2011 Winter Banter Thread

[mappy]

Trying to get "accidentally" banned again, I see

HA! So you did do it on purpose!

[mitchnick]

it is just way too early in the season in our area to give up

way too early

[gymengineer]

it is just way too early in the season in our area to give up

way too early

Give up on what?

[ORH_wxman]

going into this winter I thought the o/u for DCA was 11-12"....i dont think that has changed a whole lot...if I was going to adjust down, I'd probably only go to the 10.8" - 11.3" range

Yeah I don't think you have a big reason to change it right now. December climo isn't worth much anyway at DCA...and if getting a horrendous December pattern helps make for the timing of a flip to occur in January, then that might actually help DCA versus getting a "favorable" December pattern and then flipping to a torch in January like 2005-2006.

I don't think I'd adjust significantly downward until we saw strong signs that a January flip won't happen or it will be very late January...by then the clock is starting to tick.

[CoastalWx]

nobody is giving up, but I don't think there was as much angst in 2004 and 2006.....maybe because they were ninos...maybe because there was no OCT 29th and maybe because SNE is snowless and +1000 on the month....we have to let this winter play out....but I think until something positive comes to fruition, the ghost of 2001-02 always lingers in the back of our minds when the vodka cold and pattern change was always just around the corner..I think both me and you will be on the board with at least one event over 1" by January 15th....and if we aren't what can we do?....I'll probably chase if this winter completely sh-its the bed, but as far as our backyard we are powerless..

I've thought about it for a while, but I'm still thinking the second half of winter could turn out ok...IOW..winter not ending on Ground Hog day like in previous Ninas. Part of it is due to the fact that we simply will have a Feb and March sooner or later (I know you guys had early Feb 2010), but all these events occurring into January may help promote winter going into Feb and maybe even March down here too.

[gymengineer]

I'm trying to decide what's worse- an 01/02 or 75/76. At least 01/02 was terrible for everybody here. 75/76-- small snows every month, wait and wait until you get to March, and then you get the killer gradient storm with 6" in the suburbs but less than an inch at DCA.

[gymengineer]

I've thought about it for a while, but I'm still thinking the second half of winter could turn out ok...IOW..winter not ending on Ground Hog day like in previous Ninas. Part of it is due to the fact that we simply will have a Feb and March sooner or later (I know you guys had early Feb 2010), but all these events occurring into January may help promote winter going into Feb and maybe even March down here too.

March '76, '99, and '09 had by far the best storms of the winter for our area.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm trying to decide what's worse- an 01/02 or 75/76. At least 01/02 was terrible for everybody here. 75/76-- small snows every month, wait and wait until you get to March, and then you get the killer gradient storm with 6" in the suburbs but less than an inch at DCA.

From a multi-region standpoint, '75-'76 would prob be tougher for snow enthusiasts in DC...New England got hit pretty good that winter, particularly in December 1975 and January 1976, Feb was a furnace. At least in '01-'02, it was horrendous in the entire Northeast. Everyone shared misery that winter.

[gymengineer]

From a multi-region standpoint, '75-'76 would prob be tougher for snow enthusiasts in DC...New England got hit pretty good that winter, particularly in December 1975 and January 1976, Feb was a furnace. At least in '01-'02, it was horrendous in the entire Northeast. Everyone shared misery that winter.

The December '75 storm was a great one for Boston, right?

[ORH_wxman]

The December '75 storm was a great one for Boston, right?

Yes, it was actually officially 2 events though on Dec 20-22, but they were like 12 hours apart. It gave BOS like 18.4".

[gymengineer]

From a multi-region standpoint, '75-'76 would prob be tougher for snow enthusiasts in DC...New England got hit pretty good that winter, particularly in December 1975 and January 1976, Feb was a furnace. At least in '01-'02, it was horrendous in the entire Northeast. Everyone shared misery that winter.

And BTW, I lived in the Boston area during the worst possible 4-year stretch in the last 20 years- from 98-02. Only '00/'01 went above average, but barely, and the March '01 storm was a letdown in the Boston itself. The gradient was amazing for that storm once you got past SE Middlesex County.

I loved how the fluffy December snow in '01 that didn't stick to any of the roads ended up being the biggest snow that winter.

