Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GFS mjo forecast is trying to push it to phase 7-8 during by the end of the first week of Jan. It's weak but at least it isn't stuck in the COD. GEFS pushes it back into the COD before leaving phase 5 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GFS mjo forecast is trying to push it to phase 7-8 during by the end of the first week of Jan. It's weak but at least it isn't stuck in the COD. GEFS pushes it back into the COD before leaving phase 5 though. and while the GFS is doing that, the CFS is painting AN temps over the central US the likes of which I've never seen on any of its previous forecast maps for locations so close to us during the winter http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 and while the GFS is doing that, the CFS is painting AN temps over the central US the likes of which I've never seen on any of its previous forecast maps for locations so close to us during the winter http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif question becomes how accurrate is this model and if so , wow, no winter at all. Hard to envision that, but maybe this is the year for no winter or snow. I,m 64 and can remember a couple of very warm winters , but that is limited to 1 or two, at the most. And most did not go the entire winter. Oh well, nothing you can do about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 You know it's a crappy pattern when even SNE can't pull out a snow event. Euro/NAM/GFS just pulled the rug out from under them for the Dec 23 "event". The inevitable northwest trend is a killer. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep....es/Temperature/ Center the 3-month tendencies over the current month (for December you want to use NDJ) December is Phases 7, 8, 1 and kind of 2 for colder East Coast. You went HAM on J Berk.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 and while the GFS is doing that, the CFS is painting AN temps over the central US the likes of which I've never seen on any of its previous forecast maps for locations so close to us during the winter http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif Wow. Those are some warm maps. Of course I'm praying it doesn't happen but I fear 88-89 analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 and while the GFS is doing that, the CFS is painting AN temps over the central US the likes of which I've never seen on any of its previous forecast maps for locations so close to us during the winter http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif Glass half-full comment: at least the AN temps go away in May and June. Maybe we won't see our third-consecutive epic summer furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This month is no better than December 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This month is no better than December 2006. worse maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 You went HAM on J Berk.....lol let's do a snow dance till it snows. i dream of snow!!1! it's going to come because we want it to really badly.. really really badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Ji is hugging anything that brings winter to us It's not just Ji. It's a lot of people doing the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 let's do a snow dance till it snows. i dream of snow!!1! it's going to come because we want it to really badly.. really really badly. Whats the point of having a fan page if you can take people disagreeing with you or pointing out constructive criticism, he said himself hes one track minded this time of year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Whats the point of having a fan page if you can take people disagreeing with you or pointing out constructive criticism, he said himself hes one track minded this time of year.... $$$ and/or popularity with the layman. It doesn't help that I disrespected him, but it is a rather convenient way to get him to notice the post and respond to it. Even after that, I can't respect a meteorologist who completely turns a blind eye to objectivity to wishcast... meteorologists aren't the ones who should be wishcasting. It's degrading to the profession (EDIT: in that it makes me embarrassed with myself and the forecasting community at large to have a colleague speak misinformation to the public). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 question becomes how accurrate is this model and if so , wow, no winter at all. Hard to envision that, but maybe this is the year for no winter or snow. I,m 64 and can remember a couple of very warm winters , but that is limited to 1 or two, at the most. And most did not go the entire winter. Oh well, nothing you can do about it. past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but it has been a torch now for the east for months, sooooooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but it has been a torch now for the east for months, sooooooo... To put it another way... persistence >> long range noise on the models a good majority of the time. In this case, there's no reason not to go with persistence, keeping the warmth in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Mark pissing on pro mets facebook pages, geesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 To put it another way... persistence >> long range noise on the models a good majority of the time. In this case, there's no reason not to go with persistence, keeping the warmth in the East. I would tend to agree but then again...if persistence was the main rule it would just stay warm for eternity. I've always favored patterns ending with a rubber band effect of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I would tend to agree but then again...if persistence was the main rule it would just stay warm for eternity. I've always favored patterns ending with a rubber band effect of sorts. Emphasis on *majority of the time* It obviously isn't true all of the time, but when we're in a solid warm pattern and there's no strong indication of it changing other than fantasy-range modelling, persistence is going to win out for the accurately-foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I would tend to agree but then again...if persistence was the main rule it would just stay warm for eternity. I've always favored patterns ending with a rubber band effect of sorts. I used to think that way until just recently. When I did the bar graphs for the AO dailies, persistence was typically broken with a shorter duration opposite but less strong deviation. I didn't like seeing that at all. There are a few cases of having a strong anomaly switch to a strong opposite anomaly but it was much more rare then just having shorter duration reprieves from the dominant pattern. I read your post two ways though and I'm not sure how you define a pattern ending. If our current dominent +AO pattern was to break for a 1-3 weeks before returning to positive, would you define that intermediate break the end +AO pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 das dtk alyourwxpal Heidi the horrible maybe a couple more I'm blanking on "Professional Met" was the criteria, I think. I'm a hack met, snow weenie of the highest order and yield the floor Wes, DTK, Mark, MN Transplant, etc... for op met expertise. Need to know anything about remote sensing, research or government executive practice and I'm your guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 "Professional Met" was the criteria, I think. I'm a hack met, snow weenie of the highest order and yield the floor Wes, DTK, Mark, MN Transplant, etc... for op met expertise. Need to know anything about remote sensing, research or government executive practice and I'm your guy... I second this...the red tag should actually read "degree in meteorology"...forecasting is just a hobby I'm pretty bad at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I second this...the red tag should actually read "degree in meteorology"...forecasting is just a hobby I'm pretty bad at. Concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Glass half-full comment: at least the AN temps go away in May and June. Maybe we won't see our third-consecutive epic summer furnace. I would trade a snowless winter for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 +AO +NAO +EPO +WPO -PDO and MJO phases 4-6 This regime breaks down 1/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This regime breaks down 1/8. you still DA' MAN!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Glass half-full comment: at least the AN temps go away in May and June. Maybe we won't see our third-consecutive epic summer furnace. Typically, warm winters end cold. See 2001-02. Didn't save us from a blow torch summer that year by a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The 18Z GFS looks somewhat different from the other model runs for Xmas...just pointing it out and not sure if anyone cares at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This regime breaks down 1/8. Into what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This regime breaks down 1/8. man i hope so. this will be my first "frontyard" snowless christmas in 11 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Into what? whatever it is, cant be much worse than we have now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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