Deck Pic Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Since 1950, there has never been more than 2 consecutive DJF periods that would be classified as la Nina, so 3 in a row seems unlikely. Neutral seems to be the most reasonable guess based only on prior trends 1954-57, 1973-1976, 1998-2001 were all 3 season events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Latest euro isn't as crappy. Not good but at least there is something brewing in TX in days 9-10. As is, there is near zero chance at a threat other than rain. Maybe a Christmas miracle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 far from it go back and look at all our AN snow winters since 1980 (and I say 1980 because before that date it is not so true) just about every one was an E QBO; yeah, 2 glaring exceptions and they were the one big storm in the months of 2/83 and 3/93 which were both W QBO winters but every other great year had an E QBO I don't know, nor do I care, why I just know the numbers don't lie 95-96, 02-03 were essentially neutral...Easterly QBO does suggest a higher probability of blocking, but I don't think it is that useful as a standalone index....some of our easterly QBO winters have sucked.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 1954-57, 1973-1976, 1998-2001 were all 3 season events. I just looked back and that was some poor chart reading skills on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 95-96, 02-03 were essentially neutral...Easterly QBO does suggest a higher probability of blocking, but I don't think it is that useful as a standalone index....some of our easterly QBO winters have sucked.... 95/96 and 02/03 DJF were all E QBO (negative), barely so or not, they were E QBO I agree with you about E QBO winters can be crappy, but my thread explains the key seems to be a dropping QBO beginning June or later (meaning 95/96 and 02/03 qualify); those are the ones that have all been AN snows, if not historic for us like I said, I don't know why, but the "odds" are in our favor and when one considers all the very smart and very well respected people who have come up with seasonal forecasts that have crashed and burned, I like the odds of the E QBO with the parameters I mentioned and will not feel embarrassed if it doesn't work this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Latest euro isn't as crappy. Not good but at least there is something brewing in TX in days 9-10. As is, there is near zero chance at a threat other than rain. Maybe a Christmas miracle? it is still far away, but that threat looks improbable for us...the pattern does look better though, but still a pretty frustrating pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Latest euro isn't as crappy. Not good but at least there is something brewing in TX in days 9-10. As is, there is near zero chance at a threat other than rain. Maybe a Christmas miracle? for NE and the MW, it has been bad but for our area, little or no snow through most of DEC is not always the kiss of death at BWI, there have been more than a few winters with <1" of snow through DEC that ended up with "OK" seasonal snow totals, and a few above normal obviously, odds don't favor a great year when you essentially cut off a 1/3 of the season, but I still expect JAN, and possibly MAR, to perform around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 It really is a frustrating pattern. I started getting worried in mid Nov but my weenie side kept telling me otherwise. I know hindsight is 20/20 and all but it was pretty clear early on in Nov that Dec was in trouble. Just pull up the AO graph from September on. That was just one of the many indications that we were potentially headed for trouble. Seeing the static state of the pac and atl is a bummer because it doesn't even give hope for a "freak" event. At least not this month anyway. I agree with most about Jan - Feb though. We have plenty of cold air nearby and there have been plenty of precip makers around. We just need them to be introduced to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Time to ride the winter dosent start till dec 21st to buy some more time. It dosent snow in the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Time to ride the winter dosent start till dec 21st to buy some more time. It dosent snow in the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Snow hole... again.... boo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 FWIW...DT's still honking about a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). If true, that could serve to flip the AO to negative and give us a much better chance at cold air locking in. we have a met at the government facility I work at...he mentioned SSW as a strong possibility because of the persistient AO and may change things in a big way after Xmas...does anyone here think this is likely to occur. is it something that would be evident on the models? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 we have a met at the government facility I work at...he mentioned SSW as a strong possibility because of the persistient AO and may change things in a big way after Xmas...does anyone here think this is likely to occur. is it something that would be evident on the models? Just curious. What does SSW stand for? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 What does SSW stand for? Thanks Sudden Stratospheric Warming....the winds of the polar vortex switch directions I think...can be a game changer and this year we could use it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Sudden Stratospheric Warming....the winds of the polar vortex switch directions I think...can be a game changer and this year we could use it Thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I like the way this guy thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I like the way this guy thinks Thanks...gives some hope....it would be great to check the models in Xmas eve and see an arctic front stalls to our south with overrunning that lasts for a couple days...just wishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Almost an overunning event this weekend on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 has anyone sounded the ji alarm yet? surprised there isnt a weekend secs thread yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 GFS comes through with a nugget of hope. As weak as it may be, the wave is there and might be just enough to put some white stuff in the air this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 for 5 days out it's not that good even for a cold rain.. i mean it only needs half a whiff to go bad already. the 500 vort is kinda meh and not a great pass--interesting to see if it continues and then also if that vort ends up a little more robust, the overall 500 pattern is super ugly. i guess at least there's a high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'm huggin the great New Year's Eve Storm of 2011 on the 384-hour GFS. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'm watching the weekend low with passion now. It has been showing up continuously on the ensembles. Anything after this weekend looks meh so I'm hoping something materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'm watching the weekend low with passion now. It has been showing up continuously on the ensembles. Anything after this weekend looks meh so I'm hoping something materializes. we've seen these setups a number of times the last few Ninas and they don't work out....there is never any moisture in the cold sector.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 we've seen these setups a number of times the last few Ninas and they don't work out....there is never any moisture in the cold sector.... Probably, it's always too good to be true down here in the sub-tropics. Awaiting stronger model support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 0z GFS Ensemble mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Probably, it's always too good to be true down here in the sub-tropics. Awaiting stronger model support... 0z euro is pretty much the same as 12Z....gets a tiny bit of moisture up here.....don't get too attached to this one.....we saw this last winter and even with a better setup they either didn't materialize at all or there was some pixie dust and a cartop trace for someone..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 For what it's worth the 00Z Euro ensemble followed the 12Z with showing a pretty strong signal on height rises for Western Canada into Alaska for the 7 to 10 day period. 00Z GFS ensemble while a weaker signal is also showing hints of this as well. The GFS also looks as if it wants to build heights into Greenland though this seems somewhat transitory in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 we've seen these setups a number of times the last few Ninas and they don't work out....there is never any moisture in the cold sector.... I would have to agree with this. Even if it does pan out it would be flurries. The 6Z GFS agrees with you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Wxtrix got banned from OT. Totally disagree with that but it's kind of funny. She is now just a weather poster. First time I've laughted this terrible winter LOL...has she been banned / susp. before? Funny I just made a little stink about it in a different thread.Yeah...that zero line is exciting to see, but I've learned my lessen about trusting it. I'm getting an itch to see snow bad though...so my weenism will be hard to restrain. I did like that CWG was posting already about the White Christmas chances by statistics and such. I think I RT'd one of their tweets. If not, I likely will. Kinda hate how everyone always asks about it. I also hate how everyone (well everyone as in the gen. public) always has these phantom memories of many white Christmases (and other Dec. Holidays). At least the cold today was enjoyable. In Alexandria it was great when the sun was shining on ya. Reminded me a little of Denver (cold but sunny). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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