Scuddz Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I think so. I'd say on the whole CWG likes warm unless it's going to snow. There are a relative few who proclaim their love of cold at least. I guess we're almost a southern city so not totally nuts but it's cold here every winter. A-Hem... I'd love nothing better than a week of clear skies and teens for highs. It's invigorating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 A-Hem... I'd love nothing better than a week of clear skies and teens for highs. It's invigorating. ok, so you go on the weirdo list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 ok, so you go on the weirdo list. A-thankyou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 A-Hem... I'd love nothing better than a week of clear skies and teens for highs. It's invigorating. Put 6-8" of snow on the ground first and then I would be down with this hardcore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phils1 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Stratospheric warming events can take many weeks to evolve from the initial warming near the pole to an actual temperature pattern flip in the continental US. The latest detailed video at "The SI Weather.com" describes the 1998-1999 and 1984-1985 stratospheric warming events and how they both evolved over many weeks from November to January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Stratospheric warming events can take many weeks to evolve from the initial warming near the pole to an actual temperature pattern flip in the continental US. The latest detailed video at "The SI Weather.com" describes the 1998-1999 and 1984-1985 stratospheric warming events and how they both evolved over many weeks from November to January. You plug your website in every post you make, you should start having to pay an advertising fee if you do not donate here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 ok, so you go on the weirdo list. Add me to the weirdo list, if it is not going to snow at least let it be in the teens for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 You plug your website in every post you make, you should start having to pay an advertising fee if you do not donate here. True that. Maybe force him over to the Weather Marketplace forum like FreshAJ? I can't pay attention to a 10 minute weather discussion on youtube telling me things I've already read on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 True that. Maybe force him over to the Weather Marketplace forum like FreshAJ? I can't pay attention to a 10 minute weather discussion on youtube telling me things I've already read on the forum. Totally agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 With the caveat that I am a longtime contributor and that I pimp out the site constantly as the best weather source out there, how long do we have to tolerate CWG's warminista pandering?...It is getting really old...it is December 16th....yesterday was a +13....today is a +10....this weekend might actually be climatologically normal for a 2 day stretch...there is no reason to apologize for that and encourage winter haters to keep complaining...There is no shame in liking snow and cold...it should not have to be accompanied by apologies....ever the realities of politics when you come down to it ( it is D.C.) sux to be the average person who likes snow nothing personal to anyone on this Board who contributes, but if it wasn't for the links from this Board, I would never (and I mean never) look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I guess what I mean is, nothing should be off the table at this point I am not blind to the fact that this winter has a very low possibility of turning out to be a 95/96 or 09/10, but late blooming years (most, for different reasons) like 86/87, 92/93, 98/99, 99/00, 04/05, and 06/07 to some extent, are all on the table imho due to weak/mod NINA and yes, E QBO I believe the solar output has been our problem so far and, so long as the sun cooperates, we have a decent shot at normal/AN snows again, my focus is on snow and not temps; we can be AN temps, but if we get decent snow, I don't care about temps (otoh, we rarely get AN snow with AN temps, but whatever) so, call it experience ( OK, my age) or patience, I'm no where near to throwing in the towel The Sun and the fact that the QBO in the low levels is still westerly which matters more to us in my opinion. I think we'll have something to track late month, but late January and February has always been my bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The Sun and the fact that the QBO in the low levels is still westerly which matters more to us in my opinion. I think we'll have something to track late month, but late January and February has always been my bet the sun has finally calmed down http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html we still have a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 really?....Wes's articles are excellent...Ian often contributes great content as well as some others....and as far as a forecast I think they are the best..especially WRT more iinteresting rain, snow, severe events etc...If I have been offline for 6 hours and I want to get the latest on an event, that is the 1st place I am going 100% of the time because it is compiled of talented people doing consensus, probabilistic