Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 euro ensembles definitely lean towards the nam. nowhere near as warm as the gfs especially west of the city. which makes me think the entire GFS/GEFS is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro ensembles have the low tucked in decently close but similar to the NAM in many respects with its northeast extension. Pretty perfect if youre just outside the city. Surface temps are 32-36 anywhere west of the city from 42-48 hrs. Ripping snow at that time. 850 0c doesn't get close to Long Island -- it's way off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 which makes me think the entire GFS/GEFS is out to lunch. I think the lower resolution in general is killing it. The higher res models that can pick up on dynamic cooling are better to go with. The storm will also likely be tighter, so cold air will be pulled into it more efficiently than the GFS shows. I also don't see it hugging the coast all the way up here-it will probably go NNE to a point and then be forced ENE as the progressive upper air features catch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro ensembles have the low tucked in decently close but similar to the NAM in many respects with its northeast extension. Pretty perfect if youre just outside the city. Surface temps are 32-36 anywhere west of the city from 42-48 hrs. Ripping snow at that time. 850 0c doesn't get close to Long Island -- it's way off the coast. Surface temps western long island? Am i going to be swimming on saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Upton is usually conservative anyways-we'll see what happens. Overall I like a track similar to the GFS, that hugs or is just off the coast up to near Ocean City/Cape May and then heads ENE as the upper features fully catch up and then haul it out. Thermally, I think the NAM/Euro is far better to go with. Remember, the Euro is usually biased a little too WARM. If they're right, it could be snowing in NYC and even western LI before dark. I think about the first half of what falls there is rain, and maybe some additional as wasted snow. There could be a few inches or so of accumulation anyway there if the bands pivot through long enough. Further NW, it's probably a lock for 6-12" especially in high elevations. Agree with this, except I think the upper air features do not turn it more ENE but NE. Subtle difference but could have implications for coastal sections with respect to potential snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Surface temps western long island? Am i going to be swimming on saturday? ~36-37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ~36-37. cant believe youll be seeing 3 inches of snow tommorow...wtf is that about. Drove to morristown last weekend to see a wedding band actually, NJ is nicer than i thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 from hpc's model diagnostic discussion regarding the kicker system: PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 00Z GEFS MEAN IS THE STRONGEST/SHARPEST WITH THIS SYSTEM ALOFT...WHILE THE 00Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH ITS PROGRESSION. AS THE FLOW UPSTREAM IS FLATTENING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 cant believe youll be seeing 3 inches of snow tommorow...wtf is that about. Drove to morristown last weekend to see a wedding band actually, NJ is nicer than i thought LOL you've never been to New Jersey before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 When you think about, the models are really not that far off, what were seeing is how big of a difference a 100 mile shift can make this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlestonNYC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 cant believe youll be seeing 3 inches of snow tommorow...wtf is that about. Drove to morristown last weekend to see a wedding band actually, NJ is nicer than i thought edit: NORTHERN NJ can be nice i guess moving down to Charleston may not matter too much for this storm, as my old spot in Hewlett might be getting the same weather we will be here, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ~36-37. North shore of Nassau and Queens, are actually south of the 34 degree line. So 33-35, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 from hpc's model diagnostic discussion regarding the kicker system: PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 00Z GEFS MEAN IS THE STRONGEST/SHARPEST WITH THIS SYSTEM ALOFT...WHILE THE 00Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH ITS PROGRESSION. AS THE FLOW UPSTREAM IS FLATTENING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION HERE. great find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 from hpc's model diagnostic discussion regarding the kicker system: PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 00Z GEFS MEAN IS THE STRONGEST/SHARPEST WITH THIS SYSTEM ALOFT...WHILE THE 00Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH ITS PROGRESSION. AS THE FLOW UPSTREAM IS FLATTENING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION HERE. Very telling from the HPC. The NAM is backed up by the entire Euro team, and we are still in a nina, so you always have to lean towards the more progressive solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This storm is beginning to sound more and more like what was it 2/28/10 where it rained on LI, snowed and rained in queens and NYC and snowed in NJ.. The temps were 35-36 the whole time.. The rain and what not did change over to snow though by nightfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 North shore of Nassau and Queens, are actually south of the 34 degree line. So 33-35, it appears. That's the 36 degree line, they are in 4 F increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You guys are too much, man. I know it's a different situation but it's hilarious to remember how we suggested the entire HPC staff be admitted into an insane asylum after they said initialization errors on 12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL you've never been to New Jersey before? i have been to AC and camden, and skiing at the gorge, maybe livingston when i was little, but usually driving through it to get somewhere cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That's the 36 degree line, they are in 4 F increments. OK. Thanks. So north shore of Queens and Nassau are still probably 34-36 and dropping. South shore is 36-38 as well as all of Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even the warm GFS gives LGA a ton of snow this time of year. Cut it in half and its still historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL you've never been to New Jersey before? Ha. The majority of poeple that live outside of NJ believe the entire state looks like the opening scene of the Sopranos. I kid you not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This storm is beginning to sound more and more like what was it 2/28/10 where it rained on LI, snowed and rained in queens and NYC and snowed in NJ.. The temps were 35-36 the whole time.. The rain and what not did change over to snow though by nightfall.. I remember leaving a soaking rain in Long Beach to enter a blinding snowstorm in Manhattan that day. The snow/rain line was around Jamaica/Forest Hills or so. On the way back at around 4pm, I about chased the R/S line back home to Long Beach. When I got in, there was about an inch of slush on the grass, and we ended up with 10" or so by the next morning (Central Park 25 miles away had almost two feet). HOWLING winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 OK. Thanks. So north shore of Queens and Nassau are still probably 34-36 and dropping. South shore is 36-38 as well as all of Suffolk. what do you call the north shore...LIE north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Reminds me of the past when the NAM was too cold and the GFS too warm going into an event where the truth was in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ha. The majority of poeple that live outside of NJ believe the entire state looks like the opening scene of the Sopranos. I kid you not. Pretty sad. New Jersey is beautiful in many locations. It's incredible that you can drive from the rolling watchung hills or Ramapo mountains which are more similar to New England than anything....and be in the heart of New York City in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That's the 36 degree line, they are in 4 F increments. Does the 36F contour ever sweep through the rest of the island? I am curious as to how the Euro shows the thermal profile as the storm is on its way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even the warm GFS gives LGA a ton of snow this time of year. Cut it in half and its still historic. I think most of us are locked into a couple or few hour period of fun as the storm pulls away. The main question is if any of the front part of the storm is snow for most of the coastal crew, or if it all comes from the backlash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 what do you call the north shore...LIE north? The map I saw, has the 36 degree line about 5-10 miles south of all of Queens and Western Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 what do you call the north shore...LIE north? Usually the LIE is a good divide. Upton has a similar position for its county breakdowns throughout Long Island. and Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Does the 36F contour ever sweep through the rest of the island? I am curious as to how the Euro shows the thermal profile as the storm is on its way out. We are talking about 48 hr above which is pretty late to begin with, that's probably as cold as it gets during meaningful precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.