2011 Winter Banter Thread

[nw baltimore wx]

it cuts off at 240, but I guess you could extrapolate....it's going to change a million times anyway

I think I'd be willing to sacrifice some future snow for Christmas Eve / Day snow.

[Ian]

I think I'd be willing to sacrifice future snow for Christmas Eve / Day snow.

wise to punt the one 2 days out in favor of the one 10 days out

[usedtobe]

wise to punt the one 2 days out in favor of the one 10 days out

The 2 days out one is probably flurries. I can't do a CWG post today.

[nw baltimore wx]

wise to punt the one 2 days out in favor of the one 10 days out

If that's an option, then gladly.

[ravensrule]

Median/Mean:

Full record (1883-84 forward): 1.7"/3.7"

Last 50: 0.9"/3.4"

Last 30: 1.1"/3.0"

Thank you very much.

[WxUSAF]

Congrats CHO?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE054.gif

[WxUSAF]

Jackpot for Sunday on the GFS

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfsp24078.gif

[mappy]

Jackpot for Sunday on the GFS

http://raleighwx.ame...2zgfsp24078.gif

sweet. lock it up.

[WxUSAF]

Done.

[RodneyS]

Growing up in NJ, I recall events in 70-71 and one a few years earlier (maybe 67-68). I think the former was more on the first while the latter was more on the 31st. Did they not affect Northern Va?

On December 31, 1967, there was 4.2 inches of snow at DCA; and on December 31, 1970-January 1, 1971, there was 9.3 inches at DCA, with 4.9 inches falling on New Year's Eve and 4.4 inches falling on New Year's Day.

[WxUSAF]

If you pick the best GFS ensemble member for cold and snow at each 12hr timestep for the next 384hrs, you can piece together a pretty epic next 2 weeks.

[BristowWx]

If you pick the best GFS ensemble member for cold and snow at each 12hr timestep for the next 384hrs, you can piece together a pretty epic next 2 weeks.

I enjoyed reading your posts...you always put a positive spin on things which is cool if you are someone like me whose mood is influenced by each model run...I know, I know... it shouldn't be but it just is.

[Bob Chill]

If you pick the best GFS ensemble member for cold and snow at each 12hr timestep for the next 384hrs, you can piece together a pretty epic next 2 weeks.

What we really need is a matrix like reality that is governed by the lr gfs. Just plug me in and let it snow.

The worst part about the pattern and the model runs is they are not that bad in a seasonal sense. It's not like it's an all out torch or anything. Just slightly above normal temps overall but cold shots reminding us that it is winter. This kind of pattern makes me wish I didn't learn all the stuff that I've picked up on here and eastern. Unfortunately, I now have the ability to look at the long range and overall setup and know it stinks. If I didn't know how to do that I could just sit back with weenie hope and take it a day at a time.

[mdsnowlover]

I just heard on wbal, radio that a new forecast for our winter is for warmish for the east coast all the way, at least to the ,mississippi for the next three months. I dont rememberr who put out the forecast, but this doesn't sound good. But what the heck, if that's the way it goes, so be it. Let the weather happen. Its raining , lightly as I type here in columbia.Md. Another warm day. I guess ski resorts south of the new york area are going to be hurting for a while. It is what it is. Happy holidays.

[Harv_poor]

On December 31, 1967, there was 4.2 inches of snow at DCA; and on December 31, 1970-January 1, 1971, there was 9.3 inches at DCA, with 4.9 inches falling on New Year's Eve and 4.4 inches falling on New Year's Day.

Thanks. Nice to know I still can remember things. The other storm Ji/Zywts did not mention may have been 1986 -87 or a tad earlier. It was a coastal low that was suppose to bring heavy snow at least to Dulles. I think that fizzled as the all snow line was in the Poconos although I remember good wrap around snow in NJ, as I was in AC for New Year's Eve. Before the internet, I remember dialing 936-1212 to get the DC updates.

[Ian]

I just heard on wbal, radio that a new forecast for our winter is for warmish for the east coast all the way, at least to the ,mississippi for the next three months. I dont rememberr who put out the forecast, but this doesn't sound good. But what the heck, if that's the way it goes, so be it. Let the weather happen. Its raining , lightly as I type here in columbia.Md. Another warm day. I guess ski resorts south of the new york area are going to be hurting for a while. It is what it is. Happy holidays.

probably the new cpc temp outlook tho i dont know what it was before...

[Ji]

probably the new cpc temp outlook tho i dont know what it was before...

its not as orange for us!

[RodneyS]

I just heard on wbal, radio that a new forecast for our winter is for warmish for the east coast all the way, at least to the ,mississippi for the next three months. I dont rememberr who put out the forecast, but this doesn't sound good. But what the heck, if that's the way it goes, so be it. Let the weather happen. Its raining , lightly as I type here in columbia.Md. Another warm day. I guess ski resorts south of the new york area are going to be hurting for a while. It is what it is. Happy holidays.

