MN Transplant Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Next 16 days on the 12z GFS. Pretty brown Christmas for a lot of places if this comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Next 16 days on the 12z GFS. Pretty brown Christmas for a lot of places if this comes to fruition. The advertised coming positive EPO look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Next 16 days on the 12z GFS. Pretty brown Christmas for a lot of places if this comes to fruition. Well, at least it would be chilly/cold for Christmas. Better brown and 35-40F then brown and 60F. The storm next Thursday (22nd) is worth keeping an eye on. Much too warm as currently progged, but the vort and surface low take a nice track for our area. Perhaps it will trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Well, at least it would be chilly/cold for Christmas. Better brown and 35-40F then brown and 60F. The storm next Thursday (22nd) is worth keeping an eye on. Much too warm as currently progged, but the vort and surface low take a nice track for our area. Perhaps it will trend colder. I think a window of opportunity along the lines of 1/00 is what we can hope for when the current +AO regime switches in late this month/early JAN. I still think the sun has been our nemesis which wasn't anticipated by anyone, not that it could have been to any great degree. Then the question will be whether we can score when given a more favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 If it wasn't for the +ao/nao, 1031 HP parked off the NC coast, the edless string of lp's dropping out of the GOA, and complete lack of any favoable high latitude ridging, the latest GFS would have been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 that was a lucky pattern....that isn't something I would ever predict...though if you can get a block, crazy things can happen It was but in most years we have at least one semi-lucky event, usually not quite as nice as that one but if we could get a couple of 3-5 inch events, I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 that was a lucky pattern....that isn't something I would ever predict...though if you can get a block, crazy things can happen I would assume that the AO and NAO are going to relax a few times before either index moves into negative territory for any sustained period (if they do at all). The october snowstorm featured a relaxed (but not negative) NAO and followed a very brief period of a -AO (cold air source? not sure). As we move into late Dec - early Feb we can easily get snow (although usually not big storms) with a neutral NAO and AO. It's been a stinker so far this year with both the atlantic and pacific. Just a craptastic setup and seems stubborn as hell. I think you were the one who responded to one of my posts about the AO and said we don't need arctic air to be cold enough for snow. Very true. Even if the pattern never does the opposite flip this winter we will probably do ok. I'd like to start with some sort of ridging around alaska somewhere. We'll see what transpires in the next couple of weeks. I'd take my chances with a neutral ao/nao and a positive pna at this point. That's probably the first look we'll see before any real block or cold air transport sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I'd be happy with a 1" event. Maybe there will be some signs of hope by Christmas. I just finished a xmas week pattern/snow chances piece for CWG. I think it will be run tomorrow which means I may still tweak it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 that was a lucky pattern....that isn't something I would ever predict...though if you can get a block, crazy things can happen 14" imby and <4" in BOS followed by rain the word "lucky" cannot even begin to describe that storm all kidding aside, that was a great 3 week period with an seemingly often forgotten initial event of around 5" the week before the 1/25 storm and then the 4-6"+ event 1/31/00 (I believe that was the date) that was definitely maxing out w/a good pattern and I agree w/you, we shouldn't expect to be that lucky again over a 3 week stretch, but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I just finished a xmas week pattern/snow chances piece for CWG. I think it will be run tomorrow which means I may still tweak it tonight. we have the same chance for a white christmas as tampa bay. Our goal is that on christmas, we are seeing some better things on the horizon. I can live with that. If its Christmas and the 384 gfs shows lows in canada and highs in Tennesee...winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I just finished a xmas week pattern/snow chances piece for CWG. I think it will be run tomorrow which means I may still tweak it tonight. great, I'll get you my ideas before then as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 are we getting a Nino next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 are we getting a Nino next winter? I don't think so but with a W QBO, I'm not certain we want it (I'll have to check) better to save it for the following year when there's a shot at an E QBO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 OT but for some reason every time someone posts QBO I always think of the Simpsons episode when their playing scrabble and Bart spells quijibo. I'll take enso neutral next year. At the very least no more Nina's for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 FWIW...DT's still honking about a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). If true, that could serve to flip the AO to negative and give us a much better chance at cold air locking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Your