kurtstack Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Looks like the AO will be weakening toward neutral over the next week. First positive thing I've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Looks like the AO will be weakening toward neutral over the next week. First positive thing I've seen so far. a related positive thing is that the 10 and 14 days forecasts have been too high recently it wasn't too long ago that they were too low http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 supposedly the 18z GFS does some "nice things" over siberia in the longer range, PV gets knocked up but holds firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 are we getting a Nino next winter? nope, strong nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Most of what I have heard from the pros on this site as well as elsewhere are of the opinion that SSW can not be predicted. That being said I found an interesting paper from 2009 that seems to suggest that blocking in the troposphere actually can be a precursor to a SSW and with different blocking locations will result in either a PV split or a PV displacement. I was wondering if any of the pro-mets had seen this article and/or had an opinion of any validity to it's assertions. http://www.columbia....es-GRL-2009.pdf Edit: Meant to put this in the main forum on SSW's thread. Mods feel free to trash this if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 nope, strong nina Do you have anything to back up said statement other than you pulled it out of your ass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm not enthused about the potential upcoming +PNA. It may give us a brief shot of something interesting but the ridge will most likely break down as the deep lp around AK starts banging into it.....again. It's possible that the ridge out west can hold firm and things can evolve to a better setup in the atl but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 nope, strong nina Strong 3rd year Nina. Oof. 75/76 - 2.2" at DCA and the warmest Feb on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Strong 3rd year Nina. Oof. 75/76 - 2.2" at DCA and the warmest Feb on record. 97-98, even though it was a strong Nino, was ridiculous. 70s and I believe 80s in January? I think we had like half an inch of snoe that winter and the day we got the snow we got the day off for a snow day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I don't pay close attention to this, but I believe most people are forecasting the Nina to weaken to near neutral, maybe cold-neutral for next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I don't pay close attention to this, but I believe most people are forecasting the Nina to weaken to near neutral, maybe cold-neutral for next year? Bethesda has his own forecasting method that he continuously claims would be met with great derision by the board. Thus, he keeps them restricted to his family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 we're gonna' have to wait until JAN, like it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 we're gonna' have to wait until JAN, like it or not Maybe for a pattern change, but I don't think I agree about chances for winter precip. Maybe nothing big, but I think there's opportunity for a little fun here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 we're gonna' have to wait until JAN, like it or not probably, but there seems to be some growing excitement over this potential SSW over Siberia.....What I am hoping is that we start to see the models advertising a change of some sort around Christmas- New Years since no signiificant change will likely happen by then....then at least we can get palpably excited....but yes, even before then we are entering a climo period when we can get a 1-3" event in a so-so pattern with a temporary PNA spike for instance and a little luck....I think that was much harder in Nov and early December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Maybe for a pattern change, but I don't think I agree about chances for winter precip. Maybe nothing big, but I think there's opportunity for a little fun here and there. yes....modest events in a so-so pattern are increasingly easier to come by.....especially if it is something that say dumps 0.3" at DCA, but 1-3" for a lot of suburban people...maybe a clipper?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phils1 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 There is certainly growing support for a change in the polar vortex situation (ie stratospheric warming) over the next week or so which could lead to considerably colder weather in the US later this month. In fact, several models support this notion of a pattern flip in about 10 days or so including the GFS, CMC and NOGAPS which are all detailed in the latest video at The SI Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 zwts, I just posted in the other thread. Did you catch the -nao at the end of the run? Are the models starting to sniff something out? Fantasyland GFS looking a good bit different that what we have been seeing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 probably, but there seems to be some growing excitement over this potential SSW over Siberia.....What I am hoping is that we start to see the models advertising a change of some sort around Christmas- New Years since no signiificant change will likely happen by then....then at least we can get palpably excited....but yes, even before then we are entering a climo period when we can get a 1-3" event in a so-so pattern with a temporary PNA spike for instance and a little luck....I think that was much harder in Nov and early December although a textbook SSW would be nice, I don't "think" our winter is do or die dependent upon it any sort of warming and dislodging of the PV will change the current pattern and allow us at least reasonable chance(s) at light to mod events I believe (and hope) the only real bummer is the time lag between any warming and/or dislodging of the PV models seem to all agree that by day 10, it will have happened, but then we have to wait another 10 days +/- hopefully, we can score before the full effects arrive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 although a textbook SSW would be nice, I don't "think" our winter is do or die dependent upon it any sort of warming and dislodging of the PV will change the current pattern and allow us at least reasonable chance(s) at light to mod events I believe (and hope) the only real bummer is the time lag between any warming and/or dislodging of the PV models seem to all agree that by day 10, it will have happened, but then we have to wait another 10 days +/- hopefully, we can score before the full effects arrive Honestly I have no real clue how quickly the effects are felt here after a SSW, but I think it would be more like a few weeks...I just looked at the GFS and Euro runs from this afternoon and there is nothing to get excited about yet.....maybe the only thing to get excited about is that there is cold air in Canada and it is in better position in a week or 2 than it is now.....There will probably be a big storm that cuts to our west middle of next week.....I think after that maybe there will be some hope in the modelling, but I think any event here over the next 2 weeks and maybe longer will not be based on a much better long wave pattern, but rather some luck with a quick moving trough or a clipper.....I think we have to just "enjoy" the next week because nothing interesting is likely to occur until at least Christmas weekend....If we are going to get a moderate event in an unfavorable pattern, I think 12/24- 12/31 is the timeframe....not before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 this is all starting to sound like wishful thinking. though it is winter, i guess it has to get cold sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 this is all starting to sound like wishful thinking. though it is winter, i guess it has to get cold sometime. I know they have to figure into the average but, except for 12/6 and 12/7 that were 11 and 21 degrees AN respectively, the rest of the month at BWI has only averaged .5F above normal and 2.7F keeping those 2 days in the computation my point is, though we haven't had any real cold shots, it hasn't been ungodly warm save those 2 days, and what would one expect with such a strong slp passing overhead and DCA is only +2F and IAD is +1.5F; take those 2 days out, and both of those stations are BN temps for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 well i dont know anything about the long range but i hope winter never comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Who let the warmista out of OT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 well i dont know anything about the long range but i hope winter never comes. You know something about the short range? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 You know something about the short range? . im not sure im in a joking mood after the last few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 this is all starting to sound like wishful thinking. though it is winter, i guess it has to get cold sometime. except in rare winters, pattern changes are pretty standard......in 2007-08 other than the beginning of December the pattern was pretty rotten the whole winter....same in 2001-02 other than a brief period but there is much more cold air to work with than that winter.....more likely than not we are going to get a flip to cold in the means for a sustained period of time...>5 days......wishful thinking would usually apply to something that is unlikely to happen, not likely.....this is more a matter of when it will happen than if it will happen.....in 2006-07 and 2004-05 it didnt happen til the 2nd half of January...but it happened....we are all weenies at heart and we want to rush the changes to a better regime, but it is going to happen....so I guess enjoy this pattern if you like warmth...it won't last forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 im not sure im in a joking mood after the last few days... Tomorrow is a new day, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 im not sure im in a joking mood after the last few days... Sorry the OT stuff getting to you?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Sorry the OT stuff getting to you?. na, i love being attacked mercilously by a number of people at multiple forums with no support. but it's in the past.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 na, i love being attacked mercilously by a number of people at multiple forums with no support. but it's in the past.. Sorry i did not even realize the extent of it until you told me, i will hold off on the jokes until tomorrow to give you a break. I cannot even give you a hug because my damn smilies are not working again. I love man hugs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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