Model performance on weekend storm

[Paweatherguy1]

Just a question for all the METS and more informed amateurs than me, but is some of the worst performance you have ever seen out of the models? I can't remember a time when 3-4 days before the storm, there was so little agreement, and waffling from run to run. Sure, they have come to a sort of consensus now, but its 2 days out now.....

My other question is what would cause this, is it just a pattern that the models have a hard time geting a handle on?

Thanks.

[baroclinic_instability]

We have been discussing it extensively in the central forums. I gave a long discussion on it on why models sucked. Mostly deals with lack of phasing early on as models didn't complete a phase of the polar vortex with the southern stream shortwave until the system progressed into the OV. With a complete phasing, much more low level cold air greatly enhances the low level thermal gradient which supports rapid positive feedback cyclogenesis. Models also underestimated the jet streak and the associated PV Anomaly initiating deep cyclogenesis.

We are on page 40 something, start at page 6-7

http://www.americanw...event-part-iii/

[Paweatherguy1]

We have been discussing it extensively in the central forums. I gave a long discussion on it on why models sucked. MOstly deals with lack of phasing early on as models didn't complete a phase of the polar vortex with the southern stream shortwave until the system progressed into the OV. With a complete phasing, much more low level cold air greatly enhances the low level thermal gradient which supports rapid positive feedback cyclogenesis. Models also underestimated the jet streeak and the associated PV Anomaly initiating deep cyclogenesis.

We are on page 40 something, start at page 6-7

http://www.americanw...event-part-iii/

Wow, you guys are active.

Thanks!