mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 probably, but there seems to be some growing excitement over this potential SSW over Siberia.....What I am hoping is that we start to see the models advertising a change of some sort around Christmas- New Years since no signiificant change will likely happen by then....then at least we can get palpably excited....but yes, even before then we are entering a climo period when we can get a 1-3" event in a so-so pattern with a temporary PNA spike for instance and a little luck....I think that was much harder in Nov and early December although a textbook SSW would be nice, I don't "think" our winter is do or die dependent upon it any sort of warming and dislodging of the PV will change the current pattern and allow us at least reasonable chance(s) at light to mod events I believe (and hope) the only real bummer is the time lag between any warming and/or dislodging of the PV models seem to all agree that by day 10, it will have happened, but then we have to wait another 10 days +/- hopefully, we can score before the full effects arrive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 this is all starting to sound like wishful thinking. though it is winter, i guess it has to get cold sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 this is all starting to sound like wishful thinking. though it is winter, i guess it has to get cold sometime. I know they have to figure into the average but, except for 12/6 and 12/7 that were 11 and 21 degrees AN respectively, the rest of the month at BWI has only averaged .5F above normal and 2.7F keeping those 2 days in the computation my point is, though we haven't had any real cold shots, it hasn't been ungodly warm save those 2 days, and what would one expect with such a strong slp passing overhead and DCA is only +2F and IAD is +1.5F; take those 2 days out, and both of those stations are BN temps for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 well i dont know anything about the long range but i hope winter never comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Who let the warmista out of OT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 well i dont know anything about the long range but i hope winter never comes. You know something about the short range? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 You know something about the short range? . im not sure im in a joking mood after the last few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 im not sure im in a joking mood after the last few days... Tomorrow is a new day, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 im not sure im in a joking mood after the last few days... Sorry the OT stuff getting to you?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Sorry the OT stuff getting to you?. na, i love being attacked mercilously by a number of people at multiple forums with no support. but it's in the past.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 na, i love being attacked mercilously by a number of people at multiple forums with no support. but it's in the past.. Sorry i did not even realize the extent of it until you told me, i will hold off on the jokes until tomorrow to give you a break. I cannot even give you a hug because my damn smilies are not working again. I love man hugs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 na, i love being attacked mercilously by a number of people at multiple forums with no support. but it's in the past.. My forays into OT have been mostly non-existent. From what I gather, it is probably best to keep it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 na, i love being attacked mercilously by a number of people at multiple forums with no support. but it's in the past.. If I'd been witness to it, you wouldn't have been without support. I just never saw it. All of what has happened over the past few days came as a shock to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 you don't have to know a lot about the long range to know that winter is probably coming...it is just a matter of when...This isn't like 1999-00 when the entire country torched....Northern New Mexico is running -10 on the month....Laramie Wyoming is -13 now on the month...All the cold air locked up in the NW territories has no way to make it here so it is funneling down to the mountain west and bleeding over into Quebec and the Maritimes...even with the wretched pattern we are only +2 on the month and the recent cold shot though short was formidable given how modified and wimpy the push was.....We are getting an arctic dump at some point....it just may not happen as soon as we want it to.... yeah.. i know. not really my first winter of watching weather. im just taking up a contrary hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 i know...which is why the wishful thinking comment made no sense...nobody AFAIK is talking about anything big happening imminently to me a lot of the long range ideas are still pretty nebulous even with people who actually understand them. i've generally always been of the mind that there are greatly diminishing returns in accuracy every step you get away from d1-3. not to say it's not worth talking about at all, but i've seen plenty of talk of pattern changes that don't happen when expected. but yeah, i'd be shocked if we make it through the whole winter with no serious cold outbreak and at least one or two solid storm risks mixed in with a few nickle and dimers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 agreed...there is definitely diminishing skill and nobody should be deterministic outside a certain range, but there is still skill....It is still a lot of guesswork but I think better than flipping a coin or a magic 8-ball i just hope it holds off long enough to see the light at the end of the tunnel when it starts. nothing worse than winter starting in december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 to me a lot of the long range ideas are still pretty nebulous even with people who actually understand them. i've generally always been of the mind that there are greatly diminishing returns in accuracy every step you get away from d1-3. not to say it's not worth talking about at all, but i've seen plenty of talk of pattern changes that don't happen when expected. but yeah, i'd be shocked if we make it through the whole winter with no serious cold outbreak and at least one or two solid storm risks mixed in with a few nickle and dimers. I think as long as you are realistic with the details (or lack thereof) beyond 10 days, you can do pretty well with pattern forecasting. It doesn't mean the sensible wx will always cooperate in our backyards though...I.E. like we could see the potential for blocking 3 weeks out and then verify but its slightly off in orientation and we don't cool off as much as we might otherwise in a very similar but slightly different setup. But you can at least play the odds...we'll usually feel good if we went negative departures and a -AO is coming. I think in general most of us are anxious for the pattern to change and might want to rush it versus reality. The objective signs available don't really show much through the end of December...there's