2011 Winter Banter Thread

[BethesdaWX]

I think it depends on the NAO state and where the gradient sets up as a result. Usually miller b's are a pain in the ass, and La Nina will always favor the early phasing of the Pacific and Polar streams that would lead to lake cutters unless there is a healthy block in place.

I think if a decent -NAO block can get going in tandem with a -PNA which is likely deeper in the winter, we may see a supressed SE ridge rather than a non-existant SE ridge (Supressed SE ridge is better than no SE ridge with a -NAO), then perhaps the gradient that has often set up in SNE may set up south for a time. That is the type of pattern that can really work for us in a La Nina though it is uncommon, but this would be the winter for it. A -PNA and -NAO/-AO resulting in a brief period of southern sliders tracking off the VA coast. That could be what happened in 1898-99 though I don't know enough about that winter to say it with any confidence, but it was a La Nina. ]

Also I feel the prospects for a bad ice storm this winter are worrisome, I'm trimming my trees next week somethings telling me I need to.

[mitchnick]

Ninas feature a split flow of the northern jet with little to no STJ interaction. I think the northern stream will remain active but stormtrack will make the diff between white and wet. This weekend's storm was just about as perfect as you can get with a 500mb ns vort tracking just right to bomb off the coast. Last year's 500mb vort on steroids in another example of how the MA can cash in. Even though last year was a bit heartbreaking for us in dc metro it was a bunch of really close calls. Easily could have worked out differently. The -NAO isn't always a good thing either. If it's too strong it will supress everything and the SE and far southern VA get hit pretty good while we shiver under blue skies.

09-10 had true stj interaction (classic nino). The vorts we're tracking across the desert sw and tapping the gulf as they passed by before going up the coast as miller a's.

We got close to getting couple good phasers last year but iirc both vorts were riding split flow of the polar jet and the stj was nowhere to be seen.

well, it was supposed to be perfect, that's how we were going to get accumulating snows

it ended up shifting north and it killed decent accumulating snows advertised 48+ hours out

I remain confident

[mitchnick]

It'll be interesting to look at that one month from now. Predicting it to fall off the table.

What did that same graph look like one month ago? Did they predict that steady period as shown by the chart?

top graph is from the 1st 10 days in October (this year) and the bottom one is the first 10 days in SEPT

CFS has definitely backed off the very strong NINA scenario, cutting anomalies from -3C to -1.5C

I expect further warming of its forecasts

[Bob Chill]

I'm not buying the CFS. I like looking at the 3 month averages instead of the monthlies for data. I may be wrong in thinking this, but enso is a seasonal effect moreso than affecting a specific month so I prefer to look at 3 month averages for analogs.

I use this data: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

There is pretty much no 3 month period that averages more than -2.0. Looking at the CFS would mean an overall moderate to even strong Nina is on tap. I just don't see how that is possible. Last year averaged out at -1.4 or so and I just don't see how this year comes out any stronger. I would guess that somewhere in the -.9 to -1.3 would be reasonable.

[Bob Chill]

I swear my memory is starting to get worse every year. It sucks getting old. IIRC- the cold anomolies off the coast of NS and PEI and warm anomolies surround Greenland during Sept-Nov points towards a favorable blockng -nao during DJF. I swear I read something about this last year.

The SST map above does have this signature.

Edit: I found the sst anom map that I saved from eastern. The following winters all featured a pretty good NAO.

The map zwts posted is just a current map so I'm not sure how the Sept - Nov will shap up this year. However, the atlantic looks really similar in zwts' map to the analog map.

[ORH_wxman]

yes..I think the SST signature in the Atlantic is favorable for high pressure over Greenland and low pressure near Newfoundland...too bad the PAC is an epic disaster...

My guess is the Nina peaks at low end moderate. So yeah, I'd agree that we just about discount a '99'-'00, '07-'08, and '10-'11 strength.

The PAC looks to remain a huge disaster for at least another two weeks IMHO...perhaps a bit longer. The ugly vortex in AK is part of a fairly stable global pattern at the moment and will likely need the help from some stronger factor like a robust MJO wave...unfortunately, we have a robust MJO wave, but it will be going through phases that actually support the AK vortex through early December...its after that when we will likely see our chance to shuffle out this garbage in the PAC.

The ensembles def want to try and build a -NAO in the long range around the final week of Nov and into the 1st week of Dec...so if we can get some cold air into Canada then the -NAO can be taken advantage of...but before that happens, it will probably be like a Dec 1996 or Dec 2001 -NAO...pretty much useless.

[midatlanticweather]

yes..I think the SST signature in the Atlantic is favorable for high pressure over Greenland and low pressure near Newfoundland...too bad the PAC is an epic disaster...

