WildWeatherAdventure Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HPC has a 20% chance of eighteen inches plus in NW NJ for Day two. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWeatherAdventure Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep....hr_probs_sn.php Ah cool, thanks. I wouldn't mind seeing a nice foot of snow for Halloween haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 well I bet on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol the Euro clown snowfall maps on wunderground are insane tonight. Not even going to bother posting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol the Euro clown snowfall maps on wunderground are insane tonight. Not even going to bother posting them. Please do. I have been up for 36 hours straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol the Euro clown snowfall maps on wunderground are insane tonight. Not even going to bother posting them. Please do this weenie wants a laugh while im at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Please do. I have been up for 36 hours straight Hopefully not because of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS and Euro have identical placement of the lows but the Euro is colder. Hopefully not because of the storm. That and I had work last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am curious to see while this could make history with the fact an inch or more snow could very well happen for NYC since keeping records I don't buy in the 6" or more situation due to the fact the surface temps will be just bit too warm while it will between 33 to 36 F and with the warm ground. Remember this is October for a real significant snowfall is just likely due to history. This will sure still be a very interesting weekend the fact accumulating snow is possibility for even the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 As I and others on this and the previous board have pointed out, from 1983 to 1996 (with the small exception of the 1993 March superstorm) there were no major snowstorms in NYC and the immediate coast. Then the Blizzard of 1996 happened, and the switch was flipped. Even though we have had years since with little snowfall, this is just an incredible era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro clown maps. These are snow totals for only 3-hour intervals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 10/29 might be something we talk about to our Grandkids. Just think about that. in October with some green foliage on some of the trees with color just starting in the coastal regions. This is really y weather to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM looks more amped.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 After the 0Z guidance, a movie quote by Robert Deniro remains in my head: "I'm not calling anyone yet. You can't rush this, I've seen it too many times before, and I want to make sure this torch doesn't walk. We're gonna wait." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM looks more amped.... Oh, it is........Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That's considerably cooler than the 0z NAM at the same time... about a degree and a half at the surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Low bombs out earlier but end result is similar, slightly stronger, and roughly the same precip with less of a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 TWC 3-5" for PHL and NYC Surprised they pulled the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You guys near the coast... don't look at the 03z SREF guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I have heard a few people mention sun angle. Keep in mind we have the same sun angle as late February. It is the fact that there isn't an antecedent arctic air mass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You guys near the coast... don't look at the 03z SREF guidance Well, its GFSish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ067&warncounty=NYC071&firewxzone=NYZ067&local_place1=Chester+NY&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I have heard a few people mention sun angle. Keep in mind we have the same sun angle as late February. It is the fact that there isn't an antecedent arctic air mass in place. Its the equivalent sun angle to 2/11. There should be no real issue with the sun angle though I have seen some sources bring it up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At this rate, it is hard to see how the northwestern hills of Suusex county New Jersey doesn't see at least a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Its the equivalent sun angle to 2/11. There should be no real issue with the sun angle though I have seen some sources bring it up as well. It was even referenced in a round about way in the NWSFO Upton discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Upton is being <i>extremely</i> bearish for their forecast for NYC: Saturday: Rain, mainly after 8am. Temperature falling to around 36 by 4pm. Breezy, with a east wind between 15 and 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. <b>New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.</b> Saturday Night: Rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow. Low around 33. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 26 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. <b>New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.</b> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The SREF really isn't that bad for here in the NW Bronx... Looks like right on the 50/50 line for 8+ in 12 hours... The issue is that the cutoff is very steep as you get near the immediate coast... Ergo, any movement west kills it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Upton is being <i>extremely</i> bearish for their forecast for NYC: Saturday: Rain, mainly after 8am. Temperature falling to around 36 by 4pm. Breezy, with a east wind between 15 and 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. <b>New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.</b> Saturday Night: Rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow. Low around 33. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 26 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. <b>New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.</b> I mentioned on Thursday that a flood watch may be warranted for coastal areas Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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