#NoPoles Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 SNOOOOOOOOOOOOW i like your sig, you should change rain to snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 i like your sig, you should change rain to snow!!! Maybe once it is officially winter, I will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 RRRRRRAAAAAAAIIIIINNNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 RRRRRRAAAAAAAIIIIINNNNN Welcome to january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 RRRRRRAAAAAAAIIIIINNNNN Welcome to january LOOOOOOZZZEEERRRRZZZZZZZ LOLZ!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 So it is now snowing in DC.......with sleet and rain in Frederick . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 So it is now snowing in DC.......with sleet and rain in Frederick . We had like 12 flakes I wouldn't call it snow yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We had like 12 flakes I wouldn't call it snow yet Looks like the CWG forecast is working out OK except for in Frederick or were we overdone a little. I can't tell from all the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 [weenie rant] dang it!!![/weenie rant] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 So it's okay to ask Weenie questions in here, right? Just wondering if there are any threats on the 300+ hour models :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 So it's okay to ask Weenie questions in here, right? Just wondering if there are any threats on the 300+ hour models :-) Yes you can ask weenie questions in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Yes you can ask weenie questions in here This early storm is the worst thing that could have happened to me, now my expectations for this winter are sky high. I'm Ji jr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I'm seeing talk of a nice warm up through the early part of November. Is this at least partially because of a flip of the AO/NAO to positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I'm seeing talk of a nice warm up through the early part of November. Is this at least partially because of a flip of the AO/NAO to positive? Hopefully it doesn't warm up were talking November. Save that stuff for June and July. Bring on the Cold!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Hopefully it doesn't warm up were talking November. Save that stuff for June and July. Bring on the Cold!!! Give me a warm, dry November and I'd be a happy, happy camper. The cold can wait until it's supposed to be cold around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 models continue to advertise closed lows moving across the area I sure hope this remains a characteristic for the upcoming winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 one other thing, this came out 11 days ago ENSO forecast average of the statistical and dynamic forecast models is for a "weak" NINA at -.6C and -.7C respectively http://iri.columbia..../SST_table.html that's good news for us folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 one other thing, this came out 11 days ago ENSO forecast average of the statistical and dynamic forecast models is for a "weak" NINA at -.6C and -.7C respectively http://iri.columbia..../SST_table.html that's good news for us folks I 'll give it to the CFS for sticking to its guns for a Nina this winter, but the magnitude forecasts have been LOL-worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I 'll give it to the CFS for sticking to its guns for a Nina this winter, but the magnitude forecasts have been LOL-worthy. CFS seems to get the direction right (NINA or NINO) but always goes to cold for a NINA and too warm for a NINA. That link I provided of all the models shows how out of whack it is to all the other models. Most here refer to 95/96 as a weak NINA but forget that the NINA did get down to .7C for 4 months of the ONI index.......ummm, that's right in line with the average of all the models in the OCT update http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Ch 4 Ch 7 Seems that channel 7 was the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 one other thing, this came out 11 days ago ENSO forecast average of the statistical and dynamic forecast models is for a "weak" NINA at -.6C and -.7C respectively http://iri.columbia..../SST_table.html that's good news for us folks Yes it is. I've been watching this too. 3 month averages last winter were pretty much in the 1.2 - 1.4 range. Anything sub 1 is good for us. There are some really good analogs (good meaning good for weenies. not necessarily good for statistical matching) in the 60's that keep catching my eye. Some of the other indexes like pdo and nao/ao are quite similar to the 60's. Just for giggles, if you look at enso for 62-63 and 67-68, both featured weak nina's (sub 1) over 3 month averages. Dec-Feb temp anoms look like this: If you drill down to monthly anoms it was cold in the east each month. The whole country was cold in Jan and then warm west cold east in Feb. One thing that caught my eye was the Nov temp anoms were much below average too while October was pretty much average. It's like winter came early and never left the East. Looking at the lr, the se rige is showing its face during the first half of Nov. Not saying I believe this is a problem because I don't know enough about this stuff. However, both 1962 and 1967 featured cold novembers. 