kurtstack Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I could honestly care less about nina. If we can somehow get a -AO in January and/or February, we have a decent shot to get above average snowfall. Norfolk and Jersey did quite well in last years nina when the AO was negative. We were just a tad unlucky in the immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Winter could be a bust this year, but we still have plenty of time for things to change. I see already on the 15 day a potential for winter weather in dc around the 29-30 of December. That to me is a sign that things could be changing. I know you can not count on anything that far out, but seeing that makes me have just a little hope for our future. I think to myself that we all thought winter was coming early with the halloween weekend storm and getting screwed for the most part in my area. " I THINK WEATHER IS MAGIC TO ME AND WHEN A MAGIC SHOW ALWAYS STARTS OFF SLOW AND ALWAYS FOR THE MOST FINISHES WITH A BIG BANG" Patience to all the magic of winter has started and we have a ways to goes before the finally bang. Remember that everyone. We will get our real snows at the end of Jan and Feb. Weather is a phenomenon just like magic in the sky. Early start with a major trick up mother natures sleeve means a great finish in my book. Also does anyone remember the song Ice Ice baby. Well that will be the major factor to our magic show during this winter with a bang to go out on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I could honestly care less about nina. If we can somehow get a -AO in January and/or February, we have a decent shot to get above average snowfall. Norfolk and Jersey did quite well in last years nina when the AO was negative. We were just a tad unlucky in the immediate area. yes...because it was La Nina and La Nina is not good for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The low level +QBO is by far the more important driver in the equatorial stratosphere here. If you remember my thread about the westerly QBO and La Nina, the composites were overall for DJFM. When looking solely at December, you will notice that most of the years listed had lower solar flux than 2011. The only year that didn't was 1999. Taking into account all years, the analogs that had a solar peak (number doesn't matter) in Nov/Dec all had a warm signal for December. It seemed like, depending on the lower QBO phase, the warmth was positioned differently. Thanks, I learn alot from your posts. I'm wondering about a few things my bro told me regarding this year's best analogs, and QBO matches. He found that this winter being the year of/shortly before the Sun's magnetic field flip, that the best analogs for this winter ironically also feature a flip...they include 1967/68, 1978/79, 1988/89 and 1999/00 which have all been coming up constantly. And also foud that a large majority of mixed QBO signal years occur during a weak and/or flipping interplanetary magnetic field. I find this too much to be coincidence and am wondering if there is something to all this maybe you know of? He also found correlation to ENSO, the PDO, AMO and the Global temp, to the Geomag flux/AP index, and the Interplanetary magnetif field direction and strength. The 2009/10 El Nino signal shows up amazingly well in the AP index in 2003/04. December 1967 looks much like what we have seen to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 yes...because it was La Nina and La Nina is not good for us Ugh. The point was that it was very good for a lot of places where "nina" is typically not good. It wasn't nina that put a snow hole over northern VA last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Ugh. The point was that it was very good for a lot of places where "nina" is typically not good. It wasn't nina that put a snow hole over northern VA last year. Well it kind of was the La Nina, they weren't STJ oriented systems, they jumped to the coast from a northern stream source region and "skipped" over us as they energy transfer occured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Ugh. The point was that it was very good for a lot of places where "nina" is typically not good. It wasn't nina that put a snow hole over northern VA last year. Nina is less hostile for snow the further north you go. And places like far SE VA and NC really don't have heavy Nino/Nina splits like DC/BWI do. Their temps are affected, but their snow climo is low enough that it doesn't really show up...they can get some of those fast moving storms in a Nina that miss wide right. DC is a bit unique in that its tucked a bit west but still south enough that some more specific parameters are needed for above avg snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Nina is less hostile for snow the further north you go. And places like far SE VA and NC really don't have heavy Nino/Nina splits like DC/BWI do. Their temps are affected, but their snow climo is low enough that it doesn't really show up...they can get some of those fast moving storms in a Nina that miss wide right. DC is a bit unique in that its tucked a bit west but still south enough that some more specific parameters are needed for above avg snow. That may be true, but it was an odd occurrence where folks to our north east south and west faired better then the immediate local. That's why I think it's an over generalization to say we underperformed because of nina. In fact 7/21 (33%) ninas were better than average here at DCA, and given we only overperform 41% of the time in non-ninas, I see the nina only hurting our chances 8%, while we have 0 examples of overperforming winters when Dec/Jan/Feb were all +AO. So, basically what I'm saying is the state of the AO is much more important for our location than the nina, at least in a statistical sense. Not that it matters at this point since there is no sign of a -AO in the foreseeable future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim_in_CA Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 A-thankyou I'm with you as well. I'd rather cold than warm in the winter, snow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Don S said that he expects this winter to be in the bottom 20% as far as East coast cities getting snow. That would mean BWI gets less than 11" for the season, and DCA, 8" or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Don S said that he expects this winter to be in the bottom 20% as far as East coast cities getting snow. That would mean BWI gets less than 11" for the season, and DCA, 8" or less. I don't know whether I'm that bearish but think the overall pattern does stink and that the AO index in Jan probably will average on the positive side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think I will bust high with my prediction of 14.