Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro will be truly telling. Whichever american model it goes towards will probably be closer to the ultimate solution being that were 2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 CCB to save the day at 48 hours, everything crashes. Still a few good hours of snow west of the city here. But it's really getting dangerously close now. That is an amazing run for the far interior.. When I say far interior I mean FWN...MGJ..SWF...POU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Big time this run for areas east of NYC. Maybe a swiping by the deform banding on its way east, otherwise it's rain and a lot of wind. Hopefully the Euro stays course and doesn't crazy amplify like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Liquid equivilant of frozen QPF is near 1" over most of Northern NJ. NYC somewhere between 0.5 and 0.9. East of there a very sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro will be truly telling. Whichever american model it goes towards will probably be closer to the ultimate solution being that were 2 days out The RGEM being a little east could be a clue. Tonight's 0Z Nam was probably the dream run for much of the immediate coast. Quick rain then we crash to 33-34 by dark and snow like hell for 6 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That is an amazing run for the far interior.. When I say far interior I mean FWN...MGJ..SWF...POU Yeah it is. The clown maps on vista have 8-12" down into the immediate suburbs of NYC. Probably cut those in half...still 4-8" roughly and the possibility of 6 or more over West and NW NJ into SE NY. A western outlier amongst guidance right now but we will see where things go this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The RGEM being a little east could be a clue. Tonight's 0Z Nam was probably the dream run for much of the immediate coast. Quick rain then we crash to 33-34 by dark and snow like hell for 6 hours or so. Unfortunately the RGEM is still pretty warm http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2011102800/I_nw_r1_EST_2011102800_045.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah it is. The clown maps on vista have 8-12" down into the immediate suburbs of NYC. Probably cut those in half...still 4-8" roughly and the possibility of 6 or more over West and NW NJ into SE NY. A western outlier amongst guidance right now but we will see where things go this evening. Would East Rutherford count as a immediate suburb of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 things went quiet ehh? GFS wouldnt be soo bad if the low was 990ish and deepining... but a "weaker" storm doesnt draw in cold air as fast... for those of us along the I-95 corridor. A NAM/GFS blend would be fantastic for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ukie more like the NAM...not as wound up or close to the coast as the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We still have the EURO to look forward to anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i mean you cant expect epic run every time...there will be wobbles but its pretty much locked in for some of the area to get hit. if its not imby, oh well but its stil unbelievable seeing this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Again I think the key thing to watch is the kicking shortwave that will be located out in Montana/North Dakota as this system evolves. Looking at both the GFS and the Nam, its obvious that the reason why the GFS is further west and more amplified with the system is the simple fact that the flow is more amplified. Both the ridge in the Western Atlantic is stronger, and the ridge that represent the lull in between the two shortwaves (with the next one back towards Montana) is also more amplified on the 540dm. What is interesting is that the GFS has trended slower with this kicker shortwave, while the nam has trended faster. This difficult part of this forecast is that the kicker is currently offshore between Alaska and the Pacific NW, so we aren't really getting any radiosondes into the core of the 500mb trough currently. Still though, I'd have to lean towards the GFS having a better solution because the 500mb feature in question is on the edge of the NAMs gridded domain, where a lot of its model errors arises. Also interestingly the RGEM showed a similar less amplified solution and it is also a gridded model (run over North America). Thus, perhaps the differences in the evolution of the 500mb trough here are related to differences in spectral vs. nested grid models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ukie is like nam as well. does ukie have the same positioning of the kicker as nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ukie is like nam as well. does ukie have the same positioning of the kicker as nam Not sure... I haven't been able to find a site that has the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ukie is like nam as well. does ukie have the same positioning of the kicker as nam Good, sign, usually a sign the EURO will follow suit. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, Cardinals walkoff home run. Holy crap. /baseball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, Cardinals walkoff home run. Holy crap. /baseball What a game that was... Damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, Cardinals walkoff home run. Holy crap. /baseball probably the best WS game I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 things went quiet ehh? GFS wouldnt be soo bad if the low was 990ish and deepining... but a "weaker" storm doesnt draw in cold air as fast... for those of us along the I-95 corridor. A NAM/GFS blend would be fantastic for all. I think everyone was watching the World Series.... WOW! What a game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How much does NYC need for the snowiest October on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 that was incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the upstream trof/ridge amplification plays a bigger role in our storm's evolution than the downstream kicker shortwave, at least prior to 18z Saturday. Thereafter the kicker might serve to dampen the eastern US trof right at the moment that it might otherwise form a closed contour, but while our storm is in the incubation stages I think the synoptic influence moves in the downstream direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here we are on October 27th, and these are the SREF's at 51 hours. http://www.meteo.psu...PNE_21z/f51.gif If Ji and JB had a baby that kid couldn't even dream up such an early season scenario great disco in this thread, I'll return to lurking mode btw what was that model that mostly specializes in convective scenarios that people were posting last year that seemed to nail some of the deform banding especially prior to the boxing day storm? thanx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How much does NYC need for the snowiest October on record? Newark's all time record snow in October is 0.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liamdaly Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, Cardinals walkoff home run. Holy crap. /baseball I'm not sure which is more amazing, coming back from 2 runs down, 2 outs, 2 strikes, 2 times to win it or October snow in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 btw what was that model that mostly specializes in convective scenarios that people were posting last year that seemed to nail some of the deform banding especially prior to the boxing day storm? SPC-WRF...only runs to 36 hours so we don't really have an idea what's going on yet. It's best within 30 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z NOGAPS .. This solution goes with a pretty amped solution considering its bias of being very progressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If Ji and JB had a baby that kid couldn't even dream up such an early season scenario great disco in this thread, I'll return to lurking mode btw what was that model that mostly specializes in convective scenarios that people were posting last year that seemed to nail some of the deform banding especially prior to the boxing day storm? thanx MM5, spc wrf, ARW, NMM, and the RUC are all pretty good short range models..HRRR is decent too who's staying up for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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