Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It's basically free money, dude. I made $4000 during 12/19/09 basically sitting in a pickup playing my iPod. If you could make your money back and then some in one day then everyone with the means to do so would have a plow. They don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 this winter keeps getting better, eh? Are you ok so far Jer without getting any or little snow? i mean a winter without snow is the worst thing ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 If you could make your money back and then some in one day then everyone with the means to do so would have a plow. He is taking the snowiest winter and thinking it is going to happen like that season again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 -5 here at the house, -15 at the bottom of the glen. I snapped a pic of the truck thermo at 7:30am, it doesn't show up that well but yeah, -15. Didn't realize until I hit the road. really hope you guys get some snow. No snow lover should have to endure a snowless winter. Best of luck. got it. confusing to say the least. a balmy 17 this morning imby...it is what it is, snow or no snow. relatively snowless but not completely; i can be at 3,800+ feet ASL in less than an hour if i just have to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 this winter keeps getting better, eh? It's just annoying. I can deal with my fellow mid atlantic posters whining about lack of snow, but ski marge posts just make me gag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 He is taking the snowiest winter and thinking it is going to happen like that season again soon. Feb will be rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Are you ok so far Jer without getting any or little snow? i mean a winter without snow is the worst thing ever. i'll survive. as hard as that is to believe, it's true. and it's easier on the animals, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Feb will be rockin'. LOL Snowpocalypse Part II? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Feb will be rockin'. Since he still insists that we're going to be well above average seasonal snowfall across the area, and has now taken out the rest of January, that means he's thinking a '59/'60 repeat. Nothing less would meet his forecast. I love how the analogs he kept trotting out were not great winters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 If you could make your money back and then some in one day then everyone with the means to do so would have a plow. They don't. without commenting on bb's specific claims, there is sick money to be made pushing snow. a business associate of mine made over $20,000 in three days beginning 12/18/09...after expenses (fuel, repairs, and labor. edit: and insurance obviously). that was with two 4WD F-250's and a bobcat. the key is having the contracts or there being so much snow that anyone with a blade can do walk-ups and make serious cash. hell, a customer of mine was paid fat dough with a glorified lawn tractor, pushing snow in a 0.2 mile turn lane on Rt 17 in Stafford county. it's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 If you could make your money back and then some in one day then everyone with the means to do so would have a plow. They don't. Not really, folk here aren't used to 2ft snowstorms so just drove by knocking on doors offering to clear their driveways and steps. Up north it's less likely you'll make good money with a plow. Perfect latitude here to 'cash in' on big events, both in snowfall and $ I wish I would have done the same thing in Snowmageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Not really, folk here aren't used to 2ft snowstorms so just drove by knocking on doors offering to clear their driveways and steps. Up north it's less likely you'll make good money with a plow. Perfect latitude here to 'cash in' on big events, both in snowfall and $ I wish I would have done the same thing in Snowmageddon. post some pics of your new rig; would love to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I had 2.5" in 08-09 and I'm thriving. you're a strong one. well done, way to persevere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Since he still insists that we're going to be well above average seasonal snowfall across the area, and has now taken out the rest of January, that means he's thinking a '59/'60 repeat. Nothing less would meet his forecast. I love how the analogs he kept trotting out were not great winters here. I said at least 20" Areawide but likely higher, I'm putting it all on the line here. Snowfall is better predicted statistically in certain pattern regimes but that is not always the case. Some analogs that could work for February are February 1968, January/February 1979, and February 2007. Snowfall in various analogs doesn't say much about the pattern, pattern can be great but a shutout results in the snow department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 post some pics of your new rig; would love to see it. Same pickup I've had for the past 3 years in doing landscaping jobs, just a new plow. I'll put it on and then take pics, sound good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Same pickup I've had for the past 3 years in doing landscaping jobs, just a new