2011 Winter Banter Thread

[CoastalWx]

I think the only reason expectations might be a little too high is because this Nina is weaker and we had quite a bit of blocking last year. It almost like we expect the nao and ao to go negative again for a good portion of the winter. That's probably the risky part.

I "think" we should do ok because the ao/nao "should" be favorable for a good stretch or couple of stretches but I have my doubts too. With that being said, my wag would be that this winter will be warmer than last but we'll have more snow but what the heck do I know.

Even in a negative NAO decadal regime, we still have to go through times where the NAO is positive in the winter. I'm not suggesting this will be one, but it will come sooner or later.

The EC ensembles do try and force a little ridging in western Canada, but they also have a trough in the sw too. It probably would imply a gradient pattern somewhere near the nrn US and Canada, as shown. I'm thinking mid December at the earliest for any real change. It doesn't mean we can't have opportunities, but I'm referring to an overall change to a wintry pattern.

[Bob Chill]

Even in a negative NAO decadal regime, we still have to go through times where the NAO is positive in the winter. I'm not suggesting this will be one, but it will come sooner or later.

The EC ensembles do try and force a little ridging in western Canada, but they also have a trough in the sw too. It probably would imply a gradient pattern somewhere near the nrn US and Canada, as shown. I'm thinking mid December at the earliest for any real change. It doesn't mean we can't have opportunities, but I'm referring to an overall change to a wintry pattern.

Yessir. I've stared at the tabular monthly ao/nao stuff quite a bit recently. Some things I really like and some things I don't. Long story short, there is no reason to discount the possibility of a crappy ao/nao this winter.

I'm actually more concerned about the ao than the nao. We always focus on the nao because that is usually required to be negative for a big east coast storm. However, we don't have to have a -nao to get snow here but we do need cold air. Especially down here in the MA. NE is far enough north to get snow even when the country is being hit with pac air and not polar/canadian stuff.

I'll take my chances with a -ao anyday and not care about the nao. With that being said, I don't see any signs of the ao going negative before Dec but that's ok. If we're having this same conversation 30 days from now then I'm gonna be bummed.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not sure we need Siberian air.....I think there is enough cold air in AK, Western Canada that if we can get the EPO to flip, it would make it down here and even if modified, the air mass would be plenty sufficient for snow at this latitude

I'm not a huge fan of the airmass progged in Canada, but if we were to get the EPO to tank more, you'd have a decent meridional transport south, and probably sufficient enough.

[Organizing Low]

you guys proved a couple years ago that Canada can be baking warm and it can still snow down there.

i cannot emphasize this enough because we were all left scratching our collective heads up here.

Just depends on the pattern and the 500 heights.

[CoastalWx]

at least you, Will and Wes are consistent and unflinching in your abject pessimism toward the pattern over the next 3-4 weeks....nobody can claim you were hedging and you all have a good way of delivering bad news....the same news one month from now will have most of us on the ledge

I hate it as much as you do. I'm hoping around mid month for a true change, but I wouldn't be shocked if it took a little later. Sometimes in these hostile patterns we can get a couple of events to sneak in, so hope is not all lost, but for a TRUE change...I think patience is going to be key. People have argued about the PNA rising and it does, but we are only as good as the airmass in Canada. Will pointed out how the cold on the euro ensembles actually shifts east to near Hudson bay, but we have no -NAO to bring it south. Western Canada actually warms up bit from zonal flow. If the ridge in western Canada can sharpen, then the cold will be more aggressive to come south.

Slowly but surely the AK trough is trying to weaken or shift nw, but I want the whole thing gone. Somehow, either via tropical forcing or a comet impact....we gotta get the ridge out in ne Asia and replace it with a trough. -EPO, if that happens. It's sort of concerning that this whole regime is stable and several factors support it right now. It will probably take a decent MJO wave combined with a few other things to help weaken and dislodge it. I think it will happen...it will just take its sweet time.

