HM Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 i would never call you out but had it happened im sure you would have taken the "good job hm!", no? http://www.americanw...04#entry1265404 So let me get this straight. You are calling me out because of what could have happened and not what did happen (you're basically telling me what I would have done---lol)? You don't trust me to keep it real if that were to happen? And where in that link is there a forecast? It simply says if the GFS is right. The "there I said it" was because the raw QPF wouldn't indicate that 1-3" was possible, but the setup would have done that. That's gonna leave a mark Not really. I think as a meteorologist you can see what me and Wes were doing, just fine. im not busting on HM other the fact that it's kinda silly to throw out numbers on a clipper 5-6 days in advance.. and had it come together that's a clear opening to be like "yeah i told you 5-6 days ago!" I really can't believe you are assuming these things. I don't understand why; I really don't. And it isn't silly to throw out numbers for different scenarios in the medium range. It happens all the time. i think wes said 1-2". im not here to bash hm and of course not west but i know how this place works... yeah a good clipper can produce 1-2, 1-3, but we generally don't know that 5 days out. i think this winter is getting to people and making them go out on limbs they dont normally go out on. That's not how this place works. You are basically saying Wes and me would take unwarranted kudos and that's kinda sh-tty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 See what a bad winter does??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 So let me get this straight. You are calling me out because of what could have happened and not what did happen (you're basically telling me what I would have done---lol)? You don't trust me to keep it real if that were to happen? And where in that link is there a forecast? It simply says if the GFS is right. The "there I said it" was because the raw QPF wouldn't indicate that 1-3" was possible, but the setup would have done that. Not really. I think as a meteorologist you can see what me and Wes were doing, just fine. I really can't believe you are assuming these things. I don't understand why; I really don't. And it isn't silly to throw out numbers for different scenarios in the medium range. It happens all the time. That's not how this place works. You are basically saying Wes and me would take unwarranted kudos and that's kinda sh-tty. I may not be a frequent contributor, but I have been reading the board since it was Wright Weather...Yourself and Wes are in my opinion the best forecasters we have had and have taught me more about meteorology than everyone else combined. That being said, I have no idea why this clipper has been the cause of so much drama. Its a ****ty pattern and you merely identified one of many possible solutions. Keep rockin and rollin man as Zevon said, sometimes it ain't that pretty at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 If Ian causes HM to no longer e-road trip to the MA subforum I'm going to ask for my donation back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 See what a bad winter does??? or having the emotional maturity of a 5 year old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 or having the emotional maturity of a 5 year old. You lost your edge. You were a better troll on wwbb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I really can't believe you are assuming these things. I don't understand why; I really don't. And it isn't silly to throw out numbers for different scenarios in the medium range. It happens all the time. That's not how this place works. You are basically saying Wes and me would take unwarranted kudos and that's kinda sh-tty. It is silly to throw out numbers 5-6 days out in most situations, particularly on a clipper. You can't convince me of otherwise. My comments were not at all directed at Wes. He is by far one of the most humble (at least outwardly) forecasters here. I know you like your mystique here. You deserve it for the most part though I think some of your methods and interests in specific dates from weeks and months out are questionable. But again, my initial comment had nothing to do with Wes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 If Ian causes HM to no longer e-road trip to the MA subforum I'm going to ask for my donation back. I'm not causing anything. I think HM is a great forecaster... I don't need to say that every time I reply to him though. Or at least I hope not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It is silly to throw out numbers 5-6 days out in most situations, particularly on a clipper. You can't convince me of otherwise. My comments were not at all directed at Wes. He is by far one of the most humble (at least outwardly) forecasters here. I know you like your mystique here. You deserve it for the most part though I think some of your methods and interests in specific dates from weeks and months out are questionable. But again, my initial comment had nothing to do with Wes.. An amount of rain, snow, temp on a model can be discussed always at any time. Just because the parameter is snow in this case, doesn't make it any different--regardless of your feelings toward snow. Forget Wes then, you basically said what you said about me then and I think it is sh-tty. Thanks for not recanting and just commenting on the Wes-only portion of my response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 yes...RIC set their all-time January record of 81.....the core of the anomalies were in the CHO-RIC corridor so that is where I headed....I don't think anyone in the immediate DC metro hit 80, but I think there were a number of 78-79 readings....As much as I hate heat in winter, if I have a chance to see 80 in January I am going to take advantage.... I'm with you. History is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 An amount of rain, snow, temp on a model can be discussed always at any time. Just because the parameter is snow in this