2011 Winter Banter Thread

[H2O]

At least Ellinwood tries to verify his forecast.. others completely sweep it under the rug when they're wrong even in part. This is a pretty tough area to forecast for and he's picked it up really fast which shows he knows what he is doing. I have no real problem with mitchnick but I do always find it weird how being weenie is so much more forgivable than being a 'serious' forecaster. There are people here who have been here for far too long to make the statements they do before every winter threat. To me that's more annoying than someone sometimes thinking they know it all.

It will snow when the models show the next storm. I know it will. The E QBO, CRAS, SNO, isollabaric charts all back me. I've been here 5 years.

[Bob Chill]

I must be staring at models too much. The 240hr 500mb NA panel on the 0z euro on raleigh's site is showing canada having a nice rack.

[nj2va]

I'm glad I stick to making useless posts and saying "MORE SNOW!"

[mitchnick]

I must be staring at models too much. The 240hr 500mb NA panel on the 0z euro on raleigh's site is showing canada having a nice rack.

there is definitely an effort by the Euro to start showing some blocking across the Pole by day 10

time will tell

E QBO for the.......oh, never mind

[EastCoast NPZ]

It should snow every 4 days from Dec 1 to Feb 28 every year. That is what I want.

It should snow EVERY day from Dec 1 to Apr 1. Why do I live in the mid-atlantic?

[Ian]

I must be staring at models too much. The 240hr 500mb NA panel on the 0z euro on raleigh's site is showing canada having a nice rack.

decent positive heights building over the north pole by 240... pretty terrible through then at least. not sure i believe it either.. but they've been hinting at something changing by late month.

[kurtstack]

At least Ellinwood tries to verify his forecast.. others completely sweep it under the rug when they're wrong even in part. This is a pretty tough area to forecast for and he's picked it up really fast which shows he knows what he is doing. I have no real problem with mitchnick but I do always find it weird how being weenie is so much more forgivable than being a 'serious' forecaster. There are people here who have been here for far too long to make the statements they do before every winter threat. To me that's more annoying than someone sometimes thinking they know it all.

One thing I have learned over the years is that meteorology is a very humbling field. You can educate yourself til the cows come home with fluid dynamics, teleconnections, analogs, pattern recognition, etc., and even when you think you've mastered all of that, any individual attempt to forecast a snowstorm beyond 48 hours out is only slightly better than rolling dice.

In fact, Ji probably has just as much of a chance at predicting what's going to happen on Dec. 20th as anybody else on these boards.

However, someone who understands all of these things is better at identifying general time periods (4-5 day periods) where the various pieces to the puzzle are more favorable for an event. I think most of us do learn a decent amount from reading posts by the red tags. Still, there is no reason to get "annoyed" by weenie posts in a "banter" thread. We are all here because we have a common interest, and this particular thread is for "banter". So, I read it for the weenie entertainment as much as I do for the red tag analysis.

Jebwalk posts and Ji's JMA bombogensis maps are pure entertainment for me, while I always look to Wes for the skilled local forecast within 72 hours of a possible event. I value them both for different reasons.

Anyway - Ellinwood and Mitchnick continue on with your pissing contest, because that is more entertaining than this weeks weather...

[PhineasC]

At least Ellinwood tries to verify his forecast.. others completely sweep it under the rug when they're wrong even in part. This is a pretty tough area to forecast for and he's picked it up really fast which shows he knows what he is doing. I have no real problem with mitchnick but I do always find it weird how being weenie is so much more forgivable than being a 'serious' forecaster. There are people here who have been here for far too long to make the statements they do before every winter threat. To me that's more annoying than someone sometimes thinking they know it all.

I am not really here for science or to discuss the finer points of forecasting flurries. I'm here to shoot the bull and dream about snow.

[usedtobe]

there is definitely an effort by the Euro to start showing some blocking across the Pole by day 10

time will tell

E QBO for the.......oh, never mind

I think it actually looked alot better when DT was starting to advertise a pattern change. The pattern still looks bad to me. I still see a positive nao. The higher heights up towards northern AK might help get cross polar flow going if it is real. The GFS ensemble mean still shows a postive AO through 384 hrs. I guess we can hope.

