gymengineer Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 So you're saying it will snow eventually? ..at the risk of Matt telling me to go away. Ian, can you repost that excel sheet you had of the # of 1"+ snowfall days, number of 1"+ snow depth days, and number of T snow depth days for every DC winter? Maybe post it in Matt's thread about all the 1" events since 2004? I searched for your post with that chart on here, but couldn't find it. Was it created back when Eastern was still running? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Ian, can you repost that excel sheet you had of the # of 1"+ snowfall days, number of 1"+ snow depth days, and number of T snow depth days for every DC winter? Maybe post it in Matt's thread about all the 1" events since 2004? I searched for your post with that chart on here, but couldn't find it. Was it created back when Eastern was still running? Thanks in advance. sure, ill post it later when i get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 sure, ill post it later when i get home. You actually have a job, i thought this was your full time job . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 You actually have a job, i thought this was your full time job . working at a think tank ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 working at a think tank ftw. I have to get a job there. I own my own business so i set my own hours, but i would much rather have your gig . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I have to get a job there. I own my own business so i set my own hours, but i would much rather have your gig . i guess you havent seen my paycheck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 i guess you havent seen my paycheck... Lol good point, i guess i will keep mine. Working at a think tank FTL . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 to me a lot of the long range ideas are still pretty nebulous even with people who actually understand them. i've generally always been of the mind that there are greatly diminishing returns in accuracy every step you get away from d1-3. not to say it's not worth talking about at all, but i've seen plenty of talk of pattern changes that don't happen when expected. but yeah, i'd be shocked if we make it through the whole winter with no serious cold outbreak and at least one or two solid storm risks mixed in with a few nickle and dimers. i dont think it's a particularly amazing sign that people are focusing so heavily on 10hpa warming. i can't even remember that ever being a big topic of discussion before. im not going to say it's not valid but lotsa reaching going on because all the other usual signs are generally terrible for probably another 2-4 weeks if not longer. yeah, it'll snow at some point.. probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 you think we're about to get into a good pattern? im much more a persistence forecaster.. sure it breaks eventually but i want multiple signs screaming at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 This stratospheric warming thing is complete nonsense. The current / upcoming events are basically telling us that we have finally moved into a winter-like state where we have wave amplitude from the troposphere. There is a reason these things are called "Mid-Winter Warming" events; they don't occur this time of year! Canadian warmings/sudden warmings can occur this early but they certainly won't reverse the winds. Downwelling stratospheric warming events are very rare and are way overrated in terms of the Arctic Oscillation's state. They of course can be very important but I think people are overlooking the more important things going on right now. All the matters is that the wave 1 amplitudes are up and that will help out substantially. I've been trying to talk it down as the EP flux isn't directed correctly even if the winds reversed though maybe that would change. I do think there is a decent chance at a temporary pattern break in the 2 or 3rd week of Jan but don't think it would be permanent as my guess is that for the month the AO will average positive but that's a wag based strictly on stats. I don't see much snow potential before the end of the month though the positive looking PNA that develops on the progs certainly is better than a negative one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 you think we're about to get into a good pattern? im much more a persistence forecaster.. sure it breaks eventually but i want multiple signs screaming at me. no...I think even those who are optimistic think a real serviceable pattern is weeks away....climo is getting on our side soon though....if we can a decent ridge in the west we can get a modest event or 2....I don't need a KU...I'd take a 2-4" event gladly.....I think for a lot of us pattern change is really just a euphemism for a block....if not over Greenland than at least over Iceland...or at least some ridging...some sort of positive height anomaly....and yes...working without a -NAO is an uphill battle for us...Wes has shown that repeatedly....but there are ways out of this pattern I think that don't involve a classic -NAO.....I've been pretty meh about the "events" this weekend because they will probably amount to nothing, but nobody in our region should be punting any legit snow threats...even of the 0.10" QPF variety..