simpsonsbuff Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Only about 2 inch per hour rates here in NW Bronx... Just your everyday stuff for October... mm5 is a monster hit for most of the area away from the immediate shores. here's the % of frozen precipitation. http://cheget.msrc.s...oci.48.0000.gif and here's the 3 hr qpf at that time. http://cheget.msrc.s...cp3.48.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 went with a 30% chance of 4" at nyc. highest was 60% at sussex, nj and 40% at mmu. I think Riverdale is at least 2 times as likely as NYC to reach 4". And certainly MMU and Sussex should have significantly better chances than that. Personally I wouldn't go above 50% anywhere, and I would have NYC below 10%. In my mind, 1" at NYC is 50/50. That could come up significantly if the current consensus track holds and thermal profiles continue to be cold down to 950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If NYC has over 1 inch of snow on the grass, it will be a record. I'm rooting for the record to be broken. Anyone have EURO data? I can't sleep after watching that amazing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Only about 2 inch per hour rates here in NW Bronx... Just your everyday stuff for October... I'm much happier that the MM5 agrees with the NAM moreso than the GFS...given that the RGEM is somewhat similar (warmer, I know, but when is it not?), it seems its the meso models vs.the spectrals (save for the UKIE)...the one thing that bothers me is GFS's handling of the kicker s/w...GFS tends to do better with northern stream s/w's than the NAM. Just some food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the rgem is probably too warm at the surface given what it shows on it's synoptic maps. this is very nam-like and would likely yield thermal profiles similar to the nam. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCREGEAST_0z/f48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it's always possible the nam is a hair too cold. but the rgem, nam, ukie, mm5 camp is definitely more favorable for snow here than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I said before that the NW trend could continue and the storm could be right on the coast. In this case, even if it's offshore, it wou so ld still draw in too much warm air for any snow until it starts to pull away. That's why expecting more than a few flakes towards the end of the storm is probably best rather than hoping for any accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it's always possible the nam is a hair too cold. but the rgem, nam, ukie, mm5 camp is definitely more favorable for snow here than the gfs. Looks like this: RGEM,GGEM,UKIE,MM5,SREF,NAM vs GFS,JMA,Nogaps,GEFS Euro is coming out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Climo certainly favors a more west track this time of year, we've had systems take benchmark tracks or slightly inside of that before but generally tracks nearer the coast or inland are favored in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GEFS are warm and west---dramatically so, too. Hopefully they are out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I just realized that the mesoscale models aren't being run because of the hurricane models still being run. I also looked for the SREF's at 8:30 P.M. forgetting we are still in October. That would be as weird as say, a team coming from behind in a World Series game twice in an elimination game down to their last strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GEFS are warm and west---dramatically so, too. Hopefully they are out to lunch. And I think we are back to reality, it was way too good to be true, but it's only October, so any snowfall is a huge treat, even seeing a few snowflakes which could still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 cras has a 976mb coastal hugger http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/index_pcp_m_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 cras has a 976mb coastal hugger http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/index_pcp_m_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 cras has a 976mb coastal hugger http://cimss.ssec.wi...pcp_m_loop.html Thats not the worst thing in the world, it usually is west with everything, in this scenario based on other models I'd expect it to be over Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thats not the worst thing in the world, it usually is west with everything, in this scenario based on other models I'd expect it to be over Pittsburgh. LOL! Euro running yet anyone? Any minute now is judgement day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro is a monster hit..looks essentially like it's 12z run...maybe a touch warmer. Nothing like the GFS 1000-500mb thicknesses or thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro is sick, maybe a mile or 2 west of 12z.. Massive band overhead at hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro is a monster hit..looks essentially like it's 12z run...maybe a touch warmer. Nothing like the GFS 1000-500mb thicknesses or thermal profiles. A bit west or east from 12Z or same place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro is a monster hit..looks essentially like it's 12z run...maybe a touch warmer. Nothing like the GFS 1000-500mb thicknesses or thermal profiles. Thank the lord, post an image if you can, for comparison's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A bit west or east from 12Z or same place? Look up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro is a monster hit..looks essentially like it's 12z run...maybe a touch warmer. Nothing like the GFS 1000-500mb thicknesses or thermal profiles. impressive consistency. cant wait for your maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Look up Excellent. Thanks. Bring on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro is sick, maybe a mile or 2 west of 12z.. Massive band overhead at hr 48 I'm pretty sure the pixels are more than a mile wide.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well, game still on until, 12z EURO! lol @modelwars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 cras has a 976mb coastal hugger http://cimss.ssec.wi...pcp_m_loop.html geez drops 24mb in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 here's the 12z run if you want to compare. i lined them up perfectly so you can flip back and forth between the two images in your browser. it's maybe 15-20 miles west and subsequently 15 miles farther west with 540 dm1000-500mb thicknesses/etc. But the boundary layer temperatures are exactly the same. it might actually be a bit slower and farther southwest than it is west. http://i.imgur.com/EMxJD.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm pretty sure the pixels are more than a mile wide.... true story geez drops 24mb in 12 hours. one time last year the cras had a 950mb inland blizzard..Crazy model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HPC has a 20% chance of eighteen inches plus in NW NJ for Day two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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