Quasievil Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I can't believe we all fell for the pattern change being advertised last week by the models. We are Charlie Brown. Amazing how quickly it's backed off that idea now. The warm temps predicted for the end of the month just look horrendous. #winter2012FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I can't believe we all fell for the pattern change being advertised last week by the models. We are Charlie Brown. Amazing how quickly it's backed off that idea now. The warm temps predicted for the end of the month just look horrendous. #winter2012FAIL The odds of a proglonged favorable pattern were stacked against us early on though. It's easy for us weenies to hang onto blind hope and latch onto models as we go but in reality, were kinda doomed by thanksgiving. Doomed in the sense that the vast majority of winters that started off with similar patterns were warm all the way through Jan. Feb has better odds of cooler temps though so it's going to be do or die time here shortly. I'll going to make a post in another thread with maps and stats. Maybe relieve some despair with cautious optimism for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think someone should start a thread tracking the potential for highs near 70 for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The odds of a proglonged favorable pattern were stacked against us early on though. It's easy for us weenies to hang onto blind hope and latch onto models as we go but in reality, were kinda doomed by thanksgiving. Doomed in the sense that the vast majority of winters that started off with similar patterns were warm all the way through Jan. Feb has better odds of cooler temps though so it's going to be do or die time here shortly. I'll going to make a post in another thread with maps and stats. Maybe relieve some despair with cautious optimism for Feb. Lead us out of the desert that is Torch City, Bob. Second week of Feb into March-----redemption will be ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I keep thinking this is like a bad dream. We'll all wake up and say, whew, glad that was just a dream. It's only November 15 and winter is still in front of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 when winters go bad...i dont take mercy on anyone. Don Sutherland is next I don't hate you at all and you already trolled Don about his call for warmth when we had out first transient cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 i think wes said 1-2". im not here to bash hm and of course not west but i know how this place works... yeah a good clipper can produce 1-2, 1-3, but we generally don't know that 5 days out. i think this winter is getting to people and making them go out on limbs they dont normally go out on. Evidently no one read my post, I said 1 or 2 inches if everything went right and the more likely forecast was for a dusting, At the end of the post I said it could be 1 to 2 or nothing. I don't think I overplayed it at all. I think some react to any mention of snow and refuse to look at the qulaifiers being used. Then they say you blew it and people start actually thinking they are right. Heck go back an read my article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I don't hate you at all and you already trolled Don about his call for warmth when we had out first transient cold shot. I see that you now have an avatar. Nice pic. It beats all of the torch pics I've been seeing lately. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I keep thinking this is like a bad dream. We'll all wake up and say, whew, glad that was just a dream. It's only November 15 and winter is still in front of us. Well november 15th type weather has been upon us for 2 months now with the exception of today and a few others! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Lead us out of the desert that is Torch City, Bob. Second week of Feb into March-----redemption will be ours. Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Evidently no one read my post, I said 1 or 2 inches if everything went right and the more likely forecast was for a dusting, At the end of the post I said it could be 1 to 2 or nothing. I don't think I overplayed it at all. I think some react to any mention of snow and refuse to look at the qulaifiers being used. Then they say you blew it and people start actually thinking they are right. Heck go back an read my article. i'll admit i did not read your last cwg post as the cf snow potential never seemed exciting and im a "need to be 24-48 hrs out to believe in a clipper" type of person. ji was calling you out here.. i was just responding to him. i was not calling hm out either as i can read qualifiers.. i was mainly pointing out that if it had snowed people would have been like "wow hm called it a week out". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Mid 70s for DC next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Mid 70s for DC next weekend? hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 For the record...circle January 24th-26th 2012 on your calendar...and bring your shorts, t-shirt, and sunscreen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Mid 70s for DC next weekend? next Saturday has very vulnerable records (70 max, 44 hi-min)...not sure if the air mass will be that warm of if the core will be here by then....would have to think the 76/51 on Sunday is safe regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 next Saturday has very vulnerable records (70 max, 44 hi-min)...not sure if the air mass will be that warm of if the core will be here by then....would have to think the 76/51 on Sunday is safe regardless The airmass as modeled is something I've never seen before. Obviously it may be more muted as we get closer, but my God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 might as well go for the monthly record and hit 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The airmass as modeled is something I've never seen before. Obviously it may be more muted as we get closer, but my God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 might as well go for the monthly record and hit 80 January 30, 2002 even though it was 77 on the river had widespread 80-81 reading to the south and southwest....I actually took a ride out 66 and down rt 81 and my car therm hit 82 a couple times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Good grief that's a fiery look in these parts. Doesn't look like Chicago snow is going to stick around long. Severe outbreak in KS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 January 30, 2002 even though it was 77 on the river had widespread 80-81 reading to the south and southwest....I actually took a ride out 66 and down rt 81 and my car therm hit 82 a couple times... I remember that day. We were in the 80s in the Shen Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Payback for the past two great winters Mid 70s for DC next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I will laugh so hard if it really does hit 80........I mean, this kind of weather can happen in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I remember that day. We were in the 80s in the Shen Valley. yes...RIC set their all-time January record of 81.....the core of the anomalies were in the CHO-RIC corridor so that is where I headed....I don't think anyone in the immediate DC metro hit 80, but I think there were a number of 78-79 readings....As much as I hate heat in winter, if I have a chance to see 80 in January I am going to take advantage.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Payback for the past two great winters go back to the Philly forum...bye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think people from outside of the area don't realize the frequence that we hit 70+ in January, like it's somehow supposed to be a huge deal. It happened 5 out of the past 10 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think people from outside of the area don't realize the frequence that we hit 70+ in January, like it's somehow supposed to be a huge deal. It happened 5 out of the past 10 winters. Yeah but it drops quick once into mid-70s+. Feb in Nina is almost a gaurantee to get 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think people from outside of the area don't realize the frequence that we hit 70+ in January, like it's somehow supposed to be a huge deal. It happened 5 out of the past 10 winters. yep...I think mid 70s you start to hit more rare territory....75 would crack the top 10 January all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yeah but it drops quick once into mid-70s+. Feb in Nina is almost a gaurantee to get 70. Still, mid-70's won't cut it for being that huge a deal in terms of the difference in feel. Like you, I hope that we hit 80, and actually start sweating just standing outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yeah I thought back to that. Those ridiculous nights in January wearing shorts. I more or less meant in my experience constantly looking at models. Those 850 temps were ridiculous and for such an expansive area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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