earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 looking at the 0z NAM, thats a weenies dream but way too cold for NYC, outlier as Upton states. the euro is similar, albeit a bit warmer at the surface. still abbsolutely nothing like the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the euro is similar, albeit a bit warmer at the surface. still abbsolutely nothing like the gfs. And euro has a tendancy to be too warm at the surface, seeing the thickness levels cool off between 12z and 00Z is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the euro is similar, albeit a bit warmer at the surface. still abbsolutely nothing like the gfs. The GFS MOS numbers show a common problem it has with these sort of events. It shows the DPs at LGA increasing from 32 at 12Z to 38 at 21Z....that just won't happen, at the same time the NAMs DPs of 28-30 degrees are probably too low, but the GFS often seems to have trouble resolving the low-level evaporational cooling with precipitation events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Keep in the back of your head what baroclinic said last night too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I hate to use a classic weenie phrase but today's 12z runs are HUUUUUUGE. We'll see what model flinches first. With our luck they'll ass hold serve and will leave us in the dark until 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like Google is reading. I wonder what his thoughts are on this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just an FYI, looks like Member is in the lead for my snowfall contest with a guess date of 10/28. Pretty impressive. Remember, there is an over penalty. And the big lump of coal would go to Forky and WillORH if things continue as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just an FYI, looks like Member is in the lead for my snowfall contest with a guess date of 10/28. Pretty impressive. Remember, there is an over penalty. And the big lump of coal would go to Forky and WillORH if things continue as modeled. After what happened in St Louis, I am not counting my chickens yet....Down to the wire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Upton still not impressed for whatever reason....calls for mainly rain except at the end with an inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Upton still not impressed for whatever reason....calls for mainly rain except at the end with an inch or so They'll change that after the first inch accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 After what happened in St Louis, I am not counting my chickens yet....Down to the wire I'm pulling for you, most of the other weenies had no spine and picked safe dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Upton still not impressed for whatever reason....calls for mainly rain except at the end with an inch or so Bridgeport had a nasty warm layer right at the surface for some reason on the NAM, it was the only station. Must be all those fires noreaster09 lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Upton still not impressed for whatever reason....calls for mainly rain except at the end with an inch or so This is basically unchartered territory as their AFD last night said, the best they can do at that point is assume climatological past and keep in the back of their minds the idea that if heavy precip sets up over the area there is a chance snow can fall near the coast. I do think there may be some severe underestimating of whats going to happen inland though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 BillG is reading, perhaps he would like to chime in and give us a gutsy call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I wrote on Upton's Facebook wall that they should strongly consider breaking Rockland County into two zones. This is a classic situation, among many others, where it would be very useful. Southern Rockland and northern Rockland are generally like night and day in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I wrote on Upton's Facebook wall that they should strongly consider breaking Rockland County into two zones. This is a classic situation, among many others, where it would be very useful. Southern Rockland and northern Rockland are generally like night and day in these situations. The process for splitting counties is a pain I believe, there has to be a series of things done involving the NWS headquarters and what not, I know of some county splits in other WFOs which took several years to get through. I believe the Suffolk split by Upton was one that took some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I wrote on Upton's Facebook wall that they should strongly consider breaking Rockland County into two zones. This is a classic situation, among many others, where it would be very useful. Southern Rockland and northern Rockland are generally like night and day in these situations. Yeah i agree, its weird to even consider it, considering how small it is, but say a line from southern stony point to suffern (and the areas in between) will do so much better in situations like this than areas like piermont and tappan (and the snowhole that is nanuet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Bridgeport had a nasty warm layer right at the surface for some reason on the NAM, it was the only station. Must be all those fires noreaster09 lights. Nam rips a hole into Bdrs azz according to Bukfit, good luck down there in Darien, interesting to see the differences down that way when I visit family on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The process for splitting counties is a pain I believe, there has to be a series of things done involving the NWS headquarters and what not, I know of some county splits in other WFOs which took several years to get through. I believe the Suffolk split by Upton was one that took some time. yep, I realize that it's not a walk in the park to accomplish that. I merely wanted to at least have them think about it. The thing with Rockland is it's such a small county, however, for a county this small, the difference in weather is enormous.. both in temp and in precip type... and it happens a lot. I was very happy they split Bergen County. That one was needed even more. That is a larger county and there is a huge difference between Mahwah and Cliffside Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nam rips a hole into Bdrs azz according to Bukfit, good luck down there in Darien, interesting to see the differences down that way when I visit family on Sunday. the whole shoreline is quite fascinating. What a difference a few miles makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 just got a good look at the nam...I'll be running outside tossing hotdogs in the air if that verifies. totally rips here once the CCB gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 6z NAM text output gives LGA 14 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 12z runs today will have the benefit of all the pieces of upper energy getting sampled over the plains. This is when your confidence goes up enough to start really refining where the exact track of the low and R/S line will set up. That being said, the Euro has been in the lead while other models have been playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Upton is usually conservative anyways-we'll see what happens. Overall I like a track similar to the GFS, that hugs or is just off the coast up to near Ocean City/Cape May and then heads ENE as the upper features fully catch up and then haul it out. Thermally, I think the NAM/Euro is far better to go with. Remember, the Euro is usually biased a little too WARM. If they're right, it could be snowing in NYC and even western LI before dark. I think about the first half of what falls there is rain, and maybe some additional as wasted snow. There could be a few inches or so of accumulation anyway there if the bands pivot through long enough. Further NW, it's probably a lock for 6-12" especially in high elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So I guess this is gonna be one of those wait and see what happens events, right? The trick is to aim low and you won't be disappointed. I said several days ago that a few flakes is all I ask for this early in the season and that's all I'm betting on. Weather.com gives me a high of 44 tomorrow and a low of 30 tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So I guess this is gonna be one of those wait and see what happens events, right? The trick is to aim low and you won't be disappointed. I said several days ago that a few flakes is all I ask for this early in the season and that's all I'm betting on. Weather.com gives me a high of 44 tomorrow and a low of 30 tomorrow night. If the ground outside my house whitens a good bit, I'll call that a huge success. It probably hasn't happened in Long Beach in October in over a century. I think there's a shot at a few inches if it all goes well. If the bands set up over E NJ as they usually do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 gfs ensembles will have everyone on the cliff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 not that it matters but the NAM text output is actually running a tad warm...this morning vs 0z forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Craig Allen's forecast: city and coast, slush coating to an inch NW burbs, 3-6 Higher terrain NW 6-10 and hes mr. conservative. He says rain to snow city and coast in afternoon. In craig i trust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 euro ensembles definitely lean towards the nam. nowhere near as warm as the gfs especially west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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