiful in many locations. It's incredible that you can drive from the rolling watchung hills or Ramapo mountains which are more similar to New England than anything....and be in the heart of New York City in 30 minutes. I find that most people in general (not on this forum) are completely out of touch when it comes to things like this.. Every state has it's pluses and minuses.. All states have some amazing qualities.. It's sad but some people really think jersey smells b/c of its location.. I don't even live there but have seen it's good parts and bad parts.. There are some great places in nj.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 srefs are terrible via thetrials angered text message I just received Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREFS are out on NCEP Mean is ok, but a lot of left leaning members. 850 temps ok but surface appears warm still. Maps coming out on ewall soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 srefs still tucking this way too close to coast: The Euro is also tucked in towards the coast. The dynamics on the Euro is impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREFs have been west for a while now, but the NAM hasn't followed suit Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Somebody post the 2m temps (on a cell phone right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The Euro is also tucked in towards the coast. The dynamics on the Euro is impressive though. Euro goes over the Benchmark Anthony, nowhere near as tucked in as some of those sref members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREFs have been west for a while now, but the NAM hasn't followed suit Odd At this point I would be shocked if it didn't at least tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The probability maps are the maps we need to see on ewall. The mean is ok on the srefs, but like Trials said, too many members leaning west. Need to wait to see the probability maps on ewall, in a few mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro goes over the Benchmark Anthony, nowhere near as tucked in as some of those sref members. Yeah seriously. Some of those members look like they would actually be touching the Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro goes over the Benchmark Anthony, nowhere near as tucked in as some of those sref members. Look at the Euro ensemble mean...actually pretty similar to the SREF image you posted. The difference is the GFS is warmer & goes NE from there. Euro & NAM go E-NE and cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At this point I would be shocked if it didn't at least tick west. Why? HPC says NAM is handling this correctly in terms of the kicker out west and the euro is locked in. Just because the NAM and srefs are both meso models doesnt mean they have to follow one another. Also, 12z nam has 12z data, 9z srefs do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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