[ORH_wxman]

precisely but that is too rational....no matter how much the evidence suggests we shouldn't be anywhere near the ledge, the only thing that really gets us off it is snow...palpable, tangible accumulating snow....I had 5 accumulating snowfall events at this point in 2005 so I didn't care as much when the pattern flipped

Yeah Dec 2005 was active, but your climo def limited you on how much you could cash in that month...if that pattern happened in January that winter, you probably would have seen 2-3x as much snow.

What we don't want is a flip to good blocking but remaining cold and dry...its a crap shoot often when it comes to that in a Nina with a lack of STJ. We could just get skunked like Jan 1985...still a good month, esp for DCA...but it probably underperformed quite a bit based on the pattern.

[gymengineer]

Yeah Dec 2005 was active, but your climo def limited you on how much you could cash in that month...if that pattern happened in January that winter, you probably would have seen 2-3x as much snow.

What we don't want is a flip to good blocking but remaining cold and dry...its a crap shoot often when it comes to that in a Nina with a lack of STJ. We could just get skunked like Jan 1985...still a good month, esp for DCA...but it probably underperformed quite a bit based on the pattern.

LOL-- that's the thing with our area, though. Jan '85 was a great month, underperforming or not. In any given winter, if you can get a single month to hit 10" at DCA, we would take it in a heartbeat.

[ORH_wxman]

LOL-- that's the thing with our area, though. Jan '85 was a great month, underperforming or not. In any given winter, if you can get a single month to hit 10" at DCA, we would take it in a heartbeat.

Yeah in an absolute sense it was a great month..cold and well above avg snow for DCA....but it was the type of longwave pattern where DCA might typically put up a 17 spot or something, or even more...def one of those rare types of almost perfect blocking setups. They don't come along very often.

[mitchnick]

nobody is giving up, but I don't think there was as much angst in 2004 and 2006.....maybe because they were ninos...maybe because there was no OCT 29th and maybe because SNE is snowless and +1000 on the month....we have to let this winter play out....but I think until something positive comes to fruition, the ghost of 2001-02 always lingers in the back of our minds when the vodka cold and pattern change was always just around the corner..I think both me and you will be on the board with at least one event over 1" by January 15th....and if we aren't what can we do?....I'll probably chase if this winter completely sh-its the bed, but as far as our backyard we are powerless..

I guess what I mean is, nothing should be off the table at this point

I am not blind to the fact that this winter has a very low possibility of turning out to be a 95/96 or 09/10, but late blooming years (most, for different reasons) like 86/87, 92/93, 98/99, 99/00, 04/05, and 06/07 to some extent, are all on the table imho due to weak/mod NINA and yes, E QBO

I believe the solar output has been our problem so far and, so long as the sun cooperates, we have a decent shot at normal/AN snows

again, my focus is on snow and not temps; we can be AN temps, but if we get decent snow, I don't care about temps (otoh, we rarely get AN snow with AN temps, but whatever)

so, call it experience ( OK, my age) or patience, I'm no where near to throwing in the towel

[gymengineer]

I guess what I mean is, nothing should be off the table at this point

I am not blind to the fact that this winter has a very low possibility of turning out to be a 95/96 or 09/10, but late blooming years (most, for different reasons) like 86/87, 92/93, 98/99, 99/00, 04/05, and 06/07 to some extent, are all on the table imho due to weak/mod NINA and yes, E QBO

I believe the solar output has been our problem so far and, so long as the sun cooperates, we have a decent shot at normal/AN snows

again, my focus is on snow and not temps; we can be AN temps, but if we get decent snow, I don't care about temps (otoh, we rarely get AN snow with AN temps, but whatever)

so, call it experience ( OK, my age) or patience, I'm no where near to throwing in the towel

And five of your six listed late-start seasons were in the 10-15" range at DCA, which lines up exactly with Matt's expectations. Only '86/'87 was a good winter, but that took on a classic Nino look for our area, starting with the New Years storm. I guess most of us are on the same page, but just framing it a different way.

[Bob Chill]

Yeah Dec 2005 was active, but your climo def limited you on how much you could cash in that month...if that pattern happened in January that winter, you probably would have seen 2-3x as much snow.

