2011 Winter Banter Thread

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Detailed video discussion on the very latest La Nina conditions at spam.com with a specific reference to “east-based” vs. “west-based” and why “east-based” and“weak-to-moderate” are still the favored La Nina scenarios.

If you are Paul Dorian you should ask a staff member for a Met Tag

Good discussion....and certainly right now we have an east based La Nina...It is pretty wimpy in Region 3.4 and 4......I think that is the trend anyway for N/D/J of late....The only true west based Nina we have had in the last 20 years was 1998-99.....the rest have been east/central based or basin wide

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The AO is not our friend right now. After looking at this chart, it's interesting to see that it had been neutral or positive since the end of August.

I pulled all the years since 1950 with neutral and positive AO's during Sept-Nov and came up with this:

1953*

1961*

1967

1971

1975

1989

2005

53 and 61 aren't the best because they both had a neg neutral month during Sept-Nov.

1971 is by far the best match because the AO was negative or neg neutral the preceeding winter and is coming off the heels of an extended -AO streak of winters. 2005 is the second best match.

Another thing that makes 71-72 stand out is that is was a second year Nina. I know many here already know how this is going to look but for those who don't, here is our beloved winter of 71-72's temps:

I'm abosultely not saying that I believe we are going to have a 71-72 redux because there are other parts of the pattern that don't fit. However, it's hard to discount the year because ENSO and the AO are a pretty good statistical match.

71-72 has been a popular analog in the last 10 years...I have seen it a lot but it never really materializes with a hot December/January and a cold snowy February....we might have some insight soon as that December was an absolute torch...

[Bob Chill]

71-72 has been a popular analog in the last 10 years...I have seen it a lot but it never really materializes with a hot December/January and a cold snowy February....we might have some insight soon as that December was an absolute torch...

Holy cow! I just looked at the Dec temp anoms for 71. +10!

There was one heck of a strong se ridge during that month too. I checked out height anoms and it was a major -pna with big trough in the west.

Kinda hard to see that happening again. The crappy pac we have now would have to hold serve and become even crappier for Dec.

[BethesdaWX]

The AO is not our friend right now. After looking at this chart, it's interesting to see that it had been neutral or positive since the end of August.

I pulled all the years since 1950 with neutral and positive AO's during Sept-Nov and came up with this:

1953*

1961*

1967

1971

1975

1989

2005

53 and 61 aren't the best because they both had a neg neutral month during Sept-Nov.

1971 is by far the best match because the AO was negative or neg neutral the preceeding winter and is coming off the heels of an extended -AO streak of winters. 2005 is the second best match.

Another thing that makes 71-72 stand out is that is was a second year Nina. I know many here already know how this is going to look but for those who don't, here is our beloved winter of 71-72's temps:

I'm abosultely not saying that I believe we are going to have a 71-72 redux because there are other parts of the pattern that don't fit. However, it's hard to discount the year because ENSO and the AO are a pretty good statistical match.

I'm no pro met, but now I really think it's 1967/68 for the win here, we torched in December then as well. When I look at the similarities, it's quite amazing actually, cool in the SE for the fall, -PDO and 2nd year La Nina, QBO negative in the upper levels while remaining positive at the lower levels, weak Sun, only difference was the AMO phase.

My untrained eyes can't see anything of note happening here until at least Xmas, my opinion isn't worth shat though.

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I'm no pro met, but now I really think it's 1967/68 for the win here, we torched in December then as well. When I look at the similarities, it's quite amazing actually, cool in the SE for the fall, -PDO and 2nd year La Nina, QBO negative in the upper levels while remaining positive at the lower levels, weak Sun, only difference was the AMO phase.

My untrained eyes can't see anything of note happening here until at least Xmas, my opinion isn't worth shat though.

