Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yup, we usually get lucky once or twice a winter-- like a clipper that overperforms (e.g. 12/5/07, although the January storm that winter was pretty lucky too given the pattern)-- no matter the ENSO state. Other than 01/02, even during a Nina, we have multiple shots at modest snow. And since this winter does have cold air available, I am fine knowing that we'll probably get the usual mix of 1" clippers with a couple of 2-4" or 3-5" events. I know this has been pointed out time and time again: The only thing that distinguishes a 6-10" Nina winter from a 16" one is that one freak 8-12" storm (12/70, 12/73, 3/99, 1/00, etc.) where somehow it's raining in New England while it's snowing here or the snow doesn't even make it up to them. We obviously can't bank on that happening, but I'm ok with the 8" "floor" that these seasons have shown. me too, but now that we realize this is a legit Nina behaving like a Nina and not some counterfeit Nina with a southern stream following a 6 year warm event like 95-96, there is a ceiling....and I think it is 15-18" for DCA......while we could surpass it with a "big" event...we never do.....the ceiling is rock solid and firm....other than 95, when is the last time we had big totals in a legit La Nina?....1917?....people like to talk hypothetically about the big events and we are in an era when they are more prevalent, but I still think the percentage chance of piercing the ceiling given what we know now on Dec 15th is around 15%..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 not in particular though i figured she was talking about you. i just know the long rangers can be defensive when i say it's like looking into a crystal ball -- i guess it's trolling. I wouldn't buy any nat gas futures on my 1 month forecasts, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It's okay, I was trolling him too. Trying to get "accidentally" banned again, I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 LOL, not that hard, but that not easy either to go over 10" at DCA : ) Since 1980, it's been about 40% of winters at less than 10" there. if I had to make a prediction right now, id go 60% <12" and 40% >12"..maybe 65/35 but no worse than that at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I've thought for a while now that the PAC side will flip first and then the Atlantic side. This might be what the weeklies are doing as they amplify the Aleutian ridge poleward and it actually forces the PV toward the SE Davis straight...beyond that time frame is when hopefully the tropics help out and disturb that PV a little more and maybe break some of it off and retrograde it south via an amplifying ridge in the NAO region...even if east based. That is pure speculation, but that's probably sort of how it might get broken down on the ATL side. going into this winter I thought the o/u for DCA was 11-12"....i dont think that has changed a whole lot...if I was going to adjust down, I'd probably only go to the 10.8" - 11.3" range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 me too, but now that we realize this is a legit Nina behaving like a Nina and not some counterfeit Nina with a southern stream following a 6 year warm event like 95-96, there is a ceiling....and I think it is 15-18" for DCA......while we could surpass it with a "big" event...we never do.....the ceiling is rock solid and firm....other than 95, when is the last time we had big totals in a legit La Nina?....1917?....people like to talk hypothetically about the big events and we are in an era when they are more prevalent, but I still think the percentage chance of piercing the ceiling given what we know now on Dec 15th is around 15%..... Yup, and even in the Ninas where we had those freak events I listed, the events weren't 20" blizzards. They were the memorable, but not historic, 8-12" type storm which only managed to max DCA out at 17" for the seasonal total ('73/'74). It's all about expectations-- yes, we expect to see accumulating snow several times this winter; no, we don't expect a great winter, even with a big storm. A best case scenario would include an oddball storm, but of course we're not likely to get a best case scenario. '95/'96 was already special for the I-95 corridor by 12/15.. our area had three accumulating snows by that point, with two of them in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yup, and even in the Ninas where we had those freak events I listed, the events weren't 20" blizzards. They were the memorable, but not historic, 8-12" type storm which only managed to max DCA out at 17" for the seasonal total ('73/'74). It's all about expectations-- yes, we expect to see accumulating snow several times this winter; no, we don't expect a great winter, even with a big storm. A best case scenario would include an oddball storm, but of course we're not likely to get a best case scenario. '95/'96 was already special for the I-95 corridor by 12/15.. our area had three accumulating snows by that point, with two of them in November. yes...you can't use words like never and impossible....but I think the body of work, 12/31/70, 12/16/73, 3/9/99, 1/25/00, 2/11/06, 3/1/09, 1/26/11 is sufficient enough to suggest that even if we are lucky enough