See http://www.cpc.ncep..../off14_temp.gif and http://www.cpc.ncep..../off02_temp.gif

[Bob Chill]

^{I used to follow the CPC stuff all the time. Their discussions are better than the maps. I don't follow much anymore because honestly, the combination of met and knowledgeable regulars on this board is much more accurate than the CPC. Not saying CPC isn't good. It's just much more detailed here.}

[WxUSAF]

I enjoyed reading your posts...you always put a positive spin on things which is cool if you are someone like me whose mood is influenced by each model run...I know, I know... it shouldn't be but it just is.

Thanks! Save the heartbreak (or joy) for those model runs 2 days out from a SECS/MECS. It's not worth it right now.

What we really need is a matrix like reality that is governed by the lr gfs. Just plug me in and let it snow.

The worst part about the pattern and the model runs is they are not that bad in a seasonal sense. It's not like it's an all out torch or anything. Just slightly above normal temps overall but cold shots reminding us that it is winter. This kind of pattern makes me wish I didn't learn all the stuff that I've picked up on here and eastern. Unfortunately, I now have the ability to look at the long range and overall setup and know it stinks. If I didn't know how to do that I could just sit back with weenie hope and take it a day at a time.

The pattern has certainly got better in that MOST days are pretty much near normal. But our warm days have been well above normal and our cold days are only slightly below normal. As for snow chances, climo is helping us more and more each day as we can occasionally pull a rabbit out of the hat in an otherwise unfavorable pattern when our average daily temperature is only a few degrees above freezing right now.

[mdsnowlover]

^{I used to follow the CPC stuff all the time. Their discussions are better than the maps. I don't follow much anymore because honestly, the combination of met and knowledgeable regulars is much more accurate than the CPC. Not saying CPC isn't good. It's just much more detailed here.}

I dont follow cpc at all or read their discussions. I read on this board for information. I just heard this on the radio and posted about it. I,m a novice and dont post much. The weather doesn't affect me very much anymore. I,m retired and dont need to go anywhere if there is bad weather. I just let it happen. Happy holidays. Thanks for the input from others.

[Ian]

^{I used to follow the CPC stuff all the time. Their discussions are better than the maps. I don't follow much anymore because honestly, the combination of met and knowledgeable regulars on this board is much more accurate than the CPC. Not saying CPC isn't good. It's just much more detailed here.}

the map is pretty nina one way or another -- the next 30 days one is kinda painful i guess unless it's weighted to the first half.

i know the long rangers have faith but hard not to be in a gotta see it to believe it mode right now.

[mappy]

My old favorite red/green tagger keeps telling me to have patience, cold/snow is coming... sometime next year

[WxUSAF]

Next December?

[Ian]

My old favorite red/green tagger keeps telling me to have patience, cold/snow is coming... sometime next year

i dont think it's a particularly amazing sign that people are focusing so heavily on 10hpa warming. i can't even remember that ever being a big topic of discussion before. im not going to say it's not valid but lotsa reaching going on because all the other usual signs are generally terrible for probably another 2-4 weeks if not longer. yeah, it'll snow at some point.. probably.

[mappy]

Next December?

I think he said Mid-January

i dont think it's a particularly amazing sign that people are focusing so heavily on 10hpa warming. i can't even remember that ever being a big topic of discussion before. im not going to say it's not valid but lotsa reaching going on because all the other usual signs are generally terrible for probably another 2-4 weeks if not longer. yeah, it'll snow at some point.. probably.

I don't even know what 10hpa warming is, let alone try and focus on it. I just ask for updates once a week on how things look and he seems to think Mid-January or so looks better for us.

...when he isn't busy banning me

[Ian]

its not as orange for us!

looks worse than last months to me

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/mda/medwntr2011/prsnt/WinterClimate_2011.pdf (slide 2)

[Ian]

I don't even know what 10hpa warming is, let alone try and focus on it. I just ask for updates once a week on how things look and he seems to think Mid-January or so looks better for us.

...when he isn't busy banning me

i guess it's one level of the stratosphere.. people are looking for warming because it signals cold eventually. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30871-stratospheric-warming-event-on-the-way/

and yeah the long rangers have to believe their profession is meaningfull...

[HM]

This stratospheric warming thing is complete nonsense. The current / upcoming events are basically telling us that we have finally moved into a winter-like state where we have wave amplitude from the troposphere. There is a reason these things are called "Mid-Winter Warming" events; they don't occur this time of year! Canadian warmings/sudden warmings can occur this early but they certainly won't reverse the winds.

Downwelling stratospheric warming events are very rare and are way overrated in terms of the Arctic Oscillation's state. They of course can be very important but I think people are overlooking the more important things going on right now. All the matters is that the wave 1 amplitudes are up and that will help out substantially.

[Ian]

This stratospheric warming thing is complete nonsense. The current / upcoming events are basically telling us that we have finally moved into a winter-like state where we have wave amplitude from the troposphere. There is a reason these things are called "Mid-Winter Warming" events; they don't occur this time of year! Canadian warmings/sudden warmings can occur this early but they certainly won't reverse the winds.

Downwelling stratospheric warming events are very rare and are way overrated in terms of the Arctic Oscillation's state. They of course can be very important but I think people are overlooking the more important things going on right now. All the matters is that the wave 1 amplitudes are up and that will help out substantially.

So you're saying it will snow eventually?

..at the risk of Matt telling me to go away.