I think it is a bad idea to focus on any one analog....They need to be used more broadly I think......my guess and it is a guess is that December is colder across the mid-Atlantic and southeast than 1967 and that Nina is more of a factor in Jan/Feb than in 1967.....I don't expect we will see negative height anomalies in the south when this winter is all said and done....ground truth and snow are different stories, but as far as the Conus, I think this winter will show the effects of Nina more than that winter....more SE ridge....more -PDO/PNA

[BethesdaWX]

Oh of course RE analog range and the SE ridge, a bad idea to get too specific and lose sample size, I weight your opinion more heavily than mine to be honest. Hoping I bust Having not lived in 1967/68 I can only invision what the global longwave pattern may have looked like on satellite (is what I use daily to attempt an understanding).

BTW My brother sent me something amazing, a perfect between the geomag Sun & ENSO w/ 6yr lag, and DC winters, I'm thinking of starting a thread on it, totally gave me the chills because it worked every fookin time. If it works out, we're going to have some butt kicking winters in the middle of this decade.

[usedtobe]

I think it is a bad idea to focus on any one analog....They need to be used more broadly I think......my guess and it is a guess is that December is colder across the mid-Atlantic and southeast than 1967 and that Nina is more of a factor in Jan/Feb than in 1967.....I don't expect we will see negative height anomalies in the south when this winter is all said and done....ground truth and snow are different stories, but as far as the Conus, I think this winter will show the effects of Nina more than that winter....more SE ridge....more -PDO/PNA

Most of my longer posts got moved to the gneral forecast forum but I still don't see much happening until after the 1st or even more likely, second week of dec. I strongly agree with your statement about analogs. Thos who bank strongly on one, or only a few years have a good chance of busting as there is a certain amount of randomness, organized chaos associated with pattern and when they change. That's why no single factor or correlation has proven to be that great a forecast tool in the longer ranges and why forecasters tend to rely so heavily on the enso state. I'm with you about the southeast ridge being a bigger factor this year than in 1967. Right now, the rpna and have the southeast ridge showing up during la nina years.

[Bob Chill]

I think it is a bad idea to focus on any one analog....They need to be used more broadly I think......

Absolutely. I used to think differently before I started reading these boards 5 years ago. Earth's climate is so insanely complex. The chances of having 2 years having the exact same pattern setup is so small regardless of what the major indices are saying. Devil is always in the details.

I do enjoy breaking out certain pieces of the puzzle and looking for statistical similarities though. Especially the ENSO/NAO/AO stuff and most recently the PDO. I'm still trying to understand epo, mjo, glaam, etc.

I give the mets on this board major kudos for the lr analysis they post. Just excellent stuff to read on a regular basis.

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Most of my longer posts got moved to the gneral forecast forum but I still don't see much happening until after the 1st or even more likely, second week of dec. I strongly agree with your statement about analogs. Thos who bank strongly on one, or only a few years have a good chance of busting as there is a certain amount of randomness, organized chaos associated with pattern and when they change. That's why no single factor or correlation has proven to be that great a forecast tool in the longer ranges and why forecasters tend to rely so heavily on the enso state. I'm with you about the southeast ridge being a bigger factor this year than in 1967. Right now, the rpna and have the southeast ridge showing up during la nina years.

Thanks...I just read your post from this morning in the main weather forum....good stuff

[mitchnick]

all I can say is, many of the expectations on the Board were sent into a tizzy with the OCT storm

I cannot recall a NOV pattern, especially one that started at the beginning of the month, that lasted through the winter

89/90 it got real cold in NOV and then the winter went to he!!, literally as far as temps were concerned, right after Christmas

I'm tempted to say that if DEC comes in warm, then we may bust, but I think back to 89/90 when the rubber band broke and it got hot

I believe we will still do normal to AN snow at BWI as of the first day of Spring, but with the typical NINA variability of warm shots (if nothing else, NOV's pattern has made it quite clear that the Alaskan vortex and SE Ridge will make their presence known to us)

I also believe, come MAR, we will be pulling up a lot of NOV posts from anyone who is panicking now

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all I can say is, many of the expectations on the Board were sent into a tizzy with the OCT storm

I cannot recall a NOV pattern, especially one that started at the beginning of the month, that lasted through the winter

89/90 it got real cold in NOV and then the winter went to he!!, literally as far as temps were concerned, right after Christmas

I'm tempted to say that if DEC comes in warm, then we may bust, but I think back to 89/90 when the rubber band broke and it got hot

