2011 Winter Banter Thread

[Deck Pic]

the best sign for DC so far this fall has been the extremely active storm pattern... while it is quite possible the STJ dies a cold and dry death during the winter, I think early signs are indicating that it may have bouts of activeness atypical for a Nina. I thought PHL would be the dividing line as is typical of recent winters besides 09-10, but that may not be the case...

I still feel way better being up here, but I think DC will certainly be cold at the very least from Dec-Jan and you can't have snow without cold... I could see a winter of several 1-3" events for DC as well as one significant storm that drops 4-6" at DCA and 10-14" at IAD...

I think this is the only part of your post I agree with and only partially

[Bob Chill]

the best sign for DC so far this fall has been the extremely active storm pattern... while it is quite possible the STJ dies a cold and dry death during the winter, I think early signs are indicating that it may have bouts of activeness atypical for a Nina. I thought PHL would be the dividing line as is typical of recent winters besides 09-10, but that may not be the case...

Ninas feature a split flow of the northern jet with little to no STJ interaction. I think the northern stream will remain active but stormtrack will make the diff between white and wet. This weekend's storm was just about as perfect as you can get with a 500mb ns vort tracking just right to bomb off the coast. Last year's 500mb vort on steroids in another example of how the MA can cash in. Even though last year was a bit heartbreaking for us in dc metro it was a bunch of really close calls. Easily could have worked out differently. The -NAO isn't always a good thing either. If it's too strong it will supress everything and the SE and far southern VA get hit pretty good while we shiver under blue skies.

09-10 had true stj interaction (classic nino). The vorts we're tracking across the desert sw and tapping the gulf as they passed by before going up the coast as miller a's.

We got close to getting couple good phasers last year but iirc both vorts were riding split flow of the polar jet and the stj was nowhere to be seen.

[BethesdaWX]

I think it depends on the NAO state and where the gradient sets up as a result. Usually miller b's are a pain in the ass, and La Nina will always favor the early phasing of the Pacific and Polar streams that would lead to lake cutters unless there is a healthy block in place.

I think if a decent -NAO block can get going in tandem with a -PNA which is likely deeper in the winter, we may see a supressed SE ridge rather than a non-existant SE ridge (Supressed SE ridge is better than no SE ridge with a -NAO), then perhaps the gradient that has often set up in SNE may set up south for a time. That is the type of pattern that can really work for us in a La Nina though it is uncommon, but this would be the winter for it. A -PNA and -NAO/-AO resulting in a brief period of southern sliders tracking off the VA coast. That could be what happened in 1898-99 though I don't know enough about that winter to say it with any confidence, but it was a La Nina. ]

Also I feel the prospects for a bad ice storm this winter are worrisome, I'm trimming my trees next week somethings telling me I need to.

[mitchnick]

Ninas feature a split flow of the northern jet with little to no STJ interaction. I think the northern stream will remain active but stormtrack will make the diff between white and wet. This weekend's storm was just about as perfect as you can get with a 500mb ns vort tracking just right to bomb off the coast. Last year's 500mb vort on steroids in another example of how the MA can cash in. Even though last year was a bit heartbreaking for us in dc metro it was a bunch of really close calls. Easily could have worked out differently. The -NAO isn't always a good thing either. If it's too strong it will supress everything and the SE and far southern VA get hit pretty good while we shiver under blue skies.

09-10 had true stj interaction (classic nino). The vorts we're tracking across the desert sw and tapping the gulf as they passed by before going up the coast as miller a's.

We got close to getting couple good phasers last year but iirc both vorts were riding split flow of the polar jet and the stj was nowhere to be seen.

well, it was supposed to be perfect, that's how we were going to get accumulating snows

it ended up shifting north and it killed decent accumulating snows advertised 48+ hours out

I remain confident

[mitchnick]

It'll be interesting to look at that one month from now. Predicting it to fall off the table.

What did that same graph look like one month ago? Did they predict that steady period as shown by the chart?

top graph is from the 1st 10 days in October (this year) and the bottom one is the first 10 days in SEPT

CFS has definitely backed off the very strong NINA scenario, cutting anomalies from -3C to -1.5C

I expect further warming of its forecasts

[Bob Chill]

I'm not buying the CFS. I like looking at the 3 month averages instead of the monthlies for data. I may be wrong in thinking this, but enso is a seasonal effect moreso than affecting a specific month so I prefer to look at 3 month averages for analogs.

I use this data: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

There is pretty much no 3 month period that averages more than -2.0. Looking at the CFS would mean an overall moderate to even strong Nina is on tap. I just don't see how that is possible. Last year averaged out at -1.4 or so and I just don't see how this year comes out any stronger. I would guess that somewhere in the -.9 to -1.3 would be reasonable.