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I've been trying to talk it down as the EP flux isn't directed correctly even if the winds reversed though maybe that would change. I do think there is a decent chance at a temporary pattern break in the 2 or 3rd week of Jan but don't think it would be permanent as my guess is that for the month the AO will average positive but that's a wag based strictly on stats. I don't see much snow potential before the end of the month though the positive looking PNA that develops on the progs certainly is better than a negative one. Yes, agreed. This is one of many warmings that will begin with amplified waves upwelling through January. Ultimately, this will lead to a MMW potentially mid-late January. However, for predictability, this may not be helpful for our backyards. I think tropospheric blocking that develops in January will be the driver in a pattern switch, which will not come from some strong downwelling warming. The development of the E PAC / Alaskan ridge is going to be a big deal mid-winter as wavelengths expand. This will keep the eastern states cooler than it has been. Also, this sets up cyclones to break off the East Coast / eastern states which will likely pop a tropospheric block ~ Jan 10th over the N. Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 no...I think even those who are optimistic think a real serviceable pattern is weeks away....climo is getting on our side soon though....if we can a decent ridge in the west we can get a modest event or 2....I don't need a KU...I'd take a 2-4" event gladly.....I think for a lot of us pattern change is really just a euphemism for a block....if not over Greenland than at least over Iceland...or at least some ridging...some sort of positive height anomaly....and yes...working without a -NAO is an uphill battle for us...Wes has shown that repeatedly....but there are ways out of this pattern I think that don't involve a classic -NAO.....I've been pretty meh about the "events" this weekend because they will probably amount to nothing, but nobody in our region should be punting any legit snow threats...even of the 0.10" QPF variety..... yeah agreed i was mostly saying that some of the stuff on the main forum seems hopeful over realistic. im much more apt to believe a d10 prog that looks like today than the idea that once we get there it will be different because of some stratospheric warming or something. now i dont think anyone is really arguing that per se but "when in XX stay with XX" is a good philosophy a lot. i certainly won't be the first to catch a major change but i'll know how to recognize it once it's within 1-2 weeks etc. and yeah we've gotta get some at least puny event/s without a perfect setup. i think everyone realizes this is not going to be a great winter unless we get super duper lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 i guess it's one level of the stratosphere.. people are looking for warming because it signals cold eventually. http://www.americanw...ent-on-the-way/ and yeah the long rangers have to believe their profession is meaningfull... Just for the record, and I don't know if this was directed at me or not (I know Katie's post was), I haven't been hyping 10mb warmings to Katie. At all. My mid-Jan guess has more to do with the tropics than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 yeah agreed i was mostly saying that some of the stuff on the main forum seems hopeful over realistic. im much more apt to believe a d10 prog that looks like today than the idea that once we get there it will be different because of some stratospheric warming or something. now i dont think anyone is really arguing that per se but "when in XX stay with XX" is a good philosophy a lot. i certainly won't be the first to catch a major change but i'll know how to recognize it once it's within 1-2 weeks etc. and yeah we've gotta get some at least puny event/s without a perfect setup. i think everyone realizes this is not going to be a great winter unless we get super duper lucky. Just for the record (and this could be really stupid), I think DC sees more snow than last year. I can't say the whole Mid-Atlantic because I know many places around DC did well last year; however, I feel there will be a few decent hits coming. The first real strong signal for DC was near January 10th (weaker events are possible beforehand but I mean first potential at a decent snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Just for the record (and this could be really stupid), I think DC sees more snow than last year. I can't say the whole Mid-Atlantic because I know many places around DC did well last year; however, I feel there will be a few decent hits coming. The first real strong signal for DC was near January 10th (weaker events are possible beforehand but I mean first potential at a decent snow). not much skill involved but day 11 ensembles in Wes's other thread kind of suggest a legit event around or before that time.....plus you have been hammering that period for months...I know ORH has liked it as well going back a while...I wonder if we will have any serviceable blocking by then or maybe we will have to rely on a big +PNA window as you suggested before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 not much skill involved but day 11 ensembles in