plow. I'll put it on and then take pics, sound good? yeah. in this case, rig = mounted plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I said at least 20" Areawide but likely higher, I'm putting it all on the line here. Snowfall is better predicted statistically in certain pattern regimes but that is not always the case. Some analogs that could work for February are February 1968, January/February 1979, and February 2007. Snowfall in various analogs doesn't say much about the pattern, pattern can be great but a shutout results in the snow department. That's exactly what doesn't make sense. We all know patterns that look great ahead of time (e.g. all the excitement about the March '05 negative NAO depicted on models) don't always produce for us. Then 2 out of 3 of your analogs were less than 6" of snow at DCA, while the third is one of the best February's ever for the region. Why even put out such a brash snowfall forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I know it is not posted here any longer, but, in trying to keep a positive outlook during these bleak days of non-winter, wanted to restate that KA went for 20-24" at DCA and called for a 6-12" snow storm in February. His temp call looks good so far and he went with a cold February: December:+1 January:+2 February:-3 May the worm turn for us and deliver a rockin' February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 That's exactly what doesn't make sense. We all know patterns that look great ahead of time (e.g. all the excitement about the March '05 negative NAO depicted on models) don't always produce for us. Then 2 out of 3 of your analogs were less than 6" of snow at DCA, while the third is one of the best February's ever for the region. Why even put out such a brash snowfall forecast? Because he is a Unless he can thoroughly explain his reasoning for a 20"+ Feb, he deserves to be treated like one. To be so confident about it in a winter like this, or any winter for that matter, is asinine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I know it is not posted here any longer, but, in trying to keep a positive outlook during these bleak days of non-winter, wanted to restate that KA went for 20-24" at DCA and called for a 6-12" snow storm in February. His temp call looks good so far and he went with a cold February: December:+1 January:+2 February:-3 May the worm turn for us and deliver a rockin' February December was way warmer than +1, and this month will likely end up much warmer than his call. As for his -3 Feb, and 6-12" storm, I'll believe it when I see it, but I wouldn't count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 December was way warmer than +1, and this month will likely end up much warmer than his call. As for his -3 Feb, and 6-12" storm, I'll believe it when I see it, but I wouldn't count on it. As much as you harp on BB for his calls in Feb, whats your reasoning for it not happening? Just a hunch on your end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 [/b] As much as you harp on BB for his calls in Feb, whats your reasoning for it not happening? Just a hunch on your end? Of course it's not impossible that next month will be epic, but the fact that Februaries typically suck more than any other winter month in Ninas, that this is a second year Nina, that we've had a very +NAO/AO and 01-02 like weather so far, and that BB has a poor reputation here, means that it will take a lot of explaining and solid reasoning for his 20"+ call to have any credibility with me. He is free to start a thread and discuss his outlook. I won't mock him if he can logically explain his prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 That's exactly what doesn't make sense. We all know patterns that look great ahead of time (e.g. all the excitement about the March '05 negative NAO depicted on models) don't always produce for us. Then 2 out of 3 of your analogs were less than 6" of snow at DCA, while the third is one of the best February's ever for the region. Why even put out such a brash snowfall forecast? Don't focus on the snowfall in an analog month because global upward motion can be vastly different due to different configuration of SSTA anomalies while the large scale synoptical pattern can be very similar, I believe the answer to DC snowfall lies in the configuration of the global upward motion state which is mostly a result of SSTA setup. I like the look global upward motion state for us, it's part of the reason we've seen 500mb lows stay to our south at times, so now focus on large scale synoptics which if even somewhat close to what I think will happen for February we could see some sick coastals with a moderate -NAO and/or -AO for a period of time. The pattern this winter has been so horrible we haven't been able to tap into any of the great potential. Now that things will change in February as a result of changes in the Solar state that could change very quickly. Notice the warming now down to 30mb and the wind flux reversing or starting to do so. The earth system will compensate for whatever the Sun does, IMO. The Atlantic is warming up, gulf stream is hauling a**, Warmth eeking into some of the eastern ENSO regions. With the right pattern we'll do very well this time with adequately focused thermal energy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Don't