Hailstorm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, Chris Cimino on NBC and Mike Woods on FOX just said that there will be no accumulating snowfall for NYC, not even for the immediate suburbs. I think they got their reasoning behind this map: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't know how reliable these instantweathermaps.com maps are, but they are indicating via the 06Z GFS 60 mph wind gusts over Long Island at 03Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't know how reliable these instantweathermaps.com maps are, but they are indicating via the 06Z GFS 60 mph wind gusts over Long Island at 03Z Sunday. Yea a lot of people might be downplaying or simply not paying attention to the wind threat. I think coastal areas could see strong winds but a lot will have to do with whether the lp undergoes bombogenesis and rapidly strengthens. We know there is great confluence to the north (one of the reasons why I am not worried about the warmth inland) and the gradient that will result could create strong winds and coastal erosion. I just hope the winds don't get to the interior areas, because that would be a bad mix with a heavy wet snowfall. It would result in numerous problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GEFS are warm and west---dramatically so, too. Hopefully they are out to lunch. They probably are- I just looked at the 6z GFS on E Wall, and it appears to be a tick east of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 6z models are pretty impressive...look at those precip amounts. Some high terrain NW of the burbs could very potentially get a foot out of this. Could cause major problems with downed trees and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nice disco by upton overnight, no snow at the coast but it quickly picks up as you move nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nice disco by upton overnight, no snow at the coast but it quickly picks up as you move nw You still thinking a few mangle flakes north and west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A couple of interesting developments on the 06Z RGEM: A norlun trough at hour 36 should aid in the development of heavy snows in C PA. On Monday I was looking to see if Penn State was playing on Saturday. Thankfully they are at 3:30 P.M. Should be an absolute beauty. The model also prints out nearly 3.00" in a six hour period over NYC. Obviously overdone, but as I said before, in my opinion, flood watches should be hoisted for NYC and nearby environs. In addition, there is probably enough evidence for wind advisory criteria being met over coastal locations Saturday night, with Long Island maybe meeting high wind criteria. If this were an all snow storm, this would easily meet blizzard criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah losing faith in snow for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS and SREFS are outliers. No reason to go against a locked in euro. Even the NAM agrees. Rare to get three NAM runs in a row that look the same, mark that date down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You still thinking a few mangle flakes north and west? O yes and accumulations nw of 287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 So basically the Euro stays steady at 0z and the NAM stays with a QPF bomb at 6z. The GFS moves a touch to the east but is still too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Also phily will see more snow than nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Would this be high Wind watch event or wind advisory ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think if you live outside the 5 boroughs and LI, you will see mainly snow from this. A GFS type scenario pushes that back some, but I think you're going to need WSW's for everyone but the city and LI. The Euro/NAM tandem supports that idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 6Z NAM soundings KNYC is snow pretty much from the get go. Don't care what the clown maps say, the skew t's dont lie. At 36 hours surface is between 1 to 2 C before the heavier precip kicks in and then hovers near freezing under the deform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Also phily will see more snow than nyc I can see it playing out that way....w-e gradient earthlight was talking about...newark will see more snow then nyc........but nyc will see flakes, hate to have you bust....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Would this be high Wind watch event or wind advisory ? probably short of wind advisory....gusts to around 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A few things going on here. It's good to see the NAM and Euro essentially have the same solution right now--especially with the Euro repeating it's solution from it's earlier 12z run. That said, the GEFS continue to go west...the GFS is responding and doesn't seem to have any intentions of backing off. Seeing the SREF tick that way are a little concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 probably short of wind advisory....gusts to around 40. No snow no wind, boring haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 06Z RGEM Total Snow through 06Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS, Euro, NAM blend gives you this map: via Coastalwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 yeah, but the gfs really skews that i think more so than the colder nam does, and can't see any reason to go with that right now even with what the srefs are doing. Seeing the euro and nam in step is big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 looking at the 0z NAM, thats a weenies dream but way too cold for NYC, outlier as Upton states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 1319801766[/url]' post='1070035']looking at the 0z NAM, thats a weenies dream but way too cold for NYC, outlier as Upton states. 0z euro is as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 looking at the 0z NAM, thats a weenies dream but way too cold for NYC, outlier as Upton states. and this time yesterday upton barely mentioned a mangled flake anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 is it me or does Rina seem to be saying to heck with the forecast points i'm heading to florida http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 is it me or does Rina seem to be saying to heck with the forecast points i'm heading to florida http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-ir2.html That is probably the mid level circulation. The low level circulation is heading southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That is probably the mid level circulation. The low level circulation is heading southward. still she could pop a LLC under there....i don't want rina dampening out the short wave heading thru tennessee /N GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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