[mitchnick]

I hate it as much as you do. I'm hoping around mid month for a true change, but I wouldn't be shocked if it took a little later. Sometimes in these hostile patterns we can get a couple of events to sneak in, so hope is not all lost, but for a TRUE change...I think patience is going to be key. People have argued about the PNA rising and it does, but we are only as good as the airmass in Canada. Will pointed out how the cold on the euro ensembles actually shifts east to near Hudson bay, but we have no -NAO to bring it south. Western Canada actually warms up bit from zonal flow. If the ridge in western Canada can sharpen, then the cold will be more aggressive to come south.

Slowly but surely the AK trough is trying to weaken or shift nw, but I want the whole thing gone. Somehow, either via tropical forcing or a comet impact....we gotta get the ridge out in ne Asia and replace it with a trough. -EPO, if that happens. It's sort of concerning that this whole regime is stable and several factors support it right now. It will probably take a decent MJO wave combined with a few other things to help weaken and dislodge it. I think it will happen...it will just take its sweet time.

unlike most of us weenies on the Board

[Amped]

We are getting so PDOwned this winter

[Bob Chill]

In the last 60 years, the nao and ao index were both positive or neutral pos in the sept - nov timeframe only 3 years. They are 1967, 1978, and 1999. None of the years are very similar matches though. Just close enough to be matched statistically. 1967 is probably the closest.

67 & 78 both flipped to a good winter pattern and 99 is a well known dud.

I really don't see any of the major indices doing us any favors for the next couple of weeks. If I had to guess, the first half of Dec is probably not going to do much either. Time will tell.

[mitchnick]

In the last 60 years, the nao and ao index were both positive or neutral pos in the sept - nov timeframe only 3 years. They are 1967, 1978, and 1999. None of the years are very similar matches though. Just close enough to be matched statistically. 1967 is probably the closest.

67 & 78 both flipped to a good winter pattern and 99 is a well known dud.

I really don't see any of the major indices doing us any favors for the next couple of weeks. If I had to guess, the first half of Dec is probably not going to do much either. Time will tell.

a cold 20-25 days with 3 storms over 2 1/2 weeks in JAN, 2000 pushing BWI with around 25" of snow

I'd take that again

[Bob Chill]

a cold 20-25 days with 3 storms over 2 1/2 weeks in JAN, 2000 pushing BWI with around 25" of snow

I'd take that again

Yea, there was a period in there. It was pretty darn warm overall though. Especially in the n plains. November was really warm too. I don't think 99 is a good analog anyway. Just has some basic matching #'s.

But yes, I would take a 3 week winter over no winter anyday.

[North Balti Zen]

Wait til Ji reads Wes' latest post on the main forum. He may cancel the next 10 winters.

[mitchnick]

Wait til Ji reads Wes' latest post on the main forum. He may cancel the next 10 winters.

I like the way Wes tries to break it to us lightly....it's gonna be tough for snow lovers in the MA during the 1st couple weeks in DEC

otoh, except for 02' and 09', it's been tough for snow lovers in the MA the first couple weeks of DEC for the last 15-20 years so no one should give up

we will still get a pattern change during the holidays this year, it's just that it's gonna be the Christmas/New Year's holidays and not Thanksgiving!

[Herb@MAWS]

MD-DC-NOVA Fact of Life: We get most of our snow Jan-Feb.

[Bob Chill]

I think the odds strongly favor Wes' forecast being correct. The larger scale pattern is clearly against us for now. We usually get winter in 2-3 shots each year with obvious breaks in between. The length of those shots varies quite a bit though. lol

If we don't see anything meaningful by this time next month then we are probably in a bit of trouble this winter. My wag is the first shot of winter this year happens in late Dec and will last 3-4 weeks tops so it better be good.

[mitchnick]

and 2003 and 2005 and 2007 and 2010

well, we certainly received snow those years, but with last year receiving 1.2" at BWI and 07 being the only snow of note, I was thinking more on the lines of early DEC heralding in a cold and snowy winter, which is why I mentioned 02' and 09

03' had more at BWI than I recalled, but then that winter hit a brick wall; 05' was crappy winter except for the 2/06 fluke

all in all, my point was more along the lines of Herb's, JAN & FEB are our months for decent snows and anything in early DEC almost constitutes a fluke in my tired, old book

[mitchnick]

even if we get the vortex in the GOA to retrograde, it isn't necessarily a good pattern for us, but it is a necessary step.....But I think that speaks more to the fact that La NIna generally supports unfavorable patterns for snow/cold....

you forgot to add "south of 40N"!