focus on the snowfall in an analog month because global upward motion can be vastly different due to different configuration of SSTA anomalies while the large scale synoptical pattern can be very similar, I believe the answer to DC snowfall lies in the configuration of the global upward motion state which is mostly a result of SSTA setup. I like the look global upward motion state for us, it's part of the reason we've seen 500mb lows stay to our south at times, so now focus on large scale synoptics which if even somewhat close to what I think will happen for February we could see some sick coastals with a moderate -NAO and/or -AO for a period of time. The Atlantic is warming up, gulf stream is hauling a**, Warmth eeking into some of the eastern ENSO regions. With the right pattern we'll do very well this time with adequately focused thermal energy: So, if your forecast does not verify, what will you do to improve your own understanding of "the answer to DC snowfall?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 So, if your forecast does not verify, what will you do to improve your own understanding of "the answer to DC snowfall?" If I bust, I'll have to go all the way back to the beginning and try to find where I screwed up, what caused the bust, and how to hopefully avoid it happening again in the future. I could be wrong, wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Of course it's not impossible that next month will be epic, but the fact that Februaries typically suck more than any other winter month in Ninas, that this is a second year Nina, that we've had a very +NAO/AO and 01-02 like weather so far, and that BB has a poor reputation here, means that it will take a lot of explaining and solid reasoning for his 20"+ call to have any credibility with me. He is free to start a thread and discuss his outlook. I won't mock him if he can logically explain his prediction. Fair enough Fizz. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Because he is a Unless he can thoroughly explain his reasoning for a 20"+ Feb, he deserves to be treated like one. To be so confident about it in a winter like this, or any winter for that matter, is asinine. Done and done. I could be wrong, the forecast isn't based off my own personal desires. I like snow, I don't need it to stay sane though, and I have invested $ in a plow with expectation that things turn around. In the meantime troll away, fuzzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Of course it's not impossible that next month will be epic, but the fact that Februaries typically suck more than any other winter month in Ninas, that this is a second year Nina, that we've had a very +NAO/AO and 01-02 like weather so far, and that BB has a poor reputation here, means that it will take a lot of explaining and solid reasoning for his 20"+ call to have any credibility with me. He is free to start a thread and discuss his outlook. I won't mock him if he can logically explain his prediction. ..and even if you expand out to all the other ENSO conditions, the *only* winters where DC has hit 20"+ (not just DCA) after <2" of snow by the end of January were 1913/1914 and 1959/1960. The extraordinary could happen, as it did in those two winters. But, it's also useful to understand that for DC climatology, if your winter has sucked through January, you're very unlikely to get a February through March that can put you well above average in snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 ..and even if you expand out to all the other ENSO conditions, the *only* winters where DC has hit 20"+ (not just DCA) after <2" of snow by the end of January were 1913/1914 and 1959/1960. The extraordinary could happen, as it did in those two winters. But, it's also useful to understand that for DC climatology, if your winter has sucked through January, you're very unlikely to get a February through March that can put you well above average in snowfall. True. Obviously I have pushed the envelope going out on the tightrope, but I think this is an extrordinary circumstance too. If I bust its because I misinterpreted the system state, and a +NAO ends up as the result. The warming at 30mb, and the first signs coming on the pacific side as I thought would happen in December [Pac NW getting some good snows now] gives me confidence that I'm on the right track. if I bust it'll be a horrible experience for me with the hell I'll recieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 True. Obviously I have pushed the envelope going out on the tightrope, but I think this is an extrordinary circumstance too. If I bust its because I misinterpreted the system state, and a +NAO ends up as the result. The warming at 30mb, and the first signs coming on the pacific side as I thought would happen in December [Pac NW getting some good snows now] gives me confidence that I'm on the right track. if I bust it'll be a horrible experience for me with the hell I'll recieve. So then why do you need to post some variation of the snowfall prediction once every couple of days? Just let it stand-- we'll all see what happens. Are you afraid that some of us missed it the first 10 times you posted it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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