I believe we will still do normal to AN snow at BWI as of the first day of Spring, but with the typical NINA variability of warm shots (if nothing else, NOV's pattern has made it quite clear that the Alaskan vortex and SE Ridge will make their presence known to us)

I also believe, come MAR, we will be pulling up a lot of NOV posts from anyone who is panicking now

I don't think anyone is panicking....we have been through a wide variety of winters since these boards got popular......I do think expectations have been a bit too high for this winter, but I don't think people will be shocked if it "underperforms" a bit.....the 2001-02 scenario is what everyone fears...high expectations and a winter that never happens...but those winters are pretty rare.....I don't think we have to worry about that.....all that said, if December is a snowless torch I will be nervous

[Bob Chill]

I think the only reason expectations might be a little too high is because this Nina is weaker and we had quite a bit of blocking last year. It almost like we expect the nao and ao to go negative again for a good portion of the winter. That's probably the risky part.

I "think" we should do ok because the ao/nao "should" be favorable for a good stretch or couple of stretches but I have my doubts too. With that being said, my wag would be that this winter will be warmer than last but we'll have more snow but what the heck do I know.

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I think the only reason expectations might be a little too high is because this Nina is weaker and we had quite a bit of blocking last year. It almost like we expect the nao and ao to go negative again for a good portion of the winter. That's probably the risky part.

I "think" we should do ok because the ao/nao "should" be favorable for a good stretch or couple of stretches but I have my doubts too. With that being said, my wag would be that this winter will be warmer than last but we'll have more snow but what the heck do I know.

mine too

[CoastalWx]

I think the only reason expectations might be a little too high is because this Nina is weaker and we had quite a bit of blocking last year. It almost like we expect the nao and ao to go negative again for a good portion of the winter. That's probably the risky part.

I "think" we should do ok because the ao/nao "should" be favorable for a good stretch or couple of stretches but I have my doubts too. With that being said, my wag would be that this winter will be warmer than last but we'll have more snow but what the heck do I know.

Even in a negative NAO decadal regime, we still have to go through times where the NAO is positive in the winter. I'm not suggesting this will be one, but it will come sooner or later.

The EC ensembles do try and force a little ridging in western Canada, but they also have a trough in the sw too. It probably would imply a gradient pattern somewhere near the nrn US and Canada, as shown. I'm thinking mid December at the earliest for any real change. It doesn't mean we can't have opportunities, but I'm referring to an overall change to a wintry pattern.

[Bob Chill]

Even in a negative NAO decadal regime, we still have to go through times where the NAO is positive in the winter. I'm not suggesting this will be one, but it will come sooner or later.

The EC ensembles do try and force a little ridging in western Canada, but they also have a trough in the sw too. It probably would imply a gradient pattern somewhere near the nrn US and Canada, as shown. I'm thinking mid December at the earliest for any real change. It doesn't mean we can't have opportunities, but I'm referring to an overall change to a wintry pattern.

Yessir. I've stared at the tabular monthly ao/nao stuff quite a bit recently. Some things I really like and some things I don't. Long story short, there is no reason to discount the possibility of a crappy ao/nao this winter.

I'm actually more concerned about the ao than the nao. We always focus on the nao because that is usually required to be negative for a big east coast storm. However, we don't have to have a -nao to get snow here but we do need cold air. Especially down here in the MA. NE is far enough north to get snow even when the country is being hit with pac air and not polar/canadian stuff.

I'll take my chances with a -ao anyday and not care about the nao. With that being said, I don't see any signs of the ao going negative before Dec but that's ok. If we're having this same conversation 30 days from now then I'm gonna be bummed.

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Yessir. I've stared at the tabular monthly ao/nao stuff quite a bit recently. Some things I really like and some things I don't. Long story short, there is no reason to discount the possibility of a crappy ao/nao this winter.

I'm actually more concerned about the ao than the nao. We always focus on the nao because that is usually required to be negative for a big east coast storm. However, we don't have to have a -nao to get snow here but we do need cold air. Especially down here in the MA. NE is far enough north to get snow even when the country is being hit with pac air and not polar/canadian stuff.

