2011 Winter Banter Thread

[Fozz]

I'm trying to decide what's worse- an 01/02 or 75/76. At least 01/02 was terrible for everybody here. 75/76-- small snows every month, wait and wait until you get to March, and then you get the killer gradient storm with 6" in the suburbs but less than an inch at DCA.

01-02 wasn't terrible for everyone.......there was a major southern snowstorm in early January and another good storm in Feb, and therefore a lot of places exceeded their average. Atlanta got more snow than us that winter, and so did most places between us and Florida.

I was 11 back then, and seeing all these places get more snow enraged me. It was the most vile winter in memory......07-08 was far far better IMO.

/end rant

[WinterWxLuvr]

me neither...not close at all but I'd like a FG before halftime just to get on the scoreboard

I think that you have made two excellent points on this page. One, the October snow has definitely put most of us in a state of mind that we probably wouldn't be in right now. Last year, the first accumulating snow in Winchester was on Dec. 16, about 2 inches. I wasn't in any type of panic mode then. I'm not in one now, but just call me anxious waiting on a decent snow. Two, any type of small event before New Years would probably give us some momentum heading into the 2nd half, the true winter months.

[mitchnick]

I'm trying to decide what's worse- an 01/02 or 75/76. At least 01/02 was terrible for everybody here. 75/76-- small snows every month, wait and wait until you get to March, and then you get the killer gradient storm with 6" in the suburbs but less than an inch at DCA.

having lived through and remembering both, 01/02 was worse....hands down

76' had a surprise storm in early MAR that saved it from being an 01/02

[ORH_wxman]

Why does there seem to be alot of energy and closed lows sliding through the SW this year? I lived in CO rockies through the 90's and Nina's always meant good early season snow in the northern part of the state and the opposite with Nino's. Not happening like that this year.

The central and northern rockies aren't doing well at all right now but the SW part of CO is doing very well. Wolf Creek in the sw portion of CO has already had 186" of snow and Breckenridge in the north central mountains has had about 65". This is the exact opposite of what you would expect in a Nina.

The only reason why I bring this up is because it is anomalous and if it keeps up it would increase the EC's chances at a decent phaser IF we ever get some blocking in place. I discussed this with zwts in a thread a while back and he made a very valid point than energy coming out of the sw and travelling along the gulf states is more prone to shear out in a Nina. It does have my interest because if we want to see a big storm in a Nina, we would need some sort of phase with split flow because the stj will likely be quiet.

A well timed 500mb low coming out of the sw phasing with a ns vort diving out of canada could give us all a decent hit if we can crank a -nao at some point. We got close a couple times last year but it was a bunch of swings and misses for us down here. Miller B's aren't going to do it for us. We need the 500 and 850 low to track to our south or we end up with a bunch of MA weenies on the ledge (including me).

This winter has acted a bit like a Nino thus far in some senses. Lots of ridging over the PNA region...I'm not sure of the exact causes, but the Aleutian Ridge has been muted and the lack of a good polar jet getting further south is helping for some of the energy diving southward from the PNA ridging to get cutoff over the rockies and go SW. It might be a combo of the weird QBO configuration early on, the sudden jump in solar (that now seems to be wearing off) and maybe even a delayed response (which is normal) to the temporary halt in the Nina strengthening back in late Oct or Nov. I'm not expert on those causes, but regardless, the profile has been a bit Nino-like thus far with the northern tier baking more than the southern tier.

Signs are that is changing though...Nina resumed its strengthening a while back, the -QBO is descending, and the recent stratospheric warming (while not a SSW) should help nudge the PV a bit to make room for the Aleutian ridge to flex it muscles, so I expect we'll start to see a little bit more Nina profile as we get into latter December here....but the true arctic air is still tough to come by south of the CONUS border with Canada.

[Deck Pic]

This winter has acted a bit like a Nino thus far in some senses. Lots of ridging over the PNA region...I'm not sure of the exact causes, but the Aleutian Ridge has been muted and the lack of a good polar jet getting further south is helping for some of the energy diving southward from the PNA ridging to get cutoff over the rockies and go SW. It might be a combo of the weird QBO configuration early on, the sudden jump in solar (that now seems to be wearing off) and maybe even a delayed response (which is normal) to the temporary halt in the Nina strengthening back in late Oct or Nov. I'm not expert on those causes, but regardless, the profile has been a bit Nino-like thus far with the northern tier baking more than the southern tier.