67 was really cold. If the se rigde does hang out for a bit in Nov, it will be nice to see a return to cold before thanksgiving. If anything, the wet pattern is encouraging. Dry during the winter isn't really exciting regardless of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Yes it is. I've been watching this too. 3 month averages last winter were pretty much in the 1.2 - 1.4 range. Anything sub 1 is good for us. There are some really good analogs (good meaning good for weenies. not necessarily good for statistical matching) in the 60's that keep catching my eye. Some of the other indexes like pdo and nao/ao are quite similar to the 60's. Just for giggles, if you look at enso for 62-63 and 67-68, both featured weak nina's (sub 1) over 3 month averages. Dec-Feb temp anoms look like this: If you drill down to monthly anoms it was cold in the east each month. The whole country was cold in Jan and then warm west cold east in Feb. One thing that caught my eye was the Nov temp anoms were much below average too while October was pretty much average. It's like winter came early and never left the East. Looking at the lr, the se rige is showing its face during the first half of Nov. Not saying I believe this is a problem because I don't know enough about this stuff. However, both 1962 and 1967 featured cold novembers. 67 was really cold. If the se rigde does hang out for a bit in Nov, it will be nice to see a return to cold before thanksgiving. If anything, the wet pattern is encouraging. Dry during the winter isn't really exciting regardless of temps. 67/68 winter matched up with my east QBO years that matched this year and 62/63 missed it by only 1 month by dropping below 0 in May vs. June (using "my" criteria, so I would say it counts!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 67/68 winter matched up with my east QBO years that matched this year and 62/63 missed it by only 1 month by dropping below 0 in May vs. June (using "my" criteria, so I would say it counts!) That's pretty encouraging. I've been looking at the 60's ever since I read up on the PDO. I have a hard time with analogs pre 1930 so my datasets are always way too small in the grand scheme. If we do have extended periods of -nao/-ao this winter then we may match up well with what we saw in the 60's. This decade may end up being "old school". With the exception of a few great years, 1990 - 2008 was pretty lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I 'll give it to the CFS for sticking to its guns for a Nina this winter, but the magnitude forecasts have been LOL-worthy. It'll be interesting to look at that one month from now. Predicting it to fall off the table. What did that same graph look like one month ago? Did they predict that steady period as shown by the chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 It'll be interesting to look at that one month from now. Predicting it to fall off the table. What did that same graph look like one month ago? Did they predict that steady period as shown by the chart? It has shown that kind of sharp decline for several months now... don't put any stock into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 It'll be interesting to look at that one month from now. Predicting it to fall off the table. What did that same graph look like one month ago? Did they predict that steady period as shown by the chart? A post on the main board: Basically, we already know that the dropoff is a bust because that would be centered on Nov 1 and 3.4 is nowhere near that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 A post on the main board: http://www.americanw...post__p__976374 Basically, we already know that the dropoff is a bust because that would be centered on Nov 1 and 3.4 is nowhere near that level. 3.4 is around -0.8 and is the coldest region....I am not seeing a real strong Nina, though there are hangover effects from last winter I think...I'd be a lot more enthusiastic about winter if we were following a long warm/neutral period like 57-61 or 89-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 3.4 is around -0.8 and is the coldest region....I am not seeing a real strong Nina, though there are hangover effects from last winter I think...I'd be a lot more enthusiastic about winter if we were following a long warm/neutral period like 57-61 or 89-95 the best sign for DC so far this fall has been the extremely active storm pattern... while it is quite possible the STJ dies a cold and dry death during the winter, I think early signs are indicating that it may have bouts of activeness atypical for a Nina. I thought PHL would be the dividing line as is typical of recent winters besides 09-10, but that may not be the case... I still feel way better being up here, but I think DC will certainly be cold at the very least from Dec-Jan and you can't have snow without cold... I could see a winter of several 1-3" events for DC as well as one significant storm that drops 4-6" at DCA and 10-14" at IAD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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