forecasting and all the latest guidance and trends are going to be summarized and fleshed out for me...over time, they are almost always going to out forecast every other entity....in terms of discussion this place is better...they have a broader audience.... But as far as snow and cold, yes....the public if not overwhelmingly, as a majority dislikes cold and snow and CWG is going to pander to the majority....I think the pandering goes overboard a lot of the time, but they have a responsibility to generate page views, hits so there is going to be some "selling out" involved.....it is just excessive is some cases I just don't go there...sorry I'm a weenie, I know where to go for reality....I know where to go for fantasy....and I can make my own forecasts, so maybe that's what it comes down to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The Sun and the fact that the QBO in the low levels is still westerly which matters more to us in my opinion. I think we'll have something to track late month, but late January and February has always been my bet The low level +QBO is by far the more important driver in the equatorial stratosphere here. If you remember my thread about the westerly QBO and La Nina, the composites were overall for DJFM. When looking solely at December, you will notice that most of the years listed had lower solar flux than 2011. The only year that didn't was 1999. Taking into account all years, the analogs that had a solar peak (number doesn't matter) in Nov/Dec all had a warm signal for December. It seemed like, depending on the lower QBO phase, the warmth was positioned differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 i may bookmark your post just in case. but coming from you that is meaningful for sure. then again we got so little snow last winter it would not be that hard... Agreed that the statement is sort of insignificant for the immediate DC area. The thing you folks in the Mid-Atlantic should be noticing and excited about is the El Nino-like touch to the pattern. The summer-like, delayed winter, in the Tropical Latitudes is part of the recent solar peak and downwelling westerly QBO. This has produced the enhanced convection north of the Equator in the Central Pacific and enhanced the STJ (some of y'all were too quick to pick on Okie back in the autumn). I also believe this is why the MJO has been more coherent than in some other La Ninas. Many believed the MJO would be dead this year because of the QBO but I am arguing quite the opposite. Anyway, these are all things that could support an El Nino-like setup for the Mid Atlantic at some point mid-winter and possibly bring a better setup for a snowstorm. The window would likely be late Jan-early Feb (climo a major factor here along with the gradual shift in the global regime). But I still like some dates before that window for some potential accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I could honestly care less about nina. If we can somehow get a -AO in January and/or February, we have a decent shot to get above average snowfall. Norfolk and Jersey did quite well in last years nina when the AO was negative. We were just a tad unlucky in the immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Winter could be a bust this year, but we still have plenty of time for things to change. I see already on the 15 day a potential for winter weather in dc around the 29-30 of December. That to me is a sign that things could be changing. I know you can not count on anything that far out, but seeing that makes me have just a little hope for our future. I think to myself that we all thought winter was coming early with the halloween weekend storm and getting screwed for the most part in my area. " I THINK WEATHER IS MAGIC TO ME AND WHEN A MAGIC SHOW ALWAYS STARTS OFF SLOW AND ALWAYS FOR THE MOST FINISHES WITH A BIG BANG" Patience to all the magic of winter has started and we have a ways to goes before the finally bang. Remember that everyone. We will get our real snows at the end of Jan and Feb. Weather is a phenomenon just like magic in the sky. Early start with a major trick up mother natures sleeve means a great finish in my book. Also does anyone remember the song Ice Ice baby. Well that will be the major factor to our magic show during this winter with a bang to go out on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The low level +QBO is by far the more important driver in the equatorial stratosphere here. If you remember my thread about the westerly QBO and La Nina, the composites were overall for DJFM. When looking solely at December, you will notice that most of the years listed had lower solar flux than 2011. The only year that didn't was 1999. Taking into account all years, the analogs that had a solar peak (number doesn't matter) in Nov/Dec all had a warm signal for December. It seemed like, depending on the lower QBO phase, the warmth was positioned differently. Thanks, I learn alot from your posts. I'm wondering about a few things my bro told me regarding this year's best analogs, and QBO matches. He found that this winter being the year of/shortly before the Sun's magnetic field flip, that the best analogs for this winter ironically also feature a flip...they include 1967/68, 1978/79, 1988/89 and 1999/00 which have all been coming up constantly. And also foud that a large