to get a moderate to big KU event that the ceiling is probably still legit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Trying to get "accidentally" banned again, I see HA! So you did do it on purpose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 it is just way too early in the season in our area to give up way too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 it is just way too early in the season in our area to give up way too early Give up on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 going into this winter I thought the o/u for DCA was 11-12"....i dont think that has changed a whole lot...if I was going to adjust down, I'd probably only go to the 10.8" - 11.3" range Yeah I don't think you have a big reason to change it right now. December climo isn't worth much anyway at DCA...and if getting a horrendous December pattern helps make for the timing of a flip to occur in January, then that might actually help DCA versus getting a "favorable" December pattern and then flipping to a torch in January like 2005-2006. I don't think I'd adjust significantly downward until we saw strong signs that a January flip won't happen or it will be very late January...by then the clock is starting to tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 it is just way too early in the season in our area to give up way too early nobody is giving up, but I don't think there was as much angst in 2004 and 2006.....maybe because they were ninos...maybe because there was no OCT 29th and maybe because SNE is snowless and +1000 on the month....we have to let this winter play out....but I think until something positive comes to fruition, the ghost of 2001-02 always lingers in the back of our minds when the vodka cold and pattern change was always just around the corner..I think both me and you will be on the board with at least one event over 1" by January 15th....and if we aren't what can we do?....I'll probably chase if this winter completely sh-its the bed, but as far as our backyard we are powerless.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 nobody is giving up, but I don't think there was as much angst in 2004 and 2006.....maybe because they were ninos...maybe because there was no OCT 29th and maybe because SNE is snowless and +1000 on the month....we have to let this winter play out....but I think until something positive comes to fruition, the ghost of 2001-02 always lingers in the back of our minds when the vodka cold and pattern change was always just around the corner..I think both me and you will be on the board with at least one event over 1" by January 15th....and if we aren't what can we do?....I'll probably chase if this winter completely sh-its the bed, but as far as our backyard we are powerless.. I've thought about it for a while, but I'm still thinking the second half of winter could turn out ok...IOW..winter not ending on Ground Hog day like in previous Ninas. Part of it is due to the fact that we simply will have a Feb and March sooner or later (I know you guys had early Feb 2010), but all these events occurring into January may help promote winter going into Feb and maybe even March down here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm trying to decide what's worse- an 01/02 or 75/76. At least 01/02 was terrible for everybody here. 75/76-- small snows every month, wait and wait until you get to March, and then you get the killer gradient storm with 6" in the suburbs but less than an inch at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I've thought about it for a while, but I'm still thinking the second half of winter could turn out ok...IOW..winter not ending on Ground Hog day like in previous Ninas. Part of it is due to the fact that we simply will have a Feb and March sooner or later (I know you guys had early Feb 2010), but all these events occurring into January may help promote winter going into Feb and maybe even March down here too. March '76, '99, and '09 had by far the best storms of the winter for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm trying to decide what's worse- an 01/02 or 75/76. At least 01/02 was terrible for everybody here. 75/76-- small snows every month, wait and wait until you get to March, and then you get the killer gradient storm with 6" in the suburbs but less than an inch at DCA. From a multi-region standpoint, '75-'76 would prob be tougher for snow enthusiasts in DC...New England got hit pretty good that winter, particularly in December 1975 and January 1976, Feb was a furnace. At least in '01-'02, it was horrendous in the entire Northeast. Everyone shared misery that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 From a multi-region standpoint, '75-'76 would prob be tougher for snow enthusiasts in DC...New England got hit pretty good that winter, particularly in December 1975 and January 1976, Feb was a furnace. At least in '01-'02, it was horrendous in the entire Northeast. Everyone shared misery that winter. The December '75 storm was a great one for Boston, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yeah I don't think you have a big reason to change it right now. December climo isn't worth much anyway at DCA...and if getting a horrendous December pattern helps make for the timing of a flip to