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Don S said that he expects this winter to be in the bottom 20% as far as East coast cities getting snow. That would mean BWI gets less than 11" for the season, and DCA, 8" or less. he's too bearish down here imo....it's DEC 19th Don S is an excellent poster, but I think 40N cancelling winter in the next 2-4 weeks will become a theme....When you have averaged 800% of normal for the last 5 years it is easy to make bold statements about the entire east coast.... our climo sucks....so getting there isn't that hard...I still think the o/u for DCA/BWI are higher than those numbers.... I think any blanket statements about winter down here before 3rd week of January are silly....and even then we could get a March 99, or March 2009 or Feb 1986 or Feb 1972 or March 1976 or March 84 or Feb 2006 or Feb 2001...... the opinion of people from 40N on our winter doesn't mean much to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 he's too bearish down here imo....it's DEC 19th Don S is an excellent poster, but I think 40N cancelling winter in the next 2-4 weeks will become a theme....When you have averaged 800% of normal for the last 5 years it is easy to make bold statements about the entire east coast.... our climo sucks....so getting there isn't that hard...I still think the o/u for DCA/BWI are higher than those numbers.... I think any blanket statements about winter down here before 3rd week of January are silly....and even then we could get a March 99, or March 2009 or Feb 1986 or Feb 1972 or March 1976 or March 84 or Feb 2006 or Feb 2001...... the opinion of people from 40N on our winter doesn't mean much to me.... If I were to guess now I'd say somewhere in the 8-12 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If I were to guess now I'd say somewhere in the 8-12 inch range. Which would put me in the 2-4" at the most. My climo sucks worse than ya'll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If I were to guess now I'd say somewhere in the 8-12 inch range. I will take that in a heartbeat, that would probably put me in the 17-21 inch range. Go Niners, i need you to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If I were to guess now I'd say somewhere in the 8-12 inch range. As long as it isn't overly cold in getting there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If I were to guess now I'd say somewhere in the 8-12 inch range. a few days ago I said I thought the o/u dropped from 11-12 down to 10.8-11.3" range...so I will stick with that...so we are in agreement....maybe my range would be 9-13" as of right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Guess I'm the odd one out, not that itsworth much here but I'm personally sold on the idea that we all end up with well above average snowfall, resulting from powerful coastals later in the winter. Pattern stinks bad now w/ the MJO in the circle of hell over those warm SSTAs back east, but all supplies in chaos+constant change are finite..this regime won't be able to last into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I will take that in a heartbeat, that would probably put me in the 17-21 inch range. Go Niners, i need you to win. wont make any difference, ravens are too inconsistent to win on the road, let alone the bowl. They are not a superbowl team. San Diego proved that point beyond a doubt. Flacco can't figure out how to score points if the coacnhing staff can't make adjustments. Sunday was an embarrassment. Suggs should just shut his mouth until they win out. Otherwise , he's running his mouth and can't back it up. GFS looses storm again. What the heck. Rellying on this model leaves a great deal to be disired. US models always leave a great deal to be diesired. edit "" whoa, 49ers beat steelers 20-3 , ravens may get a bye after all. You never know. I thought steelers would bring A game. Guess not. Ravens lucky this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 My seasonal snow guess should have been lower. Hoping for Dec climo snow was foolish given how the atmosphere wanted to act since Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Our December climo snow is so low that not hitting it doesn't make much difference. I'm convinced the pattern will break and we'll get some cold and blocking later in the season (perhaps into March) and we make up the deficit. Of course, I have nothing to back it up iother than hunch...which is why this is in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS doesn't like the pattern after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I still think many are pulling the plug too early this year to, at least, an average snowfall winter we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corrie Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You should see the posts from people on the mid-atlantic skiing forum....they are all getting ready for mass suicides at this point. Even Wisp which usually gets some good snow by this time of year is looking awfully green... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The Euro and GFS ensemble means for the longwave pattern in the long range don't look QUITE as bad as yesterday's runs. More like what we have now with weak +PNA and big +AO, +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I still think many are pulling the plug too early this year to, at least, an average snowfall winter we'll see I'm not all down on the winter but I've almost pulled the plug on the chances of sustained cold and blocking. Unfortunately I did alot of analysis on the major indexes through the last 50-60 years and there's a pretty clear signal that this winter won't have any long periods of -ao/nao. There was only one exception and that was 79-80. 14 others with a similar nov-dec ended warm. Snow on the other hand shouldn't be a big bust. I'll stick with my earlier call of 15"+/- @ DCA but that is probably too high. I'm a weenie though so who cares what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS doesn't like the pattern after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This winter is never to get started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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