Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I would tend to agree but then again...if persistence was the main rule it would just stay warm for eternity. I've always favored patterns ending with a rubber band effect of sorts. I used to think that way until just recently. When I did the bar graphs for the AO dailies, persistence was typically broken with a shorter duration opposite but less strong deviation. I didn't like seeing that at all. There are a few cases of having a strong anomaly switch to a strong opposite anomaly but it was much more rare then just having shorter duration reprieves from the dominant pattern. I read your post two ways though and I'm not sure how you define a pattern ending. If our current dominent +AO pattern was to break for a 1-3 weeks before returning to positive, would you define that intermediate break the end +AO pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 das dtk alyourwxpal Heidi the horrible maybe a couple more I'm blanking on "Professional Met" was the criteria, I think. I'm a hack met, snow weenie of the highest order and yield the floor Wes, DTK, Mark, MN Transplant, etc... for op met expertise. Need to know anything about remote sensing, research or government executive practice and I'm your guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 "Professional Met" was the criteria, I think. I'm a hack met, snow weenie of the highest order and yield the floor Wes, DTK, Mark, MN Transplant, etc... for op met expertise. Need to know anything about remote sensing, research or government executive practice and I'm your guy... I second this...the red tag should actually read "degree in meteorology"...forecasting is just a hobby I'm pretty bad at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I second this...the red tag should actually read "degree in meteorology"...forecasting is just a hobby I'm pretty bad at. Concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Glass half-full comment: at least the AN temps go away in May and June. Maybe we won't see our third-consecutive epic summer furnace. I would trade a snowless winter for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 +AO +NAO +EPO +WPO -PDO and MJO phases 4-6 This regime breaks down 1/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This regime breaks down 1/8. you still DA' MAN!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Glass half-full comment: at least the AN temps go away in May and June. Maybe we won't see our third-consecutive epic summer furnace. Typically, warm winters end cold. See 2001-02. Didn't save us from a blow torch summer that year by a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The 18Z GFS looks somewhat different from the other model runs for Xmas...just pointing it out and not sure if anyone cares at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This regime breaks down 1/8. Into what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This regime breaks down 1/8. man i hope so. this will be my first "frontyard" snowless christmas in 11 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Into what? whatever it is, cant be much worse than we have now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This regime breaks down 1/8. Those are encouraging words for sure. Do you think a decent -ao/nao is in the cards or just a relaxation of the very positive phase we seem to be in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Typically, warm winters end cold. See 2001-02. Didn't save us from a blow torch summer that year by a longshot. what does a blow torch summer have to do with this winter??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 If we had a -nao and a 1032 hp over Quebec it would be snowing pretty hard right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I second this...the red tag should actually read "degree in meteorology"...forecasting is just a hobby I'm pretty bad at. I believe that is the only criteria. I never recall there being a requirement to be a forecaster. This regime breaks down 1/8. Allahu Akbar!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 das dtk alyourwxpal Heidi the horrible maybe a couple more I'm blanking on NCEP/NCO Met here, no forecast product dissemination necessary. I've only forecast the wx pro bono for a radio station in Iowa for a couple years, and did AQ forecasting in North Carolina for 6 months. So I'm currently a forecaster only by hobby as are most of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I'm not really liking this winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 This month is no better than December 2006. Yes, and it's smelling (stinking?) more like 2001-02 only it's a bit wetter! The good thing about '06-'07 is that we had quite the back-loaded winter, beginning about the middle of January and going into March. Along with epic cold during February. Not saying that will happen this winter, but can hope for the last part of the season to give us something to cheer about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I'm not really liking this winter so far It's winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 It's winter? Nope. Ji declared winter over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Looks like we're in a pacific vomit hose pattern for the next 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lol @ people blaming "harsh words/attitudes" on the lack of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lol @ people blaming "harsh words/attitudes" on the lack of snow. Oh come on - you know dam well that many are frustrated and tend to get a bit snippy with each other when there are disagreements. Lets not drag it out further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lol @ people blaming "harsh words/attitudes" on the lack of snow. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lol @ people blaming "harsh words/attitudes" on the lack of snow. That's silly because we all know it's my fault for sticking my hermit crab in the microwave when I was 13. Paybacks are a b!tch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That's silly because we all know it's my fault for sticking my hermit crab in the microwave when I was 13. Paybacks are a b!tch! well you have apologized for it now, so lets hope things improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 well you have apologized for it now, so lets hope things improve I was soooo tempted to respond to marge when he asked if I watched but I refrained from adding a second post in his lame and disingenuous attempt at making people think he had a shred of compassion in his hollow soul. I did watch though. The crab kinda scrambled around a bit then crawled out of his shell and keeled over. I kinda paniced so I jammed him back into his shell (he was kinda hot from the cooking) and put him back in the aquarium. It took my mom about 5 days to realize he kicked the bucket and she was all sensitive to my emotions explaining that "he lived a good life and it was time to move on". LOL- I sat there with a Dennis the Menace smirk thinking "I wonder if it was edible after I cooked it". Before everyone passes judgement.......dig back into your memory banks and think about everything you did when you were 13. For the record.......I have a twinge of guilt for my actions now but since I confessed in marge's thread god forgives me and I'm going to heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I was soooo tempted to respond to marge when he asked if I watched but I refrained from adding a second post in his lame and disingenuous attempt at making people think he had a shred of compassion in his hollow soul. I did watch though. The crab kinda scrambled around a bit then crawled out of his shell and keeled over. I kinda paniced so I jammed him back into his shell (he was kinda hot from the cooking) and put him back in the aquarium. It took my mom about 5 days to realize he kicked the bucket and she was all sensitive to my emotions explaining that "he lived a good life and it was time to move on". LOL- I sat there with a Dennis the Menace smirk thinking "I wonder if it was edible after I cooked it". Before everyone passes judgement.......dig back into your memory banks and think about everything you did when you were 13. For the record.......I have a twinge of guilt for my actions now but since I confessed in marge's thread god forgives me and I'm going to heaven. OMG that's hilarious poor hermit crab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I was soooo tempted to respond to marge when he asked if I watched but I refrained from adding a second post in his lame and disingenuous attempt at making people think he had a shred of compassion in his hollow soul. I did watch though. The crab kinda scrambled around a bit then crawled out of his shell and keeled over. I kinda paniced so I jammed him back into his shell (he was kinda hot from the cooking) and put him back in the aquarium. It took my mom about 5 days to realize he kicked the bucket and she was all sensitive to my emotions explaining that "he lived a good life and it was time to move on". LOL- I sat there with a Dennis the Menace smirk thinking "I wonder if it was edible after I cooked it". Before everyone passes judgement.......dig back into your memory banks and think about everything you did when you were 13. For the record.......I have a twinge of guilt for my actions now but since I confessed in marge's thread god forgives me and I'm going to heaven. There is a frog waiting for me in heaven/hell that is just gonna whup my azz for what I did to it way back when i was a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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