[Deck Pic]

Nina is kind of stagnating...I wouldn't say it is wimpy, but I think we can for the most part dismiss the idea of 1999-2000, 2007-08, 2010-11 in terms of strength.....I really have no idea if it will kind of languish over the next 1-2 months or strengthen a bit, though I'd lean toward the latter.....It is real though and a factor....If this were a 1st year nIna I might be a bit more jazzed with the easterly QBO and blocking expectations, but it will be a factor, even though it probably peaks weak in the tri-monthlies...

[Bob Chill]

I swear my memory is starting to get worse every year. It sucks getting old. IIRC- the cold anomolies off the coast of NS and PEI and warm anomolies surround Greenland during Sept-Nov points towards a favorable blockng -nao during DJF. I swear I read something about this last year.

The SST map above does have this signature.

Edit: I found the sst anom map that I saved from eastern. The following winters all featured a pretty good NAO.

The map zwts posted is just a current map so I'm not sure how the Sept - Nov will shap up this year. However, the atlantic looks really similar in zwts' map to the analog map.

[Deck Pic]

I swear my memory is starting to get worse every year. It sucks getting old. IIRC- the cold anomolies off the coast of NS and PEI and warm anomolies surround Greenland during Sept-Nov points towards a favorable blockng -nao during DJF. I swear I read something about this last year.

The SST map above does have this signature.

Edit: I found the sst anom map that I saved from eastern. The following winters all featured a pretty good NAO.

The map zwts posted is just a current map so I'm not sure how the Sept - Nov will shap up this year. However, the atlantic looks really similar in zwts' map to the analog map.

yes..I think the SST signature in the Atlantic is favorable for high pressure over Greenland and low pressure near Newfoundland...too bad the PAC is an epic disaster...

[ORH_wxman]

yes..I think the SST signature in the Atlantic is favorable for high pressure over Greenland and low pressure near Newfoundland...too bad the PAC is an epic disaster...

My guess is the Nina peaks at low end moderate. So yeah, I'd agree that we just about discount a '99'-'00, '07-'08, and '10-'11 strength.

The PAC looks to remain a huge disaster for at least another two weeks IMHO...perhaps a bit longer. The ugly vortex in AK is part of a fairly stable global pattern at the moment and will likely need the help from some stronger factor like a robust MJO wave...unfortunately, we have a robust MJO wave, but it will be going through phases that actually support the AK vortex through early December...its after that when we will likely see our chance to shuffle out this garbage in the PAC.

The ensembles def want to try and build a -NAO in the long range around the final week of Nov and into the 1st week of Dec...so if we can get some cold air into Canada then the -NAO can be taken advantage of...but before that happens, it will probably be like a Dec 1996 or Dec 2001 -NAO...pretty much useless.

[midatlanticweather]

yes..I think the SST signature in the Atlantic is favorable for high pressure over Greenland and low pressure near Newfoundland...too bad the PAC is an epic disaster...

That cold pool off the NW US is AWFUL. It looks familiar too! I know I saw that in a not too distant sucky winter! Pacific Jet never relaxed that year. Is that what is being referred to?

[Deck Pic]

That cold pool off the NW US is AWFUL. It looks familiar too! I know I saw that in a not too distant sucky winter! Pacific Jet never relaxed that year. Is that what is being referred to?

we were talking about the Atlantic...The Pacific is vile

[Deck Pic]

My guess is the Nina peaks at low end moderate. So yeah, I'd agree that we just about discount a '99'-'00, '07-'08, and '10-'11 strength.

The PAC looks to remain a huge disaster for at least another two weeks IMHO...perhaps a bit longer. The ugly vortex in AK is part of a fairly stable global pattern at the moment and will likely need the help from some stronger factor like a robust MJO wave...unfortunately, we have a robust MJO wave, but it will be going through phases that actually support the AK vortex through early December...its after that when we will likely see our chance to shuffle out this garbage in the PAC.

The ensembles def want to try and build a -NAO in the long range around the final week of Nov and into the 1st week of Dec...so if we can get some cold air into Canada then the -NAO can be taken advantage of...but before that happens, it will probably be like a Dec 1996 or Dec 2001 -NAO...pretty much useless.

Both Wes and I suggested in the other thread that we may not get a good PAC until Dec 10-15.....which is fine....I don't know why 40S wants to waste good patterns when climo chances of snow are so low....but yeah....in a Nina I do get kind of nervous around mid December if there is no real sign of hope as Feb climo leans so bad here....I don't think I do better than 14-16" IMBY so I am not that concerned about November or early DEC.....But if we see this pattern in a month it is certainly a bummer...