That cold pool off the NW US is AWFUL. It looks familiar too! I know I saw that in a not too distant sucky winter! Pacific Jet never relaxed that year. Is that what is being referred to?

[ORH_wxman]

Both Wes and I suggested in the other thread that we may not get a good PAC until Dec 10-15.....which is fine....I don't know why 40S wants to waste good patterns when climo chances of snow are so low....but yeah....in a Nina I do get kind of nervous around mid December if there is no real sign of hope as Feb climo leans so bad here....I don't think I do better than 14-16" IMBY so I am not that concerned about November or early DEC.....But if we see this pattern in a month it is certainly a bummer...

I agree with this...December is usually when you get some good cold in the east in a La Nina. If the exact same progs are on the models 2-3 weeks from now, then that would be very worrisome.

I think we will see a shift though. It could be a tad longer than we think (maybe Dec 20-25 as opposed to Dec 10-15) as that seems to happen in these stable horrific patterns, but eventually I do see a flip. Hopefully its by Dec 10 though. There's some decent analog support for a flip and also some of the underlying longer term indices do seem to want to support blocking at some point. So I think it will happen.

For DCA/BWI, having it happen in late Dec and lasting through January might be the most optimal result, so I do not think there is much to worry about there for a while. The MJO has been pretty active so far this autumn, so perhaps that bodes well for your region as it can overwhelm the typical La Nina -PNA pattern and give you guys some nice +PNA ridges if it can get into phases 7/8/1 which is what we want for DCA snow in La Nina trying to make up for the lack of a STJ as we discussed earlier this month.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes...I think most of us are fine with a bad pattern with transient cold shots here and there until we hit more favorable climo.....Knowing what we know now, could this have been foreseen?

I'm not sure...it was a neutral winter and was at the mercy of a lot of factors that conspired against us. Many of them which could have changed at some point in the winter, but just didn't.

I think if we had been monitoring the MJO as well as we do now (and also model skill does better with this now)...then the calls for frigid cold around the corner would have been tempered a bit.

Back then we often relied on the obscenely cold-bias GEFS...more so cold bias than even now. We didn't have the Euro ensembles or the weeklies to help us out along with some other stuff that seems to have at least some degree of skill in the 2-3 week range.

[WVclimo]

I'm not sure...it was a neutral winter and was at the mercy of a lot of factors that conspired against us. Many of them which could have changed at some point in the winter, but just didn't.

I think if we had been monitoring the MJO as well as we do now (and also model skill does better with this now)...then the calls for frigid cold around the corner would have been tempered a bit.

Back then we often relied on the obscenely cold-bias GEFS...more so cold bias than even now. We didn't have the Euro ensembles or the weeklies to help us out along with some other stuff that seems to have at least some degree of skill in the 2-3 week range.

Dr. Ed Berry was working at the DDC FO that winter. I read his long range discussions every week and it was relentless drudgery. Zonal flow and, for his office, constantly trying to find some hint of moisture in the LR. He was all over the pattern that season, and never bought into the idea of vodka imports and the "cold coming in just a couple of weeks" stuff.

Pretty sure he was using the MJO and SOI masterfully at that time.

[mitchnick]

models continue to advertise precip from a developing system after the frontal passage tomorrow and then the 6Z GFS shows a similar system at 180 hrs

my point is not that we will see snow from these storms, but that this winter may feature as our bigger snow events these rain to snow scenarios thanks to the stubborn SE ridge

call it a hunch

[WxUSAF]

models continue to advertise precip from a developing system after the frontal passage tomorrow and then the 6Z GFS shows a similar system at 180 hrs

my point is not that we will see snow from these storms, but that this winter may feature as our bigger snow events these rain to snow scenarios thanks to the stubborn SE ridge

call it a hunch

I was shocked to see WBAL have a chance of flurries in their forecast for tomorrow morning. I didn't hear Tony Pann talk about it, just saw it on their graphics.

[mappy]

I was shocked to see WBAL have a chance of flurries in their forecast for tomorrow morning. I didn't hear Tony Pann talk about it, just saw it on their graphics.

He mentioned it this morning briefly, just said if there was enough precip around and temps got cold enough we could see snow mix with rain early tomorrow morning

[usedtobe]

Dr. Ed Berry was working at the DDC FO that winter. I read his long range discussions every week and it was relentless drudgery. Zonal flow and, for his office, constantly trying to find some hint of moisture in the LR. He was all over the pattern that season, and never bought into the idea of vodka imports and the "cold coming in just a couple of weeks" stuff.

Pretty sure he was using the MJO and SOI masterfully at that time.

