baroclinic_instability Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like ETA 3 and ETA 6 are balancing it out somewhat. RGEM looks significantly further east than 18z... maybe we see a trend east with the models tonight? I have a tendency to agree here (at least in terms of not guaranteeing a tight coastal hugger), especially with the relative extremity of the precipitable waters across the Gulf Stream and significant potential for quite a bit of moist convection across the WCB. Not saying there is any type of east trend, but it would not be a good idea from a pure forecasting standpoint to discount eastward guidance given the potential for a strong coastal to develop associated with moist convection resulting in poorer inland low level trajectories...which would have a negative effect on WAA/mutual amplification since the jet/trough configuration will not be conducive to a negative tilt and a coupled DMC/curved jet highly positive feedback configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Before people get too excited, the RGEM only goes out to 48 hours, so its at the very edge of its range right now....be careful in investing too much into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the rgem plays on what i was discussing earlier with the w-e boundary in precipitation type that can develop in this setup. the city can very easily serve as a dividing line in that respect. the rgem hammers new jersey all the way to the hudson river, leaves nyc mixing, and areas east of there are rain through 48 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 More eye candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Oh, and over New Brunswick there's a 45 knot screaming NEly jet at 925 hPa (~500m).. transporting down as 20kt surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 omega KBDR. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ISP: 8.0" accumulate (10.9" fall) 47F down to 33F by 00Z Sunday QPF: 1.10" () MMU: QPF: 0.93" (all snow) Snowfall: 6.3" (8.9" falls) Down to 32/33F by 18Z. Is that right for ISP?? I mean it wont happen but still, what's inflating those numbers compared to other areas?? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is that right for ISP?? I mean it wont happen but still, what's inflating those numbers compared to other areas?? Haha Banding maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is that right for ISP?? I mean it wont happen but still, what's inflating those numbers compared to other areas?? Haha Higher QPF totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is that right for ISP?? I mean it wont happen but still, what's inflating those numbers compared to other areas?? Haha ? It is pretty much in line with the other totals (which are equally ridiculous, but I digress...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 omega KBDR. Nice Not as good as 18z, need that -32 region bigger and between H6 and H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 gfs exactly the same as 18z through 24 hours---maybe a hair more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 gfs exactly the same as 18z through 24 hours---maybe a hair more amplified. Isn't that what we had said about the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Anyways, GFS coming out now looks like 18z at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Isn't that what we had said about the NAM? No, I said all along the heights were less amplified (slightly) on the east coast as the NAM was coming out. The GFS appears to be going slightly in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No, I said all along the heights were less amplified (slightly) on the east coast as the NAM was coming out. The GFS appears to be going slightly in the other direction. Yea, I see it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS is a carbon copy of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'd be shocked if this run didn't come a little farther west than the 18z run...judging by the 33 hr h5 depiction. The height field is slightly more backed on the east coast and the h5 trough in the SE states is sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'd be shocked if this run didn't come a little farther west than the 18z run...judging by the 33 hr h5 depiction. The height field is slightly more backed on the east coast and the h5 trough in the SE states is sharper. Yeah NAM and the GFS are going in opposite directions. Hopefully the Euro splits the difference and goes right down the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 gfs exactly the same as 18z through 24 hours---maybe a hair more amplified. However, it is not the same with where it positions Rina is 24 hours... its significantly further north and east with the 850mb vorticity of Rina. We shall see if this has any implications on the shortwave in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Won't be a good run for the coast, thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, the surface low is almost on top of Ocean City Maryland at 39 hours. 1000-500 thicknesses are beginning to torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, the surface low is almost on top of Ocean City Maryland at 39 hours. 1000-500 thicknesses are beginning to torch. climo's a b**ch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, State College PA isn't out of the game yet I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Take the GFS and NAM and average them and were golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 An albany/catskill special, guess the 18z gefs were onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Won't be a good run for the coast, thats for sure. Yea this is further west... not because of Rina may not have a major impact in the mid and upper levels now since it primarily a low level feature by this point, but because of the kicker trough which is somewhat slower, which will allow our 500mb trough to phase further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 QPF bomb at 45 hours...but 850 and 925 mb temps are on the verge of going above 0 c. They are above 0c east of the city. West and Northwest of the city are barely escaping it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 CCB to save the day at 48 hours, everything crashes. Still a few good hours of snow west of the city here. But it's really getting dangerously close now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How in the world do I stay up for another 90 minutes waiting for the EURO?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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