Signs are that is changing though...Nina resumed its strengthening a while back, the -QBO is descending, and the recent stratospheric warming (while not a SSW) should help nudge the PV a bit to make room for the Aleutian ridge to flex it muscles, so I expect we'll start to see a little bit more Nina profile as we get into latter December here....but the true arctic air is still tough to come by south of the CONUS border with Canada.

how is the morale in your forum overall?....I know Kev's coping mechanism is to pretend that everything is perfectly fine and that a good storm is just around the corner...how bout Ray?....has he melted down yet?

[Huffwx]

01-02 would be painful here. After watching the March 01 storm trend north north north-- I assumed the Jan 2-3 storm would north. The super confluence made a super sharp cut off. We squeezed 2 inches in the afternoon that should have been S+ (dry air aloft) and placed 20 miles south had 8-12 inches. No thanks-- (OK, I did chase)

I'm not negative yet--

[ORH_wxman]

how is the morale in your forum overall?....I know Kev's coping mechanism is to pretend that everything is perfectly fine and that a good storm is just around the corner...how bout Ray?....has he melted down yet?

Ray is close to melting down, but he hasn't yet.

I think most reasonable people are being patient. Even if we just want to be weenies about the snow totals for the season, the Oct storm helps hold off climo for a while. I've had a horrific Nov/Dec period but am still above climo for this time of year only because of that freak storm. (actually two storms...Oct 27 dumped like 2")

But I think it will start to look and feel a lot bleaker if we don't see much hope by the final week of December. It hurts to waste December here...a lot more than for you. You can shrug off December pretty easily and log in an average snowfall season without too much trouble.

We'll have to see how the next 2 weeks perform. Sometimes we can pull off an ugly 3-6" event in a bad pattern...that would probably calm a lot of people even though the long wave pattern is still garbage.

I think there is some reason for hope though down the line...it doesn't look like a bottomless pit of zonal flow to me through the end of January. Maybe that will change if this warming (that is less than a SSW) in Asia craps the bed and the Aleutian ridge fails to amplify poleward, but until there's good evidence of that, I will remain fairly optimistic about some changes in January.

[showmethesnow]

The off run 06Z NAM takes the precip back south towards Richmond. Also says forget about anything on Sunday unless you live in the mountains.

mode: On the other hand the radar at this time compared to the 00Z NAM @6 hrs looks to have the precip a little farther north.

[mitchnick]

6Z NAM = 0Z Euro = NADA

[Deck Pic]

With the caveat that I am a longtime contributor and that I pimp out the site constantly as the best weather source out there, how long do we have to tolerate CWG's warminista pandering?...It is getting really old...it is December 16th....yesterday was a +13....today is a +10....this weekend might actually be climatologically normal for a 2 day stretch...there is no reason to apologize for that and encourage winter haters to keep complaining...There is no shame in liking snow and cold...it should not have to be accompanied by apologies....ever

[Ian]

With the caveat that I am a longtime contributor and that I pimp out the site constantly as the best weather source out there, how long do we have to tolerate CWG's warminista pandering?...It is getting really old...it is December 16th....yesterday was a +13....today is a +10....this weekend might actually be climatologically normal for a 2 day stretch...there is no reason to apologize for that and encourage winter haters to keep complaining...There is no shame in liking snow and cold...it should not have to be accompanied by apologies....ever

yeah sometimes it's a bit much probably. i had to tone down camden's words in like 5 places with today's forecasts where he was sorry about today being chilly and the weekend being cold. we're about avg for a few days.. could certainly be worse if you don't like cold.

[usedtobe]

yeah sometimes it's a bit much probably. i had to tone down camden's words in like 5 places with today's forecasts where he was sorry about today being chilly and the weekend being cold. we're about avg for a few days.. could certainly be worse if you don't like cold.