He was also using the global wind oscillation which essentially uses the GLAAM in the forecast which ends up often being in sinc with the MJO.

[brad1551]

Both Wes and I suggested in the other thread that we may not get a good PAC until Dec 10-15.....which is fine....I don't know why 40S wants to waste good patterns when climo chances of snow are so low....but yeah....in a Nina I do get kind of nervous around mid December if there is no real sign of hope as Feb climo leans so bad here....I don't think I do better than 14-16" IMBY so I am not that concerned about November or early DEC.....But if we see this pattern in a month it is certainly a bummer...

[brad1551]

Everything that I have read on this post is making me nervous as well. To many mild shots coming and not enough cold ones on the way. La Nina usually starts off with a bang in December. I know it is still early, but what a bad way to start . Thank you for the good information.

[BethesdaWX]

Everything that I have read on this post is making me nervous as well. To many mild shots coming and not enough cold ones on the way. La Nina usually starts off with a bang in December. I know it is still early, but what a bad way to start . Thank you for the good information.

Usually, but not in all cases. The cold vortex in alaska usually isn't a quick come and go pattern, but it'll break. We begin in late December, trust me and hold me to it

I do have reasoning for that prediction but it isn't something I should mention on a wxboard.

[Bob Chill]

Everything that I have read on this post is making me nervous as well. To many mild shots coming and not enough cold ones on the way. La Nina usually starts off with a bang in December. I know it is still early, but what a bad way to start . Thank you for the good information.

If anything, seeing this stable crappy pattern is a good thing considering that it's Nov. Things like this happening say in mid december can cost us half our winter. So, this is not a bad way to start. What if we had a +pna and -nao/ao right now? A bunch of cold rain and then it flips going into Dec. Ugh.

It way too early to jump to conclusions and say that this pattern is going to hold serve during the heart of our short snow season.

[Jebman]

One thing I have noticed so far this low sun season

Weather, that is temperatures, are highly VARIABLE

What this means for us in N VA, Washington DC - Is that we may see accumulating snows but that they will not be lasting.

variable up/down temperature pattern will be rule this winter - particularly for southern Mid At where I reside.

I guess I don't mind - I am spending most of my time on Battle Pirates fighting the KOS and Oblivion Alliances in Sector 105.

[Riptide]

One thing I have noticed so far this low sun season

Weather, that is temperatures, are highly VARIABLE

What this means for us in N VA, Washington DC - Is that we may see accumulating snows but that they will not be lasting.

variable up/down temperature pattern will be rule this winter - particularly for southern Mid At where I reside.

I guess I don't mind - I am spending most of my time on Battle Pirates fighting the KOS and Oblivion Alliances in Sector 105.

Great minds think alike.

[Yeoman]

Usually, but not in all cases. The cold vortex in alaska usually isn't a quick come and go pattern, but it'll break. We begin in late December, trust me and hold me to it

I do have reasoning for that prediction but it isn't something I should mention on a wxboard.

So we should go to the Wiggles board for that reasoning?

[phils1]

Detailed video discussion on the very latest La Nina conditions at spam.com with a specific reference to “east-based” vs. “west-based” and why “east-based” and“weak-to-moderate” are still the favored La Nina scenarios.

[Bob Chill]

The AO is not our friend right now. After looking at this chart, it's interesting to see that it had been neutral or positive since the end of August.

I pulled all the years since 1950 with neutral and positive AO's during Sept-Nov and came up with this:

1953*

1961*

1967

1971

1975

1989

2005

53 and 61 aren't the best because they both had a neg neutral month during Sept-Nov.

1971 is by far the best match because the AO was negative or neg neutral the preceeding winter and is coming off the heels of an extended -AO streak of winters. 2005 is the second best match.

Another thing that makes 71-72 stand out is that is was a second year Nina. I know many here already know how this is going to look but for those who don't, here is our beloved winter of 71-72's temps:

I'm abosultely not saying that I believe we are going to have a 71-72 redux because there are other parts of the pattern that don't fit. However, it's hard to discount the year because ENSO and the AO are a pretty good statistical match.

[Bob Chill]

71-72 has been a popular analog in the last 10 years...I have seen it a lot but it never really materializes with a hot December/January and a cold snowy February....we might have some insight soon as that December was an absolute torch...

Holy cow! I just looked at the Dec temp anoms for 71. +10!

There was one heck of a strong se ridge during that month too. I checked out height anoms and it was a major -pna with big trough in the west.

Kinda hard to see that happening again. The crappy pac we have now would have to hold serve and become even crappier for Dec.