occur in January, then that might actually help DCA versus getting a "favorable" December pattern and then flipping to a torch in January like 2005-2006. I don't think I'd adjust significantly downward until we saw strong signs that a January flip won't happen or it will be very late January...by then the clock is starting to tick. precisely but that is too rational....no matter how much the evidence suggests we shouldn't be anywhere near the ledge, the only thing that really gets us off it is snow...palpable, tangible accumulating snow....I had 5 accumulating snowfall events at this point in 2005 so I didn't care as much when the pattern flipped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The December '75 storm was a great one for Boston, right? Yes, it was actually officially 2 events though on Dec 20-22, but they were like 12 hours apart. It gave BOS like 18.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 From a multi-region standpoint, '75-'76 would prob be tougher for snow enthusiasts in DC...New England got hit pretty good that winter, particularly in December 1975 and January 1976, Feb was a furnace. At least in '01-'02, it was horrendous in the entire Northeast. Everyone shared misery that winter. And BTW, I lived in the Boston area during the worst possible 4-year stretch in the last 20 years- from 98-02. Only '00/'01 went above average, but barely, and the March '01 storm was a letdown in the Boston itself. The gradient was amazing for that storm once you got past SE Middlesex County. I loved how the fluffy December snow in '01 that didn't stick to any of the roads ended up being the biggest snow that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 precisely but that is too rational....no matter how much the evidence suggests we shouldn't be anywhere near the ledge, the only thing that really gets us off it is snow...palpable, tangible accumulating snow....I had 5 accumulating snowfall events at this point in 2005 so I didn't care as much when the pattern flipped Yeah Dec 2005 was active, but your climo def limited you on how much you could cash in that month...if that pattern happened in January that winter, you probably would have seen 2-3x as much snow. What we don't want is a flip to good blocking but remaining cold and dry...its a crap shoot often when it comes to that in a Nina with a lack of STJ. We could just get skunked like Jan 1985...still a good month, esp for DCA...but it probably underperformed quite a bit based on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yeah Dec 2005 was active, but your climo def limited you on how much you could cash in that month...if that pattern happened in January that winter, you probably would have seen 2-3x as much snow. What we don't want is a flip to good blocking but remaining cold and dry...its a crap shoot often when it comes to that in a Nina with a lack of STJ. We could just get skunked like Jan 1985...still a good month, esp for DCA...but it probably underperformed quite a bit based on the pattern. LOL-- that's the thing with our area, though. Jan '85 was a great month, underperforming or not. In any given winter, if you can get a single month to hit 10" at DCA, we would take it in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 LOL-- that's the thing with our area, though. Jan '85 was a great month, underperforming or not. In any given winter, if you can get a single month to hit 10" at DCA, we would take it in a heartbeat. Yeah in an absolute sense it was a great month..cold and well above avg snow for DCA....but it was the type of longwave pattern where DCA might typically put up a 17 spot or something, or even more...def one of those rare types of almost perfect blocking setups. They don't come along very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 nobody is giving up, but I don't think there was as much angst in 2004 and 2006.....maybe because they were ninos...maybe because there was no OCT 29th and maybe because SNE is snowless and +1000 on the month....we have to let this winter play out....but I think until something positive comes to fruition, the ghost of 2001-02 always lingers in the back of our minds when the vodka cold and pattern change was always just around the corner..I think both me and you will be on the board with at least one event over 1" by January 15th....and if we aren't what can we do?....I'll probably chase if this winter completely sh-its the bed, but as far as our backyard we are powerless.. I guess what I mean is, nothing should be off the table at this point I am not blind to the fact that this winter has a very low possibility of turning out to be a 95/96 or 09/10, but late blooming years (most, for different reasons) like 86/87, 92/93, 98/99, 99/00, 04/05, and 06/07 to some extent, are all on the table imho due to weak/mod NINA and yes, E QBO I believe the solar output has been our problem so far and, so long as the sun cooperates, we have a decent shot at normal/AN snows again, my focus is on snow and not temps; we can be AN temps, but if we get decent snow, I don't care about temps (otoh, we rarely get AN snow with AN temps, but whatever) so, call it experience ( OK, my age) or patience, I'm no where near to throwing in the towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm trying to decide what's worse- an 01/02 or 75/76. At least 01/02 was terrible for everybody here. 75/76-- small snows every month, wait and wait until you get to March, and then you get the killer gradient storm with 6" in the suburbs but less than an inch at DCA. i'd take 75-76...even for a cold month the pattern was terrible in January but the cold at least gave us a shot.....I think the 2.2" at DCA is an outlier even given the pattern and that the same winter over again would be 6-8" at DCA and 12-16" in the burbs....2001-02 we had no chance...it's 62 at DCA right now...this is getting officially annoying...on 1/30/2002 I accepted that we would not have a winter that season....i'm not throwing in the towel....but this pattern is vile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I guess what I mean is, nothing should be off the table at this point I am not blind to the fact that this winter has a very low possibility of turning out to be a 95/96 or 09/10, but late blooming years (most, for different reasons) like 86/87, 92/93, 98/99, 99/00, 04/05, and 06/07 to some extent, are all on the table imho due to weak/mod NINA and yes, E QBO I believe the solar output has been our problem so far and, so long as the sun cooperates, we have a decent shot at normal/AN snows again, my focus is on snow and not temps; we can be AN temps, but if we get decent snow, I don't care about temps (otoh, we rarely get AN snow with AN temps, but whatever) so, call it experience ( OK, my age) or patience, I'm no where near to throwing in the towel me neither...not close at all but I'd like a FG before halftime just to get on the scoreboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I guess what I mean is, nothing should be off the table at this point I am not blind to the fact that this winter has a very low possibility of turning out to be a 95/96 or 09/10, but late blooming years (most, for different reasons) like 86/87, 92/93, 98/99, 99/00, 04/05, and 06/07 to some extent, are all on the table imho due to weak/mod NINA and yes, E QBO I believe the solar output has been our problem so far and, so long as the sun cooperates, we have a decent shot at normal/AN snows again, my focus is on snow and not temps; we can be AN temps, but if we get decent snow, I don't care about temps (otoh, we rarely get AN snow with AN temps, but whatever) so, call it experience ( OK, my age) or patience, I'm no where near to throwing in the towel And five of your six listed late-start seasons were in the 10-15" range at DCA, which lines up exactly with Matt's expectations. Only '86/'87 was a good winter, but that took on a classic Nino look for our area, starting with the New Years storm. I guess most of us are on the same page, but just framing it a different way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yeah Dec 2005 was active, but your climo def limited you on how much you could cash in that month...if that pattern happened in January that winter, you probably would have seen 2-3x as much snow. What we don't want is a flip to good blocking but remaining cold and dry...its a crap shoot often when it comes to that in a Nina with a lack of STJ. We could just get skunked like Jan 1985...still a good month, esp for DCA...but it probably underperformed quite a bit based on the pattern. Why does there seem to be alot of energy and closed lows sliding through the SW this year? I lived in CO rockies through the 90's and Nina's always meant good early season snow in the northern part of the state and the opposite with Nino's. Not happening like that this year. The central and northern rockies aren't doing well at all right now but the SW part of CO is doing very well. Wolf Creek in the sw portion of CO has already had 186" of snow and Breckenridge in the north central mountains has had about 65". This is the exact opposite of what you would expect in a Nina. The only reason why I bring this up is because it is anomalous and if it keeps up it would increase the EC's chances at a decent phaser IF we ever get some blocking in place. I discussed this with zwts in a thread a while back and he made a very valid point than energy coming out of the sw and travelling along the gulf states is more prone to shear out in a Nina. It does have my interest because if we want to see a big storm in a Nina, we would need some sort of phase with split flow because the stj will likely be quiet. A well timed 500mb low coming out of the sw phasing with a ns vort diving out of canada could give us all a decent hit if we can crank a -nao at some point. We got close a couple times last year but it was a bunch of swings and misses for us down here. Miller B's aren't going to do it for us. We need the 500 and 850 low to track to our south or we end up with a bunch of MA weenies on the ledge (including me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 great disco guys at this point i would just be happy with a 25 degree night to make snow, or a frz rain/sleet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 me neither...not close at all but I'd like a FG before halftime just to get on the scoreboard if we do, it'll be on an interception, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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