Wes's other thread kind of suggest a legit event around or before that time.....plus you have been hammering that period for months...I know ORH has liked it as well going back a while...I wonder if we will have any serviceable blocking by then or maybe we will have to rely on a big +PNA window as you suggested before The sun's slow decline will likely reach levels supportive of a -NAO by that time; but more reliably, I think the tropical forcing gets away from that horrible positioning (ph. 4-6) and allows a drop in the NAO. My stratospheric signals back in the autumn were the main reason I liked that date and I am glad to see it is still holding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 FWIW, The weeklies continued the theme of se ridging through the period, but they gradually build the Aleutian ridge as we get into January. Perhaps this is due to Nina climo and the battering of MT events and warming in the Stratosphere over this region. They have a pretty strong +AO through the period....almost Dec '07 like with confluence in se Canada. The trend of flattening the ridge in the Aleutians as we get closer is concerning, but I guess sooner or later..we'll see that ridge build. Also, the PNA appears to want to go + and believe it or not...the EC has busted too low with it. I remember some thoughts from a few people of the persist transient -EPO ridge just west of NAMR and that might be related to the model busting too low. Either way, the AO has overpowered everything...but I thought I'd share this with you guys. I think we may be well into Jan before any sig changes in the AO region, but with any luck..we can get the PV to weaken a bit as we head through the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 no...I think even those who are optimistic think a real serviceable pattern is weeks away....climo is getting on our side soon though....if we can a decent ridge in the west we can get a modest event or 2....I don't need a KU...I'd take a 2-4" event gladly.....I think for a lot of us pattern change is really just a euphemism for a block....if not over Greenland than at least over Iceland...or at least some ridging...some sort of positive height anomaly....and yes...working without a -NAO is an uphill battle for us...Wes has shown that repeatedly....but there are ways out of this pattern I think that don't involve a classic -NAO.....I've been pretty meh about the "events" this weekend because they will probably amount to nothing, but nobody in our region should be punting any legit snow threats...even of the 0.10" QPF variety..... Yup, we usually get lucky once or twice a winter-- like a clipper that overperforms (e.g. 12/5/07, although the January storm that winter was pretty lucky too given the pattern)-- no matter the ENSO state. Other than 01/02, even during a Nina, we have multiple shots at modest snow. And since this winter does have cold air available, I am fine knowing that we'll probably get the usual mix of 1" clippers with a couple of 2-4" or 3-5" events. I know this has been pointed out time and time again: The only thing that distinguishes a 6-10" Nina winter from a 16" one is that one freak 8-12" storm (12/70, 12/73, 3/99, 1/00, etc.) where somehow it's raining in New England while it's snowing here or the snow doesn't even make it up to them. We obviously can't bank on that happening, but I'm ok with the 8" "floor" that these seasons have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The sun's slow decline will likely reach levels supportive of a -NAO by that time; but more reliably, I think the tropical forcing gets away from that horrible positioning (ph. 4-6) and allows a drop in the NAO. My stratospheric signals back in the autumn were the main reason I liked that date and I am glad to see it is still holding up. I just saw we are stuck in the circle of death in phase 5....i kind of don't mind...a few weeks back I thought we might be in phases 7-1 by now but i don't mind they are delayed assuming the MJO gets healthy again and can have an impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 FWIW, The weeklies continued the theme of se ridging through the period, but they gradually build the Aleutian ridge as we get into January. Perhaps this is due to Nina climo and the battering of MT events and warming in the Stratosphere over this region. They have a pretty strong +AO through the period....almost Dec '07 like with confluence in se Canada. The trend of flattening the ridge in the Aleutians as we get closer is concerning, but I guess sooner or later..we'll see that ridge build. Also, the PNA appears to want to go + and believe it or not...the EC has busted too low with it. I remember some thoughts from a few people of the persist transient -EPO ridge just west of NAMR and that might be related to the model busting too low. Either way, the AO has overpowered everything...but I thought I'd share this with you guys. I think we may be well into Jan before any sig changes in the AO region, but with any luck..we can get the PV to weaken a bit as we head through the month. I think that is more beneficial to you guys and would flip the reverse temp gradient we have had this month but that still suggests a storm track to our north and west without other help.....Dec 2007, we were frequently in the 50s and 60s while you were getting raked