case, doesn't make it any different--regardless of your feelings toward snow. Forget Wes then, you basically said what you said about me then and I think it is sh-tty. Thanks for not recanting and just commenting on the Wes-only portion of my response. Regardless of my feelings toward snow? I love snow. I'm sorry if you think what I said was ****ty. Initially all I said was you mentioned 1-3" of snow. Ji came in and made some side commentary and helped spin this further. I don't know what you want me to say. I think you're a great forecaster. I also think people get attached to their dates and to the fact that they have a reputation. That's not directed at you entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Regardless of my feelings toward snow? I love snow. I'm sorry if you think what I said was ****ty. Initially all I said was you mentioned 1-3" of snow. Ji came in and made some side commentary and helped spin this further. I don't know what you want me to say. I think you're a great forecaster. I also think people get attached to their dates and to the fact that they have a reputation. That's not directed at you entirely. It's fine, we're good and I love the Mid Atlantic forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 You lost your edge. You were a better troll on wwbb. It wasn't directed at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This winter is a train wreck. Can it just be march already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It's fine, we're good and I love the Mid Atlantic forum. I have nothing against you. I am very conservative in forecasting--it generally works, but I'm not a met and would not claim (always) to know more than a met. I'm sorry if I annoyed you.. the intial comment was not meant to that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It wasn't directed at you. Why do you even post here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I'm not causing anything. I think HM is a great forecaster... I don't need to say that every time I reply to him though. Or at least I hope not... I know you're not. It was just a lame attempt at breaking some of the tension. I blame it all on Ji. He's ruffled more feathers this year than a down pillow fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Why do you even post here? Getting my $$ worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It wasn't directed at you. Sorry. I should have known better since you're a Nirvana fan! I have nothing against you. I am very conservative in forecasting--it generally works, but I'm not a met and would not claim (always) to know more than a met. I'm sorry if I annoyed you.. the intial comment was not meant to that's for sure. Everything is fine and I know we're good (we've had some good convos at the other forum). I hope we can get some more opportunities to talk snow soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I'm not really enjoying this winter very much...I wish it would snow...ok.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Don't leave, HM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I know you're not. It was just a lame attempt at breaking some of the tension. I blame it all on Ji. He's ruffled more feathers this year than a down pillow fight. On the contrary, I am impressed with how Ji has handled this whole ordeal. The guy has been almost Zen-like considering what he's had to endure this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 now we know a torch is coming, lol at who just joined http://www.americanw...ost__p__1276765 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I'm not really enjoying this winter very much...I wish it would snow...ok.. Fair enough, It will snow just enough that you can't complain "it's the worst winter ever" Not a flake more, not a flake less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 It won't be the worst winter ever. But it will be among a subset of the worst. Some lousy ones happened in the early '30's, the early 50's, the early 70's and the early 90's, so we were due. The -PDO values were terribly low, which probably had as much or more to do with it as the polar indicies not cooperating. I'm now hoping for a March '76, when a 9 inch snowfall here brought the season's total to 9.6". Short of a late-season event, we'll probably place in the lowest tenth of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Yeah but it drops quick once into mid-70s+. Feb in Nina is almost a gaurantee to get 70. Feb 76 is etched in my mind. Mapgirl would have loved it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 This winter has driven this entire board way out of control lately. So many posters have just totally lost it. Can you believe some of us have gone so crazy that they actually think that 1/10,000 chance of getting > 0.000000001" the rest of the winter? Unbelievable how ordinary people can turn in to such lunatics so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 This winter has driven this entire board way out of control lately. So many posters have just totally lost it. Can you believe some of us have gone so crazy that they actually think that 1/10,000 chance of getting > 0.000000001" the rest of the winter? Unbelievable how ordinary people can turn in to such lunatics so fast. i dunno everytime i see ct blizz say he wont ever see snow again i think he is a total moron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 i dunno everytime i see ct blizz say he wont ever see snow again i think he is a total moron Yeah amazing that guy never learns. But I'm thankful because if he did get a clue the New England board wouldn't be nearly as fun to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The 00z ECMWF is ugly. PV retreats to Greenland next weekend in conjunction with the GOA PV. There are two close-calls but they are generally non-performers this run, especially on Mon-Tues (too warm). PNA ridge tries to go up again late in the run / during the torch week and it basically resembles the pattern in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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