BethesdaWX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Guess I'm the odd one out, not that itsworth much here but I'm personally sold on the idea that we all end up with well above average snowfall, resulting from powerful coastals later in the winter. Pattern stinks bad now w/ the MJO in the circle of hell over those warm SSTAs back east, but all supplies in chaos+constant change are finite..this regime won't be able to last into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I will take that in a heartbeat, that would probably put me in the 17-21 inch range. Go Niners, i need you to win. wont make any difference, ravens are too inconsistent to win on the road, let alone the bowl. They are not a superbowl team. San Diego proved that point beyond a doubt. Flacco can't figure out how to score points if the coacnhing staff can't make adjustments. Sunday was an embarrassment. Suggs should just shut his mouth until they win out. Otherwise , he's running his mouth and can't back it up. GFS looses storm again. What the heck. Rellying on this model leaves a great deal to be disired. US models always leave a great deal to be diesired. edit "" whoa, 49ers beat steelers 20-3 , ravens may get a bye after all. You never know. I thought steelers would bring A game. Guess not. Ravens lucky this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 My seasonal snow guess should have been lower. Hoping for Dec climo snow was foolish given how the atmosphere wanted to act since Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Our December climo snow is so low that not hitting it doesn't make much difference. I'm convinced the pattern will break and we'll get some cold and blocking later in the season (perhaps into March) and we make up the deficit. Of course, I have nothing to back it up iother than hunch...which is why this is in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS doesn't like the pattern after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I still think many are pulling the plug too early this year to, at least, an average snowfall winter we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corrie Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You should see the posts from people on the mid-atlantic skiing forum....they are all getting ready for mass suicides at this point. Even Wisp which usually gets some good snow by this time of year is looking awfully green... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The Euro and GFS ensemble means for the longwave pattern in the long range don't look QUITE as bad as yesterday's runs. More like what we have now with weak +PNA and big +AO, +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I still think many are pulling the plug too early this year to, at least, an average snowfall winter we'll see I'm not all down on the winter but I've almost pulled the plug on the chances of sustained cold and blocking. Unfortunately I did alot of analysis on the major indexes through the last 50-60 years and there's a pretty clear signal that this winter won't have any long periods of -ao/nao. There was only one exception and that was 79-80. 14 others with a similar nov-dec ended warm. Snow on the other hand shouldn't be a big bust. I'll stick with my earlier call of 15"+/- @ DCA but that is probably too high. I'm a weenie though so who cares what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS doesn't like the pattern after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This winter is never to get started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 So far all I can gather from this winter is that we will need everything working in our favor for a shot at snow. Pattern will need to change, storm track will need to change(not much) and then we can start to watch for what may be coming. Until Pac, Alt and MJO get it's act together all this rain watching is getting tedious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Dear Jesus the people on this board...it's like drunks sitting around at an AA meeting trying to be the person who sounds the most sincere and eager when they proclaim they don't need a drink. Fukc that...I'm a drunk...pass the damn rum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This winter is never to get started. maybe may will be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Glass half full: if the cfs is right then it is good news for the polar ice situation AND my wallet will be a little fatter from low heating bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Dear Jesus the people on this board...it's like drunks sitting around at an AA meeting trying to be the person who sounds the most sincere and eager when they proclaim they don't need a drink. Fukc that...I'm a drunk...pass the damn rum. we just need snow! before we all go crazy and kill each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 lol EDIT: I wish people would think for two seconds and figure out if their post is even worth making before writing it. We don't need to hear every one of your thoughts. [/complaining] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 lol EDIT: I wish people would think for two seconds and figure out if their post is even worth making before writing it. We don't need to hear every one of your thoughts. [/complaining] So does this mean you laughed at my post and then decided you didn't like it? Well, here's another thought that just popped into my head and I want to instantly share with the world: Aren't the weenie meltdowns supposed to happen when the Euro DOESN'T show snow? Shouldn't there be mass rejoicing that it does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If I don't get warned at least once this week, it will be miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Everyone should probobly cool down and remember the models have no effect on the storm whatsoever. The Euro could show 3 feet or rain before a rainstorm, and it will still rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 i dont really like red sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 sucks for west virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Everyone should probobly cool down and remember the models have no effect on the storm whatsoever. The Euro could show 3 feet or rain before a rainstorm, and it will still rain. Thanks, I never thought to look at it that way before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 So does this mean you laughed at my post and then decided you didn't like it? Well, here's another thought that just popped into my head and I want to instantly share with the world: Aren't the weenie meltdowns supposed to happen when the Euro DOESN'T show snow? Shouldn't there be mass rejoicing that it does? I was lol'ing at the whole subforum, especially at what's been posted the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 i dont really like red sauce How about brown sauce? Or salad cream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm finding the discussion about the 24th-28th confusing (if intriguing) because I'm not at all invested due to my heading out for vacation tomorrow. GFS v Euro? I honestly have no idea what's going in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 So far all I can gather from this winter is that we will need everything working in our favor for a shot at snow. Pattern will need to change, storm track will need to change(not much) and then we can start to watch for what may be coming. Until Pac, Alt and MJO get it's act together all this rain watching is getting tedious MJO should progress imo but it's another 3-4 weeks of hell, state of tropical upward motion is finite in all regards. Pattern changing storm in ~ 20-25 days, February will be sexy. I'd bet 150k on it, method used isn't typically considered "safe" but it'll work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Pretty sure we're at or ahead of last yrs total right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Pretty sure we're at or ahead of last yrs total right now? Total what? Snow? Nope. This looks particularly awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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