[BethesdaWX]

The AO is not our friend right now. After looking at this chart, it's interesting to see that it had been neutral or positive since the end of August.

I pulled all the years since 1950 with neutral and positive AO's during Sept-Nov and came up with this:

1953*

1961*

1967

1971

1975

1989

2005

53 and 61 aren't the best because they both had a neg neutral month during Sept-Nov.

1971 is by far the best match because the AO was negative or neg neutral the preceeding winter and is coming off the heels of an extended -AO streak of winters. 2005 is the second best match.

Another thing that makes 71-72 stand out is that is was a second year Nina. I know many here already know how this is going to look but for those who don't, here is our beloved winter of 71-72's temps:

I'm abosultely not saying that I believe we are going to have a 71-72 redux because there are other parts of the pattern that don't fit. However, it's hard to discount the year because ENSO and the AO are a pretty good statistical match.

I'm no pro met, but now I really think it's 1967/68 for the win here, we torched in December then as well. When I look at the similarities, it's quite amazing actually, cool in the SE for the fall, -PDO and 2nd year La Nina, QBO negative in the upper levels while remaining positive at the lower levels, weak Sun, only difference was the AMO phase.

My untrained eyes can't see anything of note happening here until at least Xmas, my opinion isn't worth shat though.

[BethesdaWX]

Oh of course RE analog range and the SE ridge, a bad idea to get too specific and lose sample size, I weight your opinion more heavily than mine to be honest. Hoping I bust Having not lived in 1967/68 I can only invision what the global longwave pattern may have looked like on satellite (is what I use daily to attempt an understanding).

BTW My brother sent me something amazing, a perfect between the geomag Sun & ENSO w/ 6yr lag, and DC winters, I'm thinking of starting a thread on it, totally gave me the chills because it worked every fookin time. If it works out, we're going to have some butt kicking winters in the middle of this decade.

[usedtobe]

I think it is a bad idea to focus on any one analog....They need to be used more broadly I think......my guess and it is a guess is that December is colder across the mid-Atlantic and southeast than 1967 and that Nina is more of a factor in Jan/Feb than in 1967.....I don't expect we will see negative height anomalies in the south when this winter is all said and done....ground truth and snow are different stories, but as far as the Conus, I think this winter will show the effects of Nina more than that winter....more SE ridge....more -PDO/PNA

Most of my longer posts got moved to the gneral forecast forum but I still don't see much happening until after the 1st or even more likely, second week of dec. I strongly agree with your statement about analogs. Thos who bank strongly on one, or only a few years have a good chance of busting as there is a certain amount of randomness, organized chaos associated with pattern and when they change. That's why no single factor or correlation has proven to be that great a forecast tool in the longer ranges and why forecasters tend to rely so heavily on the enso state. I'm with you about the southeast ridge being a bigger factor this year than in 1967. Right now, the rpna and have the southeast ridge showing up during la nina years.

[Bob Chill]

I think it is a bad idea to focus on any one analog....They need to be used more broadly I think......

Absolutely. I used to think differently before I started reading these boards 5 years ago. Earth's climate is so insanely complex. The chances of having 2 years having the exact same pattern setup is so small regardless of what the major indices are saying. Devil is always in the details.

I do enjoy breaking out certain pieces of the puzzle and looking for statistical similarities though. Especially the ENSO/NAO/AO stuff and most recently the PDO. I'm still trying to understand epo, mjo, glaam, etc.

I give the mets on this board major kudos for the lr analysis they post. Just excellent stuff to read on a regular basis.

[mitchnick]

all I can say is, many of the expectations on the Board were sent into a tizzy with the OCT storm

I cannot recall a NOV pattern, especially one that started at the beginning of the month, that lasted through the winter

89/90 it got real cold in NOV and then the winter went to he!!, literally as far as temps were concerned, right after Christmas

I'm tempted to say that if DEC comes in warm, then we may bust, but I think back to 89/90 when the rubber band broke and it got hot

I believe we will still do normal to AN snow at BWI as of the first day of Spring, but with the typical NINA variability of warm shots (if nothing else, NOV's pattern has made it quite clear that the Alaskan vortex and SE Ridge will make their presence known to us)

I also believe, come MAR, we will be pulling up a lot of NOV posts from anyone who is panicking now

[Bob Chill]

I think the only reason expectations might be a little too high is because this Nina is weaker and we had quite a bit of blocking last year. It almost like we expect the nao and ao to go negative again for a good portion of the winter. That's probably the risky part.

I "think" we should do ok because the ao/nao "should" be favorable for a good stretch or couple of stretches but I have my doubts too. With that being said, my wag would be that this winter will be warmer than last but we'll have more snow but what the heck do I know.