What we don't want is a flip to good blocking but remaining cold and dry...its a crap shoot often when it comes to that in a Nina with a lack of STJ. We could just get skunked like Jan 1985...still a good month, esp for DCA...but it probably underperformed quite a bit based on the pattern.

Why does there seem to be alot of energy and closed lows sliding through the SW this year? I lived in CO rockies through the 90's and Nina's always meant good early season snow in the northern part of the state and the opposite with Nino's. Not happening like that this year.

The central and northern rockies aren't doing well at all right now but the SW part of CO is doing very well. Wolf Creek in the sw portion of CO has already had 186" of snow and Breckenridge in the north central mountains has had about 65". This is the exact opposite of what you would expect in a Nina.

The only reason why I bring this up is because it is anomalous and if it keeps up it would increase the EC's chances at a decent phaser IF we ever get some blocking in place. I discussed this with zwts in a thread a while back and he made a very valid point than energy coming out of the sw and travelling along the gulf states is more prone to shear out in a Nina. It does have my interest because if we want to see a big storm in a Nina, we would need some sort of phase with split flow because the stj will likely be quiet.

A well timed 500mb low coming out of the sw phasing with a ns vort diving out of canada could give us all a decent hit if we can crank a -nao at some point. We got close a couple times last year but it was a bunch of swings and misses for us down here. Miller B's aren't going to do it for us. We need the 500 and 850 low to track to our south or we end up with a bunch of MA weenies on the ledge (including me).

[Midlo Snow Maker]

great disco guys

at this point i would just be happy with a 25 degree night to make snow, or a frz rain/sleet storm

[mitchnick]

me neither...not close at all but I'd like a FG before halftime just to get on the scoreboard

if we do, it'll be on an interception, that's all

[Fozz]

I'm trying to decide what's worse- an 01/02 or 75/76. At least 01/02 was terrible for everybody here. 75/76-- small snows every month, wait and wait until you get to March, and then you get the killer gradient storm with 6" in the suburbs but less than an inch at DCA.

01-02 wasn't terrible for everyone.......there was a major southern snowstorm in early January and another good storm in Feb, and therefore a lot of places exceeded their average. Atlanta got more snow than us that winter, and so did most places between us and Florida.

I was 11 back then, and seeing all these places get more snow enraged me. It was the most vile winter in memory......07-08 was far far better IMO.

/end rant

[WinterWxLuvr]

me neither...not close at all but I'd like a FG before halftime just to get on the scoreboard

I think that you have made two excellent points on this page. One, the October snow has definitely put most of us in a state of mind that we probably wouldn't be in right now. Last year, the first accumulating snow in Winchester was on Dec. 16, about 2 inches. I wasn't in any type of panic mode then. I'm not in one now, but just call me anxious waiting on a decent snow. Two, any type of small event before New Years would probably give us some momentum heading into the 2nd half, the true winter months.

[mitchnick]

I'm trying to decide what's worse- an 01/02 or 75/76. At least 01/02 was terrible for everybody here. 75/76-- small snows every month, wait and wait until you get to March, and then you get the killer gradient storm with 6" in the suburbs but less than an inch at DCA.

having lived through and remembering both, 01/02 was worse....hands down

76' had a surprise storm in early MAR that saved it from being an 01/02

[ORH_wxman]

Why does there seem to be alot of energy and closed lows sliding through the SW this year? I lived in CO rockies through the 90's and Nina's always meant good early season snow in the northern part of the state and the opposite with Nino's. Not happening like that this year.

The central and northern rockies aren't doing well at all right now but the SW part of CO is doing very well. Wolf Creek in the sw portion of CO has already had 186" of snow and Breckenridge in the north central mountains has had about 65". This is the exact opposite of what you would expect in a Nina.

The only reason why I bring this up is because it is anomalous and if it keeps up it would increase the EC's chances at a decent phaser IF we ever get some blocking in place. I discussed this with zwts in a thread a while back and he made a very valid point than energy coming out of the sw and travelling along the gulf states is more prone to shear out in a Nina. It does have my interest because if we want to see a big storm in a Nina, we would need some sort of phase with split flow because the stj will likely be quiet.

A well timed 500mb low coming out of the sw phasing with a ns vort diving out of canada could give us all a decent hit if we can crank a -nao at some point. We got close a couple times last year but it was a bunch of swings and misses for us down here. Miller B's aren't going to do it for us. We need the 500 and 850 low to track to our south or we end up with a bunch of MA weenies on the ledge (including me).