[ORH_wxman]

Both Wes and I suggested in the other thread that we may not get a good PAC until Dec 10-15.....which is fine....I don't know why 40S wants to waste good patterns when climo chances of snow are so low....but yeah....in a Nina I do get kind of nervous around mid December if there is no real sign of hope as Feb climo leans so bad here....I don't think I do better than 14-16" IMBY so I am not that concerned about November or early DEC.....But if we see this pattern in a month it is certainly a bummer...

I agree with this...December is usually when you get some good cold in the east in a La Nina. If the exact same progs are on the models 2-3 weeks from now, then that would be very worrisome.

I think we will see a shift though. It could be a tad longer than we think (maybe Dec 20-25 as opposed to Dec 10-15) as that seems to happen in these stable horrific patterns, but eventually I do see a flip. Hopefully its by Dec 10 though. There's some decent analog support for a flip and also some of the underlying longer term indices do seem to want to support blocking at some point. So I think it will happen.

For DCA/BWI, having it happen in late Dec and lasting through January might be the most optimal result, so I do not think there is much to worry about there for a while. The MJO has been pretty active so far this autumn, so perhaps that bodes well for your region as it can overwhelm the typical La Nina -PNA pattern and give you guys some nice +PNA ridges if it can get into phases 7/8/1 which is what we want for DCA snow in La Nina trying to make up for the lack of a STJ as we discussed earlier this month.

[Deck Pic]

I agree with this...December is usually when you get some good cold in the east in a La Nina. If the exact same progs are on the models 2-3 weeks from now, then that would be very worrisome.

I think we will see a shift though. It could be a tad longer than we think (maybe Dec 20-25 as opposed to Dec 10-15) as that seems to happen in these stable horrific patterns, but eventually I do see a flip. Hopefully its by Dec 10 though. There's some decent analog support for a flip and also some of the underlying longer term indices do seem to want to support blocking at some point. So I think it will happen.

For DCA/BWI, having it happen in late Dec and lasting through January might be the most optimal result, so I do not think there is much to worry about there for a while. The MJO has been pretty active so far this autumn, so perhaps that bodes well for your region as it can overwhelm the typical La Nina -PNA pattern and give you guys some nice +PNA ridges if it can get into phases 7/8/1 which is what we want for DCA snow in La Nina trying to make up for the lack of a STJ as we discussed earlier this month.

Yes...I think most of us are fine with a bad pattern with transient cold shots here and there until we hit more favorable climo.....Knowing what we know now, could this have been foreseen?

[ORH_wxman]

Yes...I think most of us are fine with a bad pattern with transient cold shots here and there until we hit more favorable climo.....Knowing what we know now, could this have been foreseen?

I'm not sure...it was a neutral winter and was at the mercy of a lot of factors that conspired against us. Many of them which could have changed at some point in the winter, but just didn't.

I think if we had been monitoring the MJO as well as we do now (and also model skill does better with this now)...then the calls for frigid cold around the corner would have been tempered a bit.

Back then we often relied on the obscenely cold-bias GEFS...more so cold bias than even now. We didn't have the Euro ensembles or the weeklies to help us out along with some other stuff that seems to have at least some degree of skill in the 2-3 week range.

[WVclimo]

I'm not sure...it was a neutral winter and was at the mercy of a lot of factors that conspired against us. Many of them which could have changed at some point in the winter, but just didn't.

I think if we had been monitoring the MJO as well as we do now (and also model skill does better with this now)...then the calls for frigid cold around the corner would have been tempered a bit.

Back then we often relied on the obscenely cold-bias GEFS...more so cold bias than even now. We didn't have the Euro ensembles or the weeklies to help us out along with some other stuff that seems to have at least some degree of skill in the 2-3 week range.

Dr. Ed Berry was working at the DDC FO that winter. I read his long range discussions every week and it was relentless drudgery. Zonal flow and, for his office, constantly trying to find some hint of moisture in the LR. He was all over the pattern that season, and never bought into the idea of vodka imports and the "cold coming in just a couple of weeks" stuff.

Pretty sure he was using the MJO and SOI masterfully at that time.

[mitchnick]

models continue to advertise precip from a developing system after the frontal passage tomorrow and then the 6Z GFS shows a similar system at 180 hrs

my point is not that we will see snow from these storms, but that this winter may feature as our bigger snow events these rain to snow scenarios thanks to the stubborn SE ridge

call it a hunch

[WxUSAF]

models continue to advertise precip from a developing system after the frontal passage tomorrow and then the 6Z GFS shows a similar system at 180 hrs

my point is not that we will see snow from these storms, but that this winter may feature as our bigger snow events these rain to snow scenarios thanks to the stubborn SE ridge

call it a hunch

I was shocked to see WBAL have a chance of flurries in their forecast for tomorrow morning. I didn't hear Tony Pann talk about it, just saw it on their graphics.