every other day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Just for the record, and I don't know if this was directed at me or not (I know Katie's post was), I haven't been hyping 10mb warmings to Katie. At all. My mid-Jan guess has more to do with the tropics than anything else. not in particular though i figured she was talking about you. i just know the long rangers can be defensive when i say it's like looking into a crystal ball -- i guess it's trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Just for the record (and this could be really stupid), I think DC sees more snow than last year. I can't say the whole Mid-Atlantic because I know many places around DC did well last year; however, I feel there will be a few decent hits coming. The first real strong signal for DC was near January 10th (weaker events are possible beforehand but I mean first potential at a decent snow). i may bookmark your post just in case. but coming from you that is meaningful for sure. then again we got so little snow last winter it would not be that hard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I think that is more beneficial to you guys and would flip the reverse temp gradient we have had this month but that still suggests a storm track to our north and west without other help.....Dec 2007, we were frequently in the 50s and 60s while you were getting raked every other day.... Oh I know...I just wanted to let you guys know what they showed. Not trying to pour salt on the wound or anything. Hopefully the ensembles are right and we get the PNA to flip + just after Christmas. As of now, you and I are in the same boat for a while to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yup, we usually get lucky once or twice a winter-- like a clipper that overperforms (e.g. 12/5/07, although the January storm that winter was pretty lucky too given the pattern)-- no matter the ENSO state. Other than 01/02, even during a Nina, we have multiple shots at modest snow. And since this winter does have cold air available, I am fine knowing that we'll probably get the usual mix of 1" clippers with a couple of 2-4" or 3-5" events. I know this has been pointed out time and time again: The only thing that distinguishes a 6-10" Nina winter from a 16" one is that one freak 8-12" storm (12/70, 12/73, 3/99, 1/00, etc.) where somehow it's raining in New England while it's snowing here or the snow doesn't even make it up to them. We obviously can't bank on that happening, but I'm ok with the 8" "floor" that these seasons have shown. I went 11.4" in the CWG contest for DCA...I wouldn't change a thing...even if we have a "bad" pattern into January, I'd prefer cold air to be close enough by that we might be able to back into an event or 2 based on some transient pattern adjustment and shortwave help.....if we can keep the departure at +2 or colder I think we'll have some shots....In JAN 2006/2007 we really never had a chance...we did get snow in late Jan 2007 but only after the pattern flipped...I'm pretty sure we aren't getting a -7 February in a NIna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I like 30th of January for any possible signifigant event. It may leave DC snowless but I am calling (guessing) for a signifigant event Major weather events December 26 2010 January 26 2011 April 27 2011 August 28 2011 October 29th 2011 January 30 2012 ? It may fit this pattern which I am mostly imagining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 not in particular though i figured she was talking about you. i just know the long rangers can be defensive when i say it's like looking into a crystal ball -- i guess it's trolling. It's okay, I was trolling him too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 i may bookmark your post just in case. but coming from you that is meaningful for sure. then again we got so little snow last winter it would not be that hard... it was an awful winter in that almost every single event underperformed except 1/26...but I would gladly lock in the over right now....given that we are "probably" punting December (at least the 1st 3 weeks), I'd take >10.1" DCA, >12.5 IMBY on the spot....we didn't do well last winter but it wasn't a 2001-02 or 2007-08.....70% of climo sucks with our climo, but <50% of climo sucks more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I've thought for a while now that the PAC side will flip first and then the Atlantic side. This might be what the weeklies are doing as they amplify the Aleutian ridge poleward and it actually forces the PV toward the SE Davis straight...beyond that time frame is when hopefully the tropics help out and disturb that PV a little more and maybe break some of it off and retrograde it south via an amplifying ridge in the NAO region...even if east based. That is pure speculation, but that's probably sort of how it might get broken down on the ATL side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 i may bookmark your post just in case. but coming from you that is meaningful for sure. then again we got so little snow last winter it would not be that hard... LOL, not that hard, but that not easy either to go over 10" at DCA : ) Since 1980, it's been about 40% of winters at less than 10" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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