[mitchnick]

well yeah...It is important, and this is why subforums are good sometimes, because if we get ridging over AK, it is likely to be a favorable pattern for New England even without blocking or a ridge in Western Canada, but still might suck for us

yep

if my hair-brained theory that the E-QBO may save us this year is gonna' work, it better start dropping fast

my only fear with the theory was that the QBO wouldn't drop fast as it didn't in 91/92, just sort of got stuck

sadly, it looks like it may be stalling this year, or at least the fall is far weaker than all the decent snowy years, but we'll know if that is a stronger possibility/likelihood once the NOV number comes out the first week of DEC

[MN Transplant]

MD-DC-NOVA Fact of Life: We get most of our snow Jan-Feb.

Yep

Simple climo. Total snowfall by day. Blue is full record at DCA, Red is current location in the river only. Lines are 7 day moving average, but are not centered, so take note of that (adjust back by a few days).

Fun fact, there has not been accumulating snow at current DCA on 12/29 or 1/2, but there has every day in early March up to the 14th.

[Bob Chill]

yep

if my hair-brained theory that the E-QBO may save us this year is gonna' work, it better start dropping fast

my only fear with the theory was that the QBO wouldn't drop fast as it didn't in 91/92, just sort of got stuck

sadly, it looks like it may be stalling this year, or at least the fall is far weaker than all the decent snowy years, but we'll know if that is a stronger possibility/likelihood once the NOV number comes out the first week of DEC

The AK vortex / -pna does have me concerned to some extent. Just like what zwts said about it retrograding and we still have a crappy pattern down this far south. The vortex isn't the only thing causing us problems and the current setup could easily be the predominent one overall this winter.

Even with the -pna and crappy epo we aren't torching. We've actually bveen quite seasonal. That might not be the same case later on because of the change in wavelengths as we move into winter but I don't know much about that stuff to comment on.

The MA can be frustrating to say the least. Obviously much more can go wrong than right for us but at the end of the day we almost always get some snow and cold during the winter.

We all want the trifecta (-ao/nao and +pna) but this may prove to be harder to get this year than we kinda expected going in. I'm not a debbie downer or anything. I have some optismism about this winter for good reasons and not just looking through weenie glasses.

I usually try to ignore crappy patterns but I plan on paying close attention to this one. Especially the larger scale features.

[mitchnick]

The AK vortex / -pna does have me concerned to some extent. Just like what zwts said about it retrograding and we still have a crappy pattern down this far south. The vortex isn't the only thing causing us problems and the current setup could easily be the predominent one overall this winter.

Even with the -pna and crappy epo we aren't torching. We've actually bveen quite seasonal. That might not be the same case later on because of the change in wavelengths as we move into winter but I don't know much about that stuff to comment on.

The MA can be frustrating to say the least. Obviously much more can go wrong than right for us but at the end of the day we almost always get some snow and cold during the winter.

We all want the trifecta (-ao/nao and +pna) but this may prove to be harder to get this year than we kinda expected going in. I'm not a debbie downer or anything. I have some optismism about this winter for good reasons and not just looking through weenie glasses.

I usually try to ignore crappy patterns but I plan on paying close attention to this one. Especially the larger scale features.

I have to admit, seeing that d@mn high pressure move through the mid-section of the country then into the SE and off the coast is very reminiscent of 07/08

but, I still expect a change for the better by Christmas, give or tak, unlike 07/08

[mattie g]

"Ji getting ready to cancer winter again..."

[usedtobe]

even if we get the vortex in the GOA to retrograde, it isn't necessarily a good pattern for us, but it is a necessary step.....But I think that speaks more to the fact that La NIna generally supports unfavorable patterns for snow/cold....

No it's not but gives us shots a clippers. Without the ao or nao negative, we need a favorable pna pattern to get us cold enough to have a hope of snow. Of course, the 18Z gfs gives us snow at 264 hrs without a negative nao......I'd put the odds of that at .0001%.

