Fozz Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 http://en.wikipedia..../Splitting_maul It's basically an axe, dude. Thats what I call it. I don't call it a 'wood splitting maul'. For splitting wood, this tool is much better than a typical axe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 fyp How is this pseudoscience? PV weakens substantially, -NAO slowly develops as heigher heights flow into Greenland, - PNA relaxes, SSTA anomalies and upward motion config = yay. You should change your username back to relic sucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 How is this pseudoscience? You should change your username back to relic sucker. Zing! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 How are SSTAs/upward motion and the AO pseudoscience? Spit it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 If you think forecasting the AO + SSTAs influence on the wx pattern is 'pseudoscience', then you should take an atmospheric science course. dumba**. How many courses have YOU taken? Which one went into fairly detailed explanations about the behaviors of the AO, SSTs, etc. and how they get affected by the now-charmingly-dubbed GUM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 "Not much kinetic energy" is a new one to me for describing the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 How many courses have YOU taken? Which one went into fairly detailed explanations about the behaviors of the AO, SSTs, etc. and how they get affected by the now-charmingly-dubbed GUM? I'm a first year met student at UMD. Nothing I've posted in this forum has been 'fairly detailed'. I never once said 'upward motion impacts the AO', SSTAs = upward motion and potential upward motion, warm SSTAs are cooled in the convective process that often results from them being warm. It is a climactic feedback response that balances the thermal and kinetic portions of the total energy budget Convection = transfer from thermal energy ---> kinetic energy. Winds, Waves = Kinetic energy. Convection = Clouds = reflection of incoming SW flux (sunlight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 "Not much kinetic energy" is a new one to me for describing the pattern. Means lack of storminess, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Means lack of storminess, basically. I've still never heard anyone describe that for a pattern in all my years as a meteorologist. Bizarre choice of words I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I've still never heard anyone describe that for a pattern in all my years as a meteorologist. Bizarre choice of words I think. I'm wierd like that sometimes. I like to view the 'pattern' as distributions and processing of energy rather than what I feel are superficial terms used to describe the various processes. It seems like fluff to me, I'm sure some met students agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I'm a first year met student at UMD. Nothing I've posted in this forum has been 'fairly detailed'. I never once said 'upward motion impacts the AO', SSTAs = upward motion and potential upward motion, warm SSTAs are cooled in the convective process that often results from them being warm. It is a climactic feedback response that balances the thermal and kinetic portions of the total energy budget Convection = transfer from thermal energy ---> kinetic energy. Winds, Waves = Kinetic energy. Convection = Clouds = reflection of incoming SW flux (sunlight). I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I give up. Give up on what? You made a mistaken assertion, and I answered your question. What's wrong now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Lol Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Snow plows were sitting on the highway (i95 South between Harford and Baltimore counties) this morning at 5am. #SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 you (not you specifically) either want a cold pattern that supports snow or you don't....this idea of wanting warmth unless it snows basically means you care more about warm than snow...which is fine....but the "I want it warm except when it snows" attitude is for the ignorant general public....cold patterns increase snow chances exponentially...so true snow lovers want cold....This guy on CWG said his favorite winters are those that are predominantly warm but feature several periods when you get a couple big snow storms....And Camden agreed resoundingly.....when I asked them to name such a winter....crickets I don't consider us snow lovers to be delusional at all....I think we are well aware of what we are dealing with in DC in general and especially this winter....If we are going to be constantly "teased" for being snow weenies, then I think it is time to remind the warministas that it doesnt snow when it is warm out and this idea that it may as well be warm if it isnt going to snow, means you don't really care about snow..which is fine...not everyone likes snow and cold....most don't I love snow and everything that comes with it, cold weather too. There has to be one before the other so it stands to reason rationally that cold and snow love have to be simultaneous. There has been a sobering reality this winter, so far, that bad patterns will give zero legit chances and flukes are even harder to come by. Should we even have .6" given how poor the set ups have been? My joking around with the warm temps is kind of a therapy for me. I have not gotten as desperate and frustrated as some due to being held in check by Wes, Ian, HM, DonS stating over and over again how poor things are. Getting a warm period seems fitting before we get any real chance of a snow threat over 3" forecast. I know you weren't calling me out specifically. Trust me, I am still model/pattern watching constantly to first see where the magical 0 line is and where any storms are to work their way into it. I'm still hoping for climo snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Give up on what? You made a mistaken assertion, and I answered your question. What's wrong now? I give up on trying to fully understand where you're coming from with these unconventional terms. I mean, just look at this; Don't focus on the snowfall in an analog month because global upward motion can be vastly different due to different configuration of SSTA anomalies while the large scale synoptical pattern can be very similar, I believe the answer to DC snowfall lies in the configuration of the global upward motion state which is mostly a result of SSTA setup. What the hell are you looking at to compare "global upward motion," and why is such a signal so strong and indicative of a pattern change? If you're not completely BS-ing it, then you must be looking at some data... feel free to share it with us so we can try to see what you're seeing. You've been asked to post your complete thoughts and such more than once... why don't you enlighten us