Is Camden a guy who likes it warm?

[Ian]

Is Camden a guy who likes it warm?

I think so. I'd say on the whole CWG likes warm unless it's going to snow. There are a relative few who proclaim their love of cold at least. I guess we're almost a southern city so not totally nuts but it's cold here every winter.

[Scuddz]

I think so. I'd say on the whole CWG likes warm unless it's going to snow. There are a relative few who proclaim their love of cold at least. I guess we're almost a southern city so not totally nuts but it's cold here every winter.

A-Hem... I'd love nothing better than a week of clear skies and teens for highs. It's invigorating.

[Ian]

A-Hem... I'd love nothing better than a week of clear skies and teens for highs. It's invigorating.

ok, so you go on the weirdo list.

[Scuddz]

ok, so you go on the weirdo list.

A-thankyou

[Kevin Druff]

A-Hem... I'd love nothing better than a week of clear skies and teens for highs. It's invigorating.

Put 6-8" of snow on the ground first and then I would be down with this hardcore.

[phils1]

Stratospheric warming events can take many weeks to evolve from the initial warming near the pole to an actual temperature pattern flip in the continental US. The latest detailed video at "The SI Weather.com" describes the 1998-1999 and 1984-1985 stratospheric warming events and how they both evolved over many weeks from November to January.

[ravensrule]

Stratospheric warming events can take many weeks to evolve from the initial warming near the pole to an actual temperature pattern flip in the continental US. The latest detailed video at "The SI Weather.com" describes the 1998-1999 and 1984-1985 stratospheric warming events and how they both evolved over many weeks from November to January.

You plug your website in every post you make, you should start having to pay an advertising fee if you do not donate here.

[ravensrule]

ok, so you go on the weirdo list.

Add me to the weirdo list, if it is not going to snow at least let it be in the teens for highs.

[Ellinwood]

You plug your website in every post you make, you should start having to pay an advertising fee if you do not donate here.

True that.

Maybe force him over to the Weather Marketplace forum like FreshAJ?

I can't pay attention to a 10 minute weather discussion on youtube telling me things I've already read on the forum.

[ravensrule]

True that.

Maybe force him over to the Weather Marketplace forum like FreshAJ?

I can't pay attention to a 10 minute weather discussion on youtube telling me things I've already read on the forum.

Totally agreed.

[Deck Pic]

With the caveat that I am a longtime contributor and that I pimp out the site constantly as the best weather source out there, how long do we have to tolerate CWG's warminista pandering?...It is getting really old...it is December 16th....yesterday was a +13....today is a +10....this weekend might actually be climatologically normal for a 2 day stretch...there is no reason to apologize for that and encourage winter haters to keep complaining...There is no shame in liking snow and cold...it should not have to be accompanied by apologies....ever

Ji isn't happy either...maybe we are just frustrated

http://www.facebook.com/capitalweather

[mitchnick]

With the caveat that I am a longtime contributor and that I pimp out the site constantly as the best weather source out there, how long do we have to tolerate CWG's warminista pandering?...It is getting really old...it is December 16th....yesterday was a +13....today is a +10....this weekend might actually be climatologically normal for a 2 day stretch...there is no reason to apologize for that and encourage winter haters to keep complaining...There is no shame in liking snow and cold...it should not have to be accompanied by apologies....ever

the realities of politics when you come down to it ( it is D.C.)

sux to be the average person who likes snow

nothing personal to anyone on this Board who contributes, but if it wasn't for the links from this Board, I would never (and I mean never) look at it

[BethesdaWX]

I guess what I mean is, nothing should be off the table at this point

I am not blind to the fact that this winter has a very low possibility of turning out to be a 95/96 or 09/10, but late blooming years (most, for different reasons) like 86/87, 92/93, 98/99, 99/00, 04/05, and 06/07 to some extent, are all

on the table imho due to weak/mod NINA and yes, E QBO

I believe the solar output has been our problem so far and, so long as the sun cooperates, we have a decent shot at normal/AN snows

again, my focus is on snow and not temps; we can be AN temps, but if we get decent snow, I don't care about temps (otoh, we rarely get AN snow with AN temps, but whatever)

so, call it experience ( OK, my age) or patience, I'm no where near to throwing in the towel

The Sun and the fact that the QBO in the low levels is still westerly which matters more to us in my opinion.