I'll take my chances with a -ao anyday and not care about the nao. With that being said, I don't see any signs of the ao going negative before Dec but that's ok. If we're having this same conversation 30 days from now then I'm gonna be bummed.

I'm not sure we need Siberian air.....I think there is enough cold air in AK, Western Canada that if we can get the EPO to flip, it would make it down here and even if modified, the air mass would be plenty sufficient for snow at this latitude

[CoastalWx]

I'm not sure we need Siberian air.....I think there is enough cold air in AK, Western Canada that if we can get the EPO to flip, it would make it down here and even if modified, the air mass would be plenty sufficient for snow at this latitude

I'm not a huge fan of the airmass progged in Canada, but if we were to get the EPO to tank more, you'd have a decent meridional transport south, and probably sufficient enough.

[Organizing Low]

you guys proved a couple years ago that Canada can be baking warm and it can still snow down there.

i cannot emphasize this enough because we were all left scratching our collective heads up here.

Just depends on the pattern and the 500 heights.

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you guys proved a couple years ago that Canada can be baking warm and it can still snow down there.

i cannot emphasize this enough because we were all left scratching our collective heads up here.

Just depends on the pattern and the 500 heights.

that is pretty standard Nino climo...to get a reverse gradient....plus your hot is not that hot..air masses here that produce upper 30s to low 40s when it is clear are typically plenty sufficient for snow...not sure why you were scratching your heads....Northern VT is a virtual lock to bake in a moderate/strong Nino

[Deck Pic]

I'm not a huge fan of the airmass progged in Canada, but if we were to get the EPO to tank more, you'd have a decent meridional transport south, and probably sufficient enough.

at least you, Will and Wes are consistent and unflinching in your abject pessimism toward the pattern over the next 3-4 weeks....nobody can claim you were hedging and you all have a good way of delivering bad news....the same news one month from now will have most of us on the ledge

[CoastalWx]

at least you, Will and Wes are consistent and unflinching in your abject pessimism toward the pattern over the next 3-4 weeks....nobody can claim you were hedging and you all have a good way of delivering bad news....the same news one month from now will have most of us on the ledge

I hate it as much as you do. I'm hoping around mid month for a true change, but I wouldn't be shocked if it took a little later. Sometimes in these hostile patterns we can get a couple of events to sneak in, so hope is not all lost, but for a TRUE change...I think patience is going to be key. People have argued about the PNA rising and it does, but we are only as good as the airmass in Canada. Will pointed out how the cold on the euro ensembles actually shifts east to near Hudson bay, but we have no -NAO to bring it south. Western Canada actually warms up bit from zonal flow. If the ridge in western Canada can sharpen, then the cold will be more aggressive to come south.

Slowly but surely the AK trough is trying to weaken or shift nw, but I want the whole thing gone. Somehow, either via tropical forcing or a comet impact....we gotta get the ridge out in ne Asia and replace it with a trough. -EPO, if that happens. It's sort of concerning that this whole regime is stable and several factors support it right now. It will probably take a decent MJO wave combined with a few other things to help weaken and dislodge it. I think it will happen...it will just take its sweet time.

[mitchnick]

I hate it as much as you do. I'm hoping around mid month for a true change, but I wouldn't be shocked if it took a little later. Sometimes in these hostile patterns we can get a couple of events to sneak in, so hope is not all lost, but for a TRUE change...I think patience is going to be key. People have argued about the PNA rising and it does, but we are only as good as the airmass in Canada. Will pointed out how the cold on the euro ensembles actually shifts east to near Hudson bay, but we have no -NAO to bring it south. Western Canada actually warms up bit from zonal flow. If the ridge in western Canada can sharpen, then the cold will be more aggressive to come south.