majority of mixed QBO signal years occur during a weak and/or flipping interplanetary magnetic field. I find this too much to be coincidence and am wondering if there is something to all this maybe you know of? He also found correlation to ENSO, the PDO, AMO and the Global temp, to the Geomag flux/AP index, and the Interplanetary magnetif field direction and strength. The 2009/10 El Nino signal shows up amazingly well in the AP index in 2003/04. December 1967 looks much like what we have seen to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 yes...because it was La Nina and La Nina is not good for us Ugh. The point was that it was very good for a lot of places where "nina" is typically not good. It wasn't nina that put a snow hole over northern VA last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Ugh. The point was that it was very good for a lot of places where "nina" is typically not good. It wasn't nina that put a snow hole over northern VA last year. Well it kind of was the La Nina, they weren't STJ oriented systems, they jumped to the coast from a northern stream source region and "skipped" over us as they energy transfer occured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Ugh. The point was that it was very good for a lot of places where "nina" is typically not good. It wasn't nina that put a snow hole over northern VA last year. Nina is less hostile for snow the further north you go. And places like far SE VA and NC really don't have heavy Nino/Nina splits like DC/BWI do. Their temps are affected, but their snow climo is low enough that it doesn't really show up...they can get some of those fast moving storms in a Nina that miss wide right. DC is a bit unique in that its tucked a bit west but still south enough that some more specific parameters are needed for above avg snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Nina is less hostile for snow the further north you go. And places like far SE VA and NC really don't have heavy Nino/Nina splits like DC/BWI do. Their temps are affected, but their snow climo is low enough that it doesn't really show up...they can get some of those fast moving storms in a Nina that miss wide right. DC is a bit unique in that its tucked a bit west but still south enough that some more specific parameters are needed for above avg snow. That may be true, but it was an odd occurrence where folks to our north east south and west faired better then the immediate local. That's why I think it's an over generalization to say we underperformed because of nina. In fact 7/21 (33%) ninas were better than average here at DCA, and given we only overperform 41% of the time in non-ninas, I see the nina only hurting our chances 8%, while we have 0 examples of overperforming winters when Dec/Jan/Feb were all +AO. So, basically what I'm saying is the state of the AO is much more important for our location than the nina, at least in a statistical sense. Not that it matters at this point since there is no sign of a -AO in the foreseeable future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim_in_CA Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 A-thankyou I'm with you as well. I'd rather cold than warm in the winter, snow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Don S said that he expects this winter to be in the bottom 20% as far as East coast cities getting snow. That would mean BWI gets less than 11" for the season, and DCA, 8" or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Don S said that he expects this winter to be in the bottom 20% as far as East coast cities getting snow. That would mean BWI gets less than 11" for the season, and DCA, 8" or less. I don't know whether I'm that bearish but think the overall pattern does stink and that the AO index in Jan probably will average on the positive side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think I will bust high with my prediction of 14.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 he's too bearish down here imo....it's DEC 19th Don S is an excellent poster, but I think 40N cancelling winter in the next 2-4 weeks will become a theme....When you have averaged 800% of normal for the last 5 years it is easy to make bold statements about the entire east coast.... our climo sucks....so getting there isn't that hard...I still think the o/u for DCA/BWI are higher than those numbers.... I think any blanket statements about winter down here before 3rd week of January are silly....and even then we could get a March 99, or March 2009 or Feb 1986 or Feb 1972 or March 1976 or March 84 or Feb 2006 or Feb 2001...... the opinion of people from 40N on our winter doesn't mean much to me.... If I were to guess now I'd say somewhere in the 8-12 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If I were to guess now I'd say somewhere in the 8-12 inch range. Which would put me in the 2-4" at the most. My climo sucks worse than ya'll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If I were to guess now I'd say somewhere in the 8-12 inch range. I will take that in a heartbeat, that would probably put me in the 17-21 inch range. Go Niners, i need you to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If I were to guess now I'd say somewhere in the 8-12 inch range. As long as it isn't overly cold in getting there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.