obsession with the QBO is weird. far from it go back and look at all our AN snow winters since 1980 (and I say 1980 because before that date it is not so true) just about every one was an E QBO; yeah, 2 glaring exceptions and they were the one big storm in the months of 2/83 and 3/93 which were both W QBO winters but every other great year had an E QBO I don't know, nor do I care, why I just know the numbers don't lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I just know the numbers don't lie They don't? You sure about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 They don't? You sure about that? I can see you're going to be one of the difficult ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Neutrals after cold periods tend to have a lag effect and take on characteristics of the prior enso state. They aren't usually very good. Rarely snowy. My wild guess would be we have a 3rd year Nina next winter. LOL- I'm a number nerd and already went back through a bunch of neutral after nina's. Not a pretty list. You realize your post implies that you are potentially canceling next winter? Ji is gonna faint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Neutrals after cold periods tend to have a lag effect and take on characteristics of the prior enso state. They aren't usually very good. Rarely snowy. My wild guess would be we have a 3rd year Nina next winter. Since 1950, there has never been more than 2 consecutive DJF periods that would be classified as la Nina, so 3 in a row seems unlikely. Neutral seems to be the most reasonable guess based only on prior trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Latest euro isn't as crappy. Not good but at least there is something brewing in TX in days 9-10. As is, there is near zero chance at a threat other than rain. Maybe a Christmas miracle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 1954-57, 1973-1976, 1998-2001 were all 3 season events. I just looked back and that was some poor chart reading skills on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 95-96, 02-03 were essentially neutral...Easterly QBO does suggest a higher probability of blocking, but I don't think it is that useful as a standalone index....some of our easterly QBO winters have sucked.... 95/96 and 02/03 DJF were all E QBO (negative), barely so or not, they were E QBO I agree with you about E QBO winters can be crappy, but my thread explains the key seems to be a dropping QBO beginning June or later (meaning 95/96 and 02/03 qualify); those are the ones that have all been AN snows, if not historic for us like I said, I don't know why, but the "odds" are in our favor and when one considers all the very smart and very well respected people who have come up with seasonal forecasts that have crashed and burned, I like the odds of the E QBO with the parameters I mentioned and will not feel embarrassed if it doesn't work this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Latest euro isn't as crappy. Not good but at least there is something brewing in TX in days 9-10. As is, there is near zero chance at a threat other than rain. Maybe a Christmas miracle? for NE and the MW, it has been bad but for our area, little or no snow through most of DEC is not always the kiss of death at BWI, there have been more than a few winters with <1" of snow through DEC that ended up with "OK" seasonal snow totals, and a few above normal obviously, odds don't favor a great year when you essentially cut off a 1/3 of the season, but I still expect JAN, and possibly MAR, to perform around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 It really is a frustrating pattern. I started getting worried in mid Nov but my weenie side kept telling me otherwise. I know hindsight is 20/20 and all but it was pretty clear early on in Nov that Dec was in trouble. Just pull up the AO graph from September on. That was just one of the many indications that we were potentially headed for trouble. Seeing the static state of the pac and atl is a bummer because it doesn't even give hope for a "freak" event. At least not this month anyway. I agree with most about Jan - Feb though. We have plenty of cold air nearby and there have been plenty of precip makers around. We just need them to be introduced to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Time to ride the winter dosent start till dec 21st to buy some more time. It dosent snow in the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Time to ride the winter dosent start till dec 21st to buy some more time. It dosent snow in the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Snow hole... again.... boo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 FWIW...DT's still honking about a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). If true, that could serve to flip the AO to negative and give us a much better chance at cold air locking in. we have a met at the government facility I work at...he mentioned SSW as a strong possibility because of the persistient AO and may change things in a big way after Xmas...does anyone here think this is likely to occur. is it something that would be evident on the models? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 we have a met at the government facility I work at...he mentioned SSW as a strong possibility because of the persistient AO and may change things in a big way after Xmas...does anyone here think this is likely to occur. is it something that would be evident on the models? Just curious. What does SSW stand for? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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