I think we'll have something to track late month, but late January and February has always been my bet

[Deck Pic]

the realities of politics when you come down to it ( it is D.C.)

sux to the average person

nothing personal to anyone on this Board who contributes, but if it wasn't for the links from this Board, I would never (and I mean never) look at it

really?....Wes's articles are excellent...Ian often contributes great content as well as some others....and as far as a forecast I think they are the best..especially WRT more iinteresting rain, snow, severe events etc...If I have been offline for 6 hours and I want to get the latest on an event, that is the 1st place I am going 100% of the time because it is compiled of talented people doing consensus, probabilistic forecasting and all the latest guidance and trends are going to be summarized and fleshed out for me...over time, they are almost always going to out forecast every other entity....in terms of discussion this place is better...they have a broader audience....

But as far as snow and cold, yes....the public if not overwhelmingly, as a majority dislikes cold and snow and CWG is going to pander to the majority....I think the pandering goes overboard a lot of the time, but they have a responsibility to generate page views, hits so there is going to be some "selling out" involved.....it is just excessive is some cases

[mitchnick]

The Sun and the fact that the QBO in the low levels is still westerly which matters more to us in my opinion.

I think we'll have something to track late month, but late January and February has always been my bet

the sun has finally calmed down

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html

we still have a shot

[mitchnick]

really?....Wes's articles are excellent...Ian often contributes great content as well as some others....and as far as a forecast I think they are the best..especially WRT more iinteresting rain, snow, severe events etc...If I have been offline for 6 hours and I want to get the latest on an event, that is the 1st place I am going 100% of the time because it is compiled of talented people doing consensus, probabilistic forecasting and all the latest guidance and trends are going to be summarized and fleshed out for me...over time, they are almost always going to out forecast every other entity....in terms of discussion this place is better...they have a broader audience....

But as far as snow and cold, yes....the public if not overwhelmingly, as a majority dislikes cold and snow and CWG is going to pander to the majority....I think the pandering goes overboard a lot of the time, but they have a responsibility to generate page views, hits so there is going to be some "selling out" involved.....it is just excessive is some cases

I just don't go there...sorry

I'm a weenie, I know where to go for reality....I know where to go for fantasy....and I can make my own forecasts, so maybe that's what it comes down to

[HM]

The Sun and the fact that the QBO in the low levels is still westerly which matters more to us in my opinion.

I think we'll have something to track late month, but late January and February has always been my bet

The low level +QBO is by far the more important driver in the equatorial stratosphere here. If you remember my thread about the westerly QBO and La Nina, the composites were overall for DJFM. When looking solely at December, you will notice that most of the years listed had lower solar flux than 2011. The only year that didn't was 1999.

Taking into account all years, the analogs that had a solar peak (number doesn't matter) in Nov/Dec all had a warm signal for December. It seemed like, depending on the lower QBO phase, the warmth was positioned differently.

[HM]

i may bookmark your post just in case. but coming from you that is meaningful for sure. then again we got so little snow last winter it would not be that hard...

Agreed that the statement is sort of insignificant for the immediate DC area. The thing you folks in the Mid-Atlantic should be noticing and excited about is the El Nino-like touch to the pattern. The summer-like, delayed winter, in the Tropical Latitudes is part of the recent solar peak and downwelling westerly QBO. This has produced the enhanced convection north of the Equator in the Central Pacific and enhanced the STJ (some of y'all were too quick to pick on Okie back in the autumn). I also believe this is why the MJO has been more coherent than in some other La Ninas.

Many believed the MJO would be dead this year because of the QBO but I am arguing quite the opposite. Anyway, these are all things that could support an El Nino-like setup for the Mid Atlantic at some point mid-winter and possibly bring a better setup for a snowstorm. The window would likely be late Jan-early Feb (climo a major factor here along with the gradual shift in the global regime). But I still like some dates before that window for some potential accumulating snow.