Slowly but surely the AK trough is trying to weaken or shift nw, but I want the whole thing gone. Somehow, either via tropical forcing or a comet impact....we gotta get the ridge out in ne Asia and replace it with a trough. -EPO, if that happens. It's sort of concerning that this whole regime is stable and several factors support it right now. It will probably take a decent MJO wave combined with a few other things to help weaken and dislodge it. I think it will happen...it will just take its sweet time.

unlike most of us weenies on the Board

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I hate it as much as you do. I'm hoping around mid month for a true change, but I wouldn't be shocked if it took a little later. Sometimes in these hostile patterns we New England can get a couple of events to sneak in, so hope is not all lost, but for a TRUE change...I think patience is going to be key. People have argued about the PNA rising and it does, but we are only as good as the airmass in Canada. Will pointed out how the cold on the euro ensembles actually shifts east to near Hudson bay, but we have no -NAO to bring it south. Western Canada actually warms up bit from zonal flow. If the ridge in western Canada can sharpen, then the cold will be more aggressive to come south.

Slowly but surely the AK trough is trying to weaken or shift nw, but I want the whole thing gone. Somehow, either via tropical forcing or a comet impact....we gotta get the ridge out in ne Asia and replace it with a trough. -EPO, if that happens. It's sort of concerning that this whole regime is stable and several factors support it right now. It will probably take a decent MJO wave combined with a few other things to help weaken and dislodge it. I think it will happen...it will just take its sweet time.

FYP....

I think we got the AK trough to shift west in Dec 2007 and we were fortunate enough to get a brief PNA spike that gave us a decent clipper, but otherwise that was a bad pattern for us even though awesome for you since there was no blocking and generally no ridge in the west.......I am not greedy....I would like to see one modest DEC event and I don't think it is unreasonable....If it happens during a brief good period in an otherwise negative pattern that is fine with me... December is not normally a month where we score big events that are all snow especially in the 1st 2 weeks...I think most of us would sign on the dotted line for one 2-4" event in December....Not accounting for ENSO state, it has been 60/40 in favor of late for us getting a decent December event (2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010) versus a virtual shutout (2001, 2004, 2006, 2008), so I think expectations are higher than they should be for a historically so-so month, especially in a Nina that might crap out in February

[Amped]

We are getting so PDOwned this winter

[Bob Chill]

In the last 60 years, the nao and ao index were both positive or neutral pos in the sept - nov timeframe only 3 years. They are 1967, 1978, and 1999. None of the years are very similar matches though. Just close enough to be matched statistically. 1967 is probably the closest.

67 & 78 both flipped to a good winter pattern and 99 is a well known dud.

I really don't see any of the major indices doing us any favors for the next couple of weeks. If I had to guess, the first half of Dec is probably not going to do much either. Time will tell.

[mitchnick]

In the last 60 years, the nao and ao index were both positive or neutral pos in the sept - nov timeframe only 3 years. They are 1967, 1978, and 1999. None of the years are very similar matches though. Just close enough to be matched statistically. 1967 is probably the closest.

67 & 78 both flipped to a good winter pattern and 99 is a well known dud.

I really don't see any of the major indices doing us any favors for the next couple of weeks. If I had to guess, the first half of Dec is probably not going to do much either. Time will tell.

a cold 20-25 days with 3 storms over 2 1/2 weeks in JAN, 2000 pushing BWI with around 25" of snow

I'd take that again

[Bob Chill]

a cold 20-25 days with 3 storms over 2 1/2 weeks in JAN, 2000 pushing BWI with around 25" of snow

I'd take that again

Yea, there was a period in there. It was pretty darn warm overall though. Especially in the n plains. November was really warm too. I don't think 99 is a good analog anyway. Just has some basic matching #'s.

But yes, I would take a 3 week winter over no winter anyday.

[North Balti Zen]

Wait til Ji reads Wes' latest post on the main forum. He may cancel the next 10 winters.

[mitchnick]

Wait til Ji reads Wes' latest post on the main forum. He may cancel the next 10 winters.

I like the way Wes tries to break it to us lightly....it's gonna be tough for snow lovers in the MA during the 1st couple weeks in DEC

otoh, except for 02' and 09', it's been tough for snow lovers in the MA the first couple weeks of DEC for the last 15-20 years so no one should give up

we will still get a pattern change during the holidays this year, it's just that it's gonna be the Christmas/New Year's holidays and not Thanksgiving!

[Herb@MAWS]

MD-DC-NOVA Fact of Life: We get most of our snow Jan-Feb.