This winter has acted a bit like a Nino thus far in some senses. Lots of ridging over the PNA region...I'm not sure of the exact causes, but the Aleutian Ridge has been muted and the lack of a good polar jet getting further south is helping for some of the energy diving southward from the PNA ridging to get cutoff over the rockies and go SW. It might be a combo of the weird QBO configuration early on, the sudden jump in solar (that now seems to be wearing off) and maybe even a delayed response (which is normal) to the temporary halt in the Nina strengthening back in late Oct or Nov. I'm not expert on those causes, but regardless, the profile has been a bit Nino-like thus far with the northern tier baking more than the southern tier.

Signs are that is changing though...Nina resumed its strengthening a while back, the -QBO is descending, and the recent stratospheric warming (while not a SSW) should help nudge the PV a bit to make room for the Aleutian ridge to flex it muscles, so I expect we'll start to see a little bit more Nina profile as we get into latter December here....but the true arctic air is still tough to come by south of the CONUS border with Canada.

[Huffwx]

01-02 would be painful here. After watching the March 01 storm trend north north north-- I assumed the Jan 2-3 storm would north. The super confluence made a super sharp cut off. We squeezed 2 inches in the afternoon that should have been S+ (dry air aloft) and placed 20 miles south had 8-12 inches. No thanks-- (OK, I did chase)

I'm not negative yet--

[ORH_wxman]

how is the morale in your forum overall?....I know Kev's coping mechanism is to pretend that everything is perfectly fine and that a good storm is just around the corner...how bout Ray?....has he melted down yet?

Ray is close to melting down, but he hasn't yet.

I think most reasonable people are being patient. Even if we just want to be weenies about the snow totals for the season, the Oct storm helps hold off climo for a while. I've had a horrific Nov/Dec period but am still above climo for this time of year only because of that freak storm. (actually two storms...Oct 27 dumped like 2")

But I think it will start to look and feel a lot bleaker if we don't see much hope by the final week of December. It hurts to waste December here...a lot more than for you. You can shrug off December pretty easily and log in an average snowfall season without too much trouble.

We'll have to see how the next 2 weeks perform. Sometimes we can pull off an ugly 3-6" event in a bad pattern...that would probably calm a lot of people even though the long wave pattern is still garbage.

I think there is some reason for hope though down the line...it doesn't look like a bottomless pit of zonal flow to me through the end of January. Maybe that will change if this warming (that is less than a SSW) in Asia craps the bed and the Aleutian ridge fails to amplify poleward, but until there's good evidence of that, I will remain fairly optimistic about some changes in January.

[showmethesnow]

The off run 06Z NAM takes the precip back south towards Richmond. Also says forget about anything on Sunday unless you live in the mountains.

mode: On the other hand the radar at this time compared to the 00Z NAM @6 hrs looks to have the precip a little farther north.

[mitchnick]

6Z NAM = 0Z Euro = NADA

[Ian]

With the caveat that I am a longtime contributor and that I pimp out the site constantly as the best weather source out there, how long do we have to tolerate CWG's warminista pandering?...It is getting really old...it is December 16th....yesterday was a +13....today is a +10....this weekend might actually be climatologically normal for a 2 day stretch...there is no reason to apologize for that and encourage winter haters to keep complaining...There is no shame in liking snow and cold...it should not have to be accompanied by apologies....ever

yeah sometimes it's a bit much probably. i had to tone down camden's words in like 5 places with today's forecasts where he was sorry about today being chilly and the weekend being cold. we're about avg for a few days.. could certainly be worse if you don't like cold.

[usedtobe]

yeah sometimes it's a bit much probably. i had to tone down camden's words in like 5 places with today's forecasts where he was sorry about today being chilly and the weekend being cold. we're about avg for a few days.. could certainly be worse if you don't like cold.

Is Camden a guy who likes it warm?

[Ian]

Is Camden a guy who likes it warm?

I think so. I'd say on the whole CWG likes warm unless it's going to snow. There are a relative few who proclaim their love of cold at least. I guess we're almost a southern city so not totally nuts but it's cold here every winter.