with the data that shows what you've been going on about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 We are all too dumb to understand the genius of BB. Let's not GUM things up and allow him to lead us to snowparadise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I feel stupid for reading the last two pages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 So obvious. Thanks. Your sig makes me giggle, nice job see folks, this is what good fun trolling is all about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I feel stupid for reading the last two pages We all became a little dumber after reading that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Your sig makes me giggle, nice job see folks, this is what good fun trolling is all about! There's so much in this thread that makes me laugh, and even a little that makes me feel a little glum. But I'm glad you got a chuckle from the new sig, and I'm looking forward to the rockin' February so you can get trolled mercilessly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 There's so much in this thread that makes me laugh, and even a little that makes me feel a little glum. But I'm glad you got a chuckle from the new sig, and I'm looking forward to the rockin' February so you can get trolled mercilessly! Why would I get trolled for a rocking Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Why would I get trolled for a rocking Feb? I was teasing, but regardless of your allegiance to snow, you've drawn a line in the sand that winter-lovers will not soon forget. The battle lines have been drawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I was teasing, but regardless of your allegiance to snow, you've drawn a line in the sand that winter-lovers will not soon forget. The battle lines have been drawn! okie dokie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 What the hell are you looking at to compare "global upward motion," and why is such a signal so strong and indicative of a pattern change? If you're not completely BS-ing it, then you must be looking at some data... feel free to share it with us so we can try to see what you're seeing. You've been asked to post your complete thoughts and such more than once... why don't you enlighten us with the data that shows what you've been going on about. Upward motion is convection, obviously. And you know what the MJO is, right? Geomagnetic activity has been low while the total solar flux increased dramatically from August into November. The +AO/cold vortex is basically atmospheric mass containing high levels of kinetic energy, and low levels of thermal energy, and it is at the poles/toward the poles where the greatest tropospheric/stratospheric interaction occurs. I believe ENSO is induced by the Geomagnetic Sun, the lag operates on a timescale of 6.5 years. I believe the mechanism operates as Sun --> AO/NAO ---> repositioning/change in cloud anomalies ---> change in heat distribution ---> change in the wind budget ---> ENSO. I believe the PDO and AMO are a property of the 22yr Hale Cycle, which manifests in the IMF [interplanetary magnetic field]. [it actually correlates well to DCA snowfall too but more on that later] So I take the lagged geomagnetic value+current ENSO and superimpose it on 1) current total solar flux, 2) the current wind budget, and the deviation I get between the values is over time is how I forecast the state of "change" in the system state. And I believe when the system state is in a period of "change" extreme AO/NAO variations will be prevolent. The QBO also correlates to the variations in the IMF, where weak QBO years seem to be frequent in years with weaker and/or changing IMF's. The IMF last flipped direction in 1999-00 to South, and it will flip back north at the end of this year which is when I feel significant change will result, signs of it in the upper stratospheric wind oscillations that have been stagnant over the past few years. Images for ENSO/Geomag Flux lagged 6.5 years. Can see most of the past decade+ in there too. 2009/10 El Nino wa forced by the Sun. Can also see the global cooling begins in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Why would I get trolled for a rocking Feb? Because you don't understand BB's Forecasting Upward Chaos with Kinetic Energy Diagram! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Upward motion is convection, obviously. And you know what the MJO is, right? Geomagnetic activity has been low while the total solar flux increased dramatically from August into November. The +AO/cold vortex is basically atmospheric mass containing high levels of kinetic energy, and low levels of thermal energy, and it is at the poles/toward the poles where the greatest tropospheric/stratospheric interaction occurs. I believe ENSO is induced by the Geomagnetic Sun, the lag operates on a timescale of 6.5 years. I believe the mechanism operates as Sun --> AO/NAO ---> repositioning/change in cloud anomalies ---> change in heat distribution ---> change in the wind budget ---> ENSO. I believe the PDO and AMO are a property of the 22yr Hale Cycle, which manifests in the IMF [interplanetary magnetic field]. [it actually correlates well to DCA snowfall too but more on that later] So I take the lagged geomagnetic value+current ENSO and superimpose it on 1) current total solar flux, 2) the current wind budget, and the deviation I get between the values is over time is how I forecast the state of "change" in the system state. And I believe when the system state is in a period of "change" extreme AO/NAO variations will be prevolent. The QBO also correlates to the variations in the IMF, where weak QBO years seem to be frequent in years with weaker and/or changing IMF's. The IMF last flipped direction in 1999-00 to South, and it will flip back north at the end of this year which is when I feel significant change will result, signs of it in the upper stratospheric wind oscillations that have been stagnant over the past few years. Images for ENSO/Geomag Flux lagged 6.5 years. Can see most of the past decade+ in there too. 2009/10 El Nino wa forced by the Sun. Can also see the global cooling begins in 2013. 1) Using your methods, explain why the MJO was active early in the season and has since weakened in amplitude. Also, you do mention GLOBAL upward motion, not just tropical upward motion. How significant is convection away from the equatorial region? 2) While initiating a -AO/-NAO regime may be more apparent using your methods, explain how the strong PV over Alaska and strong +EPO signal are supposed to degrade and allow for sustained cold to work into the eastern U.S. EDIT: Fixed wording in #1 to clarify what's being asked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 . And why can't I get obs to show on my sidebar? what is the station you put in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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