[Ji]

No it's not but gives us shots a clippers. Without the ao or nao negative, we need a favorable pna pattern to get us cold enough to have a hope of snow. Of course, the 18Z gfs gives us snow at 264 hrs without a negative nao......I'd put the odds of that at .0001%.

kind of foolish odds...snow in early Dec not that uncommon...even a dusting

[mitchnick]

No it's not but gives us shots a clippers. Without the ao or nao negative, we need a favorable pna pattern to get us cold enough to have a hope of snow. Of course, the 18Z gfs gives us snow at 264 hrs without a negative nao......I'd put the odds of that at .0001%.

actually, looking at surface temps and thicknesses verbatim, most of it looks to falls as rain to these weenie eyes!

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies are still rather tough for the MA...heck even into SNE. Week 4 does offer some subtle height rises in the west and in the NATL, but looks very gradient like. It would be tough probably from NJ or NYC on south, and even we in SNE are on the edge.

Just hope that vortex backs up enough to pump up ridging in NW Canada. I think the NAO is gone until well into December at least, so you'll have to pin your hopes on that. You can tell on some of the op progs, that it is possible to get those events if it is times right, so it isn't a pipe dream....but overall, the pattern seems hostile over the MA for another 2-3 weeks.

[brad1551]

LRF is possible. The accuracy may not be 100%. I know that the winter forecast came out in my area awhile ago. The forecast differed just a little between all of them, but they were all in the same cenius. Calling for a cold winter -1 to -3 below avg. Now it is looking like the opposite . Let's just say even with above temps, you can still have a decent winter if you like Ice & slush. Lol. Not a hater really. This winter is going to play it's cards. So let's just go ahead and play them then. I still believe we will in the northern va will have average snow, it's just going to take longer then some of us thought. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone this week and God Bless everyone.

[usedtobe]

Weeklies are still rather tough for the MA...heck even into SNE. Week 4 does offer some subtle height rises in the west and in the NATL, but looks very gradient like. It would be tough probably from NJ or NYC on south, and even we in SNE are on the edge.

Just hope that vortex backs up enough to pump up ridging in NW Canada. I think the NAO is gone until well into December at least, so you'll have to pin your hopes on that. You can tell on some of the op progs, that it is possible to get those events if it is times right, so it isn't a pipe dream....but overall, the pattern seems hostile over the MA for another 2-3 weeks.

Thanks for the words about the weeklies. I pretty much agree with everything you're saying but I don't mind it staying relatively warm. I'll golf as long as the temps stay in the 40s during the day.

[Bob Chill]

Someone tell me why I shouldn't be interested in what the euro shows @ days 6-8. 500 closes off and tracks through TN and across the va tidewater. 850's around -4 or so? The only thing I don't see is a source for the cold air. Raleigh's site doesn't have surface temps so I don't know if it is a cold rain or white rain.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Someone tell me why I shouldn't be interested in what the euro shows @ days 6-8. 500 closes off and tracks through TN and across the va tidewater. 850's around -4 or so? The only thing I don't see is a source for the cold air. Raleigh's site doesn't have surface temps so I don't know if it is a cold rain or white rain.

Because winter is over. Yes, I know, it was brief. Maybe we'll do better next year.

I like the fact that we are seeing some change in the models. Even if it isn't ideal as alluded to by our pros, at least it is something with a different look.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

[Bob Chill]

Because winter is over. Yes, I know, it was brief. Maybe we'll do better next year.

I like the fact that we are seeing some change in the models. Even if it isn't ideal as alluded to by our pros, at least it is something with a different look.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

There are some relatviely significant changes in the lr. Most importantly, the -pna is breaking down and going neutral to pos neutral. Stupid dumb vortex in AK just won't pull anchor though.

It's nice ridging popping up around the wc and intermountain. If the nao/ao aren't going to work in our favor then the pna has to save us. Any energy that can track to our S is worth watching. Always going to be marginal on temps but what else is new. At least we're not tracking a big se ridge.......yet.