[mappy]

I was shocked to see WBAL have a chance of flurries in their forecast for tomorrow morning. I didn't hear Tony Pann talk about it, just saw it on their graphics.

He mentioned it this morning briefly, just said if there was enough precip around and temps got cold enough we could see snow mix with rain early tomorrow morning

[usedtobe]

Dr. Ed Berry was working at the DDC FO that winter. I read his long range discussions every week and it was relentless drudgery. Zonal flow and, for his office, constantly trying to find some hint of moisture in the LR. He was all over the pattern that season, and never bought into the idea of vodka imports and the "cold coming in just a couple of weeks" stuff.

Pretty sure he was using the MJO and SOI masterfully at that time.

He was also using the global wind oscillation which essentially uses the GLAAM in the forecast which ends up often being in sinc with the MJO.

[brad1551]

Both Wes and I suggested in the other thread that we may not get a good PAC until Dec 10-15.....which is fine....I don't know why 40S wants to waste good patterns when climo chances of snow are so low....but yeah....in a Nina I do get kind of nervous around mid December if there is no real sign of hope as Feb climo leans so bad here....I don't think I do better than 14-16" IMBY so I am not that concerned about November or early DEC.....But if we see this pattern in a month it is certainly a bummer...

[brad1551]

Everything that I have read on this post is making me nervous as well. To many mild shots coming and not enough cold ones on the way. La Nina usually starts off with a bang in December. I know it is still early, but what a bad way to start . Thank you for the good information.

[BethesdaWX]

Everything that I have read on this post is making me nervous as well. To many mild shots coming and not enough cold ones on the way. La Nina usually starts off with a bang in December. I know it is still early, but what a bad way to start . Thank you for the good information.

Usually, but not in all cases. The cold vortex in alaska usually isn't a quick come and go pattern, but it'll break. We begin in late December, trust me and hold me to it

I do have reasoning for that prediction but it isn't something I should mention on a wxboard.

[Bob Chill]

Everything that I have read on this post is making me nervous as well. To many mild shots coming and not enough cold ones on the way. La Nina usually starts off with a bang in December. I know it is still early, but what a bad way to start . Thank you for the good information.

If anything, seeing this stable crappy pattern is a good thing considering that it's Nov. Things like this happening say in mid december can cost us half our winter. So, this is not a bad way to start. What if we had a +pna and -nao/ao right now? A bunch of cold rain and then it flips going into Dec. Ugh.

It way too early to jump to conclusions and say that this pattern is going to hold serve during the heart of our short snow season.

[Jebman]

One thing I have noticed so far this low sun season

Weather, that is temperatures, are highly VARIABLE

What this means for us in N VA, Washington DC - Is that we may see accumulating snows but that they will not be lasting.

variable up/down temperature pattern will be rule this winter - particularly for southern Mid At where I reside.

I guess I don't mind - I am spending most of my time on Battle Pirates fighting the KOS and Oblivion Alliances in Sector 105.

[Riptide]

One thing I have noticed so far this low sun season

Weather, that is temperatures, are highly VARIABLE

What this means for us in N VA, Washington DC - Is that we may see accumulating snows but that they will not be lasting.

variable up/down temperature pattern will be rule this winter - particularly for southern Mid At where I reside.

I guess I don't mind - I am spending most of my time on Battle Pirates fighting the KOS and Oblivion Alliances in Sector 105.

Great minds think alike.

[Yeoman]

Usually, but not in all cases. The cold vortex in alaska usually isn't a quick come and go pattern, but it'll break. We begin in late December, trust me and hold me to it

I do have reasoning for that prediction but it isn't something I should mention on a wxboard.

So we should go to the Wiggles board for that reasoning?

[phils1]

Detailed video discussion on the very latest La Nina conditions at spam.com with a specific reference to “east-based” vs. “west-based” and why “east-based” and“weak-to-moderate” are still the favored La Nina scenarios.

[Bob Chill]

The AO is not our friend right now. After looking at this chart, it's interesting to see that it had been neutral or positive since the end of August.

I pulled all the years since 1950 with neutral and positive AO's during Sept-Nov and came up with this:

1953*

1961*

1967

1971

1975

1989

2005

53 and 61 aren't the best because they both had a neg neutral month during Sept-Nov.

1971 is by far the best match because the AO was negative or neg neutral the preceeding winter and is coming off the heels of an extended -AO streak of winters. 2005 is the second best match.

Another thing that makes 71-72 stand out is that is was a second year Nina. I know many here already know how this is going to look but for those who don't, here is our beloved winter of 71-72's temps:

I'm abosultely not saying that I believe we are going to have a 71-72 redux because there are other parts of the pattern that don't fit. However, it's hard to discount the year because ENSO and the AO are a pretty good statistical match.