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2011 Winter Banter Thread


yoda

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one other thing, this came out 11 days ago

ENSO forecast average of the statistical and dynamic forecast models is for a "weak" NINA at -.6C and -.7C respectively

http://iri.columbia..../SST_table.html

that's good news for us folks

I 'll give it to the CFS for sticking to its guns for a Nina this winter, but the magnitude forecasts have been LOL-worthy.

post-1746-0-72488200-1320063746.gif

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I 'll give it to the CFS for sticking to its guns for a Nina this winter, but the magnitude forecasts have been LOL-worthy.

post-1746-0-72488200-1320063746.gif

CFS seems to get the direction right (NINA or NINO) but always goes to cold for a NINA and too warm for a NINA. That link I provided of all the models shows how out of whack it is to all the other models. Most here refer to 95/96 as a weak NINA but forget that the NINA did get down to .7C for 4 months of the ONI index.......ummm, that's right in line with the average of all the models in the OCT update :unsure:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

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one other thing, this came out 11 days ago

ENSO forecast average of the statistical and dynamic forecast models is for a "weak" NINA at -.6C and -.7C respectively

http://iri.columbia..../SST_table.html

that's good news for us folks

Yes it is. I've been watching this too. 3 month averages last winter were pretty much in the 1.2 - 1.4 range. Anything sub 1 is good for us. There are some really good analogs (good meaning good for weenies. not necessarily good for statistical matching) in the 60's that keep catching my eye. Some of the other indexes like pdo and nao/ao are quite similar to the 60's.

Just for giggles, if you look at enso for 62-63 and 67-68, both featured weak nina's (sub 1) over 3 month averages. Dec-Feb temp anoms look like this:

If you drill down to monthly anoms it was cold in the east each month. The whole country was cold in Jan and then warm west cold east in Feb.

One thing that caught my eye was the Nov temp anoms were much below average too while October was pretty much average. It's like winter came early and never left the East.

Looking at the lr, the se rige is showing its face during the first half of Nov. Not saying I believe this is a problem because I don't know enough about this stuff. However, both 1962 and 1967 featured cold novembers. 67 was really cold.

If the se rigde does hang out for a bit in Nov, it will be nice to see a return to cold before thanksgiving.

If anything, the wet pattern is encouraging. Dry during the winter isn't really exciting regardless of temps.

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Yes it is. I've been watching this too. 3 month averages last winter were pretty much in the 1.2 - 1.4 range. Anything sub 1 is good for us. There are some really good analogs (good meaning good for weenies. not necessarily good for statistical matching) in the 60's that keep catching my eye. Some of the other indexes like pdo and nao/ao are quite similar to the 60's.

Just for giggles, if you look at enso for 62-63 and 67-68, both featured weak nina's (sub 1) over 3 month averages. Dec-Feb temp anoms look like this:

If you drill down to monthly anoms it was cold in the east each month. The whole country was cold in Jan and then warm west cold east in Feb.

One thing that caught my eye was the Nov temp anoms were much below average too while October was pretty much average. It's like winter came early and never left the East.

Looking at the lr, the se rige is showing its face during the first half of Nov. Not saying I believe this is a problem because I don't know enough about this stuff. However, both 1962 and 1967 featured cold novembers. 67 was really cold.

If the se rigde does hang out for a bit in Nov, it will be nice to see a return to cold before thanksgiving.

If anything, the wet pattern is encouraging. Dry during the winter isn't really exciting regardless of temps.

67/68 winter matched up with my east QBO years that matched this year and

62/63 missed it by only 1 month by dropping below 0 in May vs. June (using "my" criteria, so I would say it counts!)

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67/68 winter matched up with my east QBO years that matched this year and

62/63 missed it by only 1 month by dropping below 0 in May vs. June (using "my" criteria, so I would say it counts!)

That's pretty encouraging. I've been looking at the 60's ever since I read up on the PDO. I have a hard time with analogs pre 1930 so my datasets are always way too small in the grand scheme.

If we do have extended periods of -nao/-ao this winter then we may match up well with what we saw in the 60's. This decade may end up being "old school". With the exception of a few great years, 1990 - 2008 was pretty lame.

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I 'll give it to the CFS for sticking to its guns for a Nina this winter, but the magnitude forecasts have been LOL-worthy.

post-1746-0-72488200-1320063746.gif

It'll be interesting to look at that one month from now. Predicting it to fall off the table.

What did that same graph look like one month ago? Did they predict that steady period as shown by the chart?

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It'll be interesting to look at that one month from now. Predicting it to fall off the table.

What did that same graph look like one month ago? Did they predict that steady period as shown by the chart?

It has shown that kind of sharp decline for several months now... don't put any stock into it.

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It'll be interesting to look at that one month from now. Predicting it to fall off the table.

What did that same graph look like one month ago? Did they predict that steady period as shown by the chart?

A post on the main board:

Basically, we already know that the dropoff is a bust because that would be centered on Nov 1 and 3.4 is nowhere near that level.

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A post on the main board: http://www.americanw...post__p__976374

Basically, we already know that the dropoff is a bust because that would be centered on Nov 1 and 3.4 is nowhere near that level.

3.4 is around -0.8 and is the coldest region....I am not seeing a real strong Nina, though there are hangover effects from last winter I think...I'd be a lot more enthusiastic about winter if we were following a long warm/neutral period like 57-61 or 89-95

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3.4 is around -0.8 and is the coldest region....I am not seeing a real strong Nina, though there are hangover effects from last winter I think...I'd be a lot more enthusiastic about winter if we were following a long warm/neutral period like 57-61 or 89-95

the best sign for DC so far this fall has been the extremely active storm pattern... while it is quite possible the STJ dies a cold and dry death during the winter, I think early signs are indicating that it may have bouts of activeness atypical for a Nina. I thought PHL would be the dividing line as is typical of recent winters besides 09-10, but that may not be the case...

I still feel way better being up here, but I think DC will certainly be cold at the very least from Dec-Jan and you can't have snow without cold... I could see a winter of several 1-3" events for DC as well as one significant storm that drops 4-6" at DCA and 10-14" at IAD...

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