some cooler shots but they do not look like a large scale regime change quite yet. I think we'll probably have to wait until January to see that...but the signs definitely seem to be improving for January. I texted Matt last night that it works out fine for you guys since January through mid February is when you'd want to see the colder pattern anyway to maximize snow climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Snow climo around here is lame, but it is really lame until probably around a week into January. I mean, for cripes sake, there has never been measurable snow at the current DCA location on 12/30 and 1/2. That is just nutty. The median snowfall in December in the last 50 years is just over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Snow climo around here is lame, but it is really lame until probably around a week into January. I mean, for cripes sake, there has never been measurable snow at the current DCA location on 12/30 and 1/2. That is just nutty. The median snowfall in December in the last 50 years is just over an inch. Pretty sobering stats, i did not realize it was that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Pretty sobering stats, i did not realize it was that bad. IAD is a little better. Median 2.5". Edit: corrected in post 810 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 IAD is a little better. Median 2.5". If you do not mind what is BWI?, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 If you do not mind what is BWI?, thank you. BWI's 1981-2010 average snowfall for December is 3.1" (we're probably an inch or so above that being north of the city). Median is way lower.....0.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I think as long as you are realistic with the details (or lack thereof) beyond 10 days, you can do pretty well with pattern forecasting. It doesn't mean the sensible wx will always cooperate in our backyards though...I.E. like we could see the potential for blocking 3 weeks out and then verify but its slightly off in orientation and we don't cool off as much as we might otherwise in a very similar but slightly different setup. But you can at least play the odds...we'll usually feel good if we went negative departures and a -AO is coming. I think in general most of us are anxious for the pattern to change and might want to rush it versus reality. The objective signs available don't really show much through the end of December...there's some cooler shots but they do not look like a large scale regime change quite yet. I think we'll probably have to wait until January to see that...but the signs definitely seem to be improving for January. I texted Matt last night that it works out fine for you guys since January through mid February is when you'd want to see the colder pattern anyway to maximize snow climo. In sucky winters the pattern never really changes. In 06 and 0z it wasn't until late January early February. All we can do is live and die by every 1C temp rise the ECMWF shows in the stratosphere @ day 10 because there is a 20% chance of an SSW @ day 15 which has a 20% chance of bringing us a snowstorm day 30. Welcome to the find a new hobby club I think distraction is the only way to survive this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 IAD is a little better. Median 2.5". From what I checked, IAD's median since Dec 1963 was exactly 1". DCA's 50 year median was 0.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 In sucky winters the pattern never really changes. In 06 and 0z it wasn't until late January early February. All we can do is live and die by every 1C temp rise the ECMWF shows in the stratosphere @ day 10 because there is a 20% chance of an SSW @ day 15 which has a 20% chance of bringing us a snowstorm day 30. Welcome to the find a new hobby club I think distraction is the only way to survive this winter. Well I wouldn't say that is true for all crappy winters. Sometimes you just do not cash in on a good pattern in a cruddy winter...so that's part of the reason why it stunk. Not because the pattern was horrible all year. Some years like '01-'02 the pattern was essentially horrible from wire to wire, but other years like '06-'07 the pattern shifted for a good 5-6 weeks but just couldn't get a huge M.A. snowstorm out of it as the details never really worked out in each storm threat. '84-'85 underperformed during a great long wave pattern in January that winter so that winter is not remembered too fondly by snow lovers. Cold was different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Snow climo around here is lame, but it is really lame until probably around a week into January. I mean, for cripes sake, there has never been measurable snow at the current DCA location on 12/30 and 1/2. That is just nutty. The median snowfall in December in the last 50 years is just over an inch. thats not true...i remember a 4 inch snowstorm on 12/31 back in the 80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 no...it must of been 1980-1981 because i was at my aunts house for new years eve in Vienna...in 1989 I was actually in Florida. The 80-81 event was a wet snow--quick mover...heavy burst and mostly melted the next day but the storm happened during the evening of NYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim_in_CA Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Snow climo around here is lame, but it is really lame until probably around a week into January. I mean, for cripes sake, there has never been measurable snow at the current DCA location on 12/30 and 1/2. That is just nutty. The median snowfall in December in the last 50 years is just over an inch. This point bears repeating. Don't we actually average more snow in March than in December around here? I just wish we could move Christmas to January or something. It's made out to be this cold and snowy holiday, but in reality the famous "white Christmas" is rare just about everywhere in the country outside the mountain west and northern New England. And around here - it usually isn't even that cold. We have to remember, in this area, December often has more in common with late fall than winter. I definitely haven't given up on the winter, but like others here, I'm not expecting much of anything until after the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 This point bears repeating. Don't we actually average more snow in March than in December around here? I just wish we could move Christmas to January or something. It's made out to be this cold and snowy holiday, but in reality the famous "white Christmas" is rare just about everywhere in the country outside the mountain west and northern New England. And around here - it usually isn't even that cold. We have to remember, in this area, December often has more in common with late fall than winter. I definitely haven't given up on the winter, but like others here, I'm not expecting much of anything until after the New Year. i remember it showing in March twice in the past 12 years lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Euro is a 1-3 inch event on Christmas eve/ day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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