earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ukie is pretty good. Very similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Newark's all time record snow in October is 0.3" It would be fun to compile a list of records and identify which is the most and least likely to fall. I think Newark has a >50% of breaking the record. Easy to break in theory but it's also easy to imagine scenarios where Newark sees no snow accumulation at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If the Euro sticks with the NAM, great, if it goes the way of the GFS then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nick Gregory goes with zero snow accumulation for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nick Gregory goes with zero snow accumulation for NYC. On roadways, that is a cinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nick Gregory goes with zero snow accumulation for NYC. Very surprised that he has no accumulating snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 sitting pretty under that...left exit region of one jet and right entrance region of the other jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nick Gregory goes with zero snow accumulation for NYC. yea. jackpot is NW NJ up catskills then NW CT into MA. standard safe forecast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 DT's first guess pretty much has the 4-8" line from WV/MD border threw CPA/EPA, look out Scranton, into the Catskills and threw the NW hills of CT and all of West and Central MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nick Gregory goes with zero snow accumulation for NYC. Lee Goldberg had 1 to 3 for NYC tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How much does NYC need for the snowiest October on record? Not much but be careful what you wish for. 1972-3 and 1979-80 were not exactly stellar winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nick Gregory goes with zero snow accumulation for NYC. defies all logic given the date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 defies all logic given the date Who cares about the date. If the right dynamics are in place, we can see accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 defies all logic given the date Ace! Looks like you're here to take over Noreaster's graveyard shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC 0z Nam 10.5 inches of snow http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Knyc.txt 0z GFS gives NYC a little snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I like 4" as the over/under for Central Park... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I like 4" as the over/under for Central Park... If I had to make a forecast, I would go with rain to snow with 2-4 inches after the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not much but be careful what you wish for. 1972-3 and 1979-80 were not exactly stellar winters. 10/31/93 there was a system like this that tracked more inland and dropped heavy snow in central NY, that winter turned out well...it just so happens that more of the times snow reached NYC itself the winters did not turn out so well, but there have been many instances of October snow 50-75 miles inland where the ensuing winters were snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 interesting that the usually less wrapped and colder GFS is the opposite...while the usually amped and warm NAM takes its place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 10/31/93 there was a system like this that tracked more inland and dropped heavy snow in central NY, that winter turned out well...it just so happens that more of the times snow reached NYC itself the winters did not turn out so well, but there have been many instances of October snow 50-75 miles inland where the ensuing winters were snowy. Yea, just coincidental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Who cares about the date. If the right dynamics are in place, we can see accumulating snow. and why in the past 120+ years have the "right" dynamics never occurred in October....will it snowflake? possibly/probably...will there be multiple inches? NO WAY...Better chance of the Jets winning the super bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I went with 30% chance of 4" at NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 and why in the past 120+ years have the "right" dynamics never occurred in October....will it snowflake? possibly/probably...will there be multiple inches on the street? NO WAY...Better chance of the Jets winning the super bowl You seem confident about your prediction. Lets see what the Euro shows. We still have all day tomorrow to pan this storm out. Who knows, the models might shift more tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 went with a 30% chance of 4" at nyc. highest was 60% at sussex, nj and 40% at mmu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Suny MM5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You seem confident about your prediction. Lets see what the Euro shows. We still have all day tomorrow to pan this storm out. Who knows, the models might shift more tomorrow. just using logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nick Gregory goes with zero snow accumulation for NYC. Probably right... climo's a b*tch. Not to be a Debbie Downer here, but 38 and rain is much more likely than 32 and snow, at least for the city and LI. Just because it's close doesn't mean it will slide a few degrees colder. We're pretty much at the limit of what we can realistically expect for late October. I do hope I'm wrong, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 JMA also shifted west and looks like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 mm5 is a monster hit for most of the area away from the immediate shores. here's the % of frozen precipitation. http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2011102800/images_d2/boci.48.0000.gif and here's the 3 hr qpf at that time. http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2011102800/images_d2/pcp3.48.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 JMA also shifted west and looks like the GFS. Shocker, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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