[Ian]

One thing I have learned over the years is that meteorology is a very humbling field. You can educate yourself til the cows come home with fluid dynamics, teleconnections, analogs, pattern recognition, etc., and even when you think you've mastered all of that, any individual attempt to forecast a snowstorm beyond 48 hours out is only slightly better than rolling dice.

In fact, Ji probably has just as much of a chance at predicting what's going to happen on Dec. 20th as anybody else on these boards.

However, someone who understands all of these things is better at identifying general time periods (4-5 day periods) where the various pieces to the puzzle are more favorable for an event. I think most of us do learn a decent amount from reading posts by the red tags. Still, there is no reason to get "annoyed" by weenie posts in a "banter" thread. We are all here because we have a common interest, and this particular thread is for "banter". So, I read it for the weenie entertainment as much as I do for the red tag analysis.

Jebwalk posts and Ji's JMA bombogensis maps are pure entertainment for me, while I always look to Wes for the skilled local forecast within 72 hours of a possible event. I value them both for different reasons.

Anyway - Ellinwood and Mitchnick continue on with your pissing contest, because that is more entertaining than this weeks weather...

I agree for the most part. Heck, other than the O I am not sure what QBO stands for. Some folks are noticeably good with these long range indices but I think much of it is still pretty much a guessing game. There's a reason I personally focus almost entirely on the short to medium range.. as you say there is still much that can go wrong there. But I think actual research and previous experience can have significantly more pay off. We see that almost every storm at day 3 or so when people start making snowfall forecasts for the city in a storm which does not drop 1 flake unless you're looking really hard.

I was not talking about this thread in particular myself either. I realize how it is titled etc. I'd be perfectly content at all times if it was always somewhat split up. Part of the reason I don't like seeing model play by play in the storm specific threads is all that random talk washes out the insightful posts which of course are intermixed. I guess another thing with me is I do look at or spend time on several other outlets that have way less knowledgeable folks than here on the hole. In that regard I still see an AmWx as the elite group when it comes to weather discussion. When I see things here I'd see on wunderground or Facebook among others I wonder why I'm even looking at it... For the most part I just deal and realize maybe I'm in the minority. Of course I don't want this place totally sanitized either.. that's boring.

[easternsnowman]

DT does actually forecast and does'nt hug models like some claim.

[Bob Chill]

_{I went back through all of the +AO decembers with a monthly reading of .8 or higher since 1950 and looked at the NAO. Here is the list of the +AO Decembers:}

₁₉₇₂

₁₉₇₉

₁₉₈₂

₁₉₈₈

₁₉₉₀

₁₉₉₁

₁₉₉₂

₁₉₉₄

₁₉₉₈

₁₉₉₉

₂₀₀₄

₂₀₀₆

_{All 12 featured a +NAO during the same month. This isn't surprising because it's not very common (or possible?) to get a solid +AO / -NAO month during the winter months.}

_{Of the 12, only one -NAO January followed and that was Jan of 1980. The index wasn't that strong though because the monthly reading came in at -.75.}

_{I went ahead and rolled to Feb and Mar to see if anything promising popped up and it wasn't good. 1983 had a -.53 Feb, 2005 had a -1.83 March, and 2007 had a -.47 March.}

_{From a strictly statistical standpoint (over a relatively small dataset), a +AO December is a pretty bad omen for the winter as a whole. I know some of these winters listed above were'nt busts or duds but none featured prolonged cold and blocking.}

_{I'm starting to think this winter is going to come in a brief shot (3-5 weeks or so at best) with potential random events in between.}

_{Here's the temp anomaly map for Jan-Feb following +AO Decembers:}

_{If you break out the months individually, Jan is pretty warm and Feb is close to normal. This makes sense to me because breaking down a pretty solid +AO in winter takes some time. January is a battle ground and Feb would likely have a better chance at being colder than average.}

_{I know having the warmest anomalies in the upper midwest probably isn't a good fit for this winter because it's a Nina year but the EC is a different story.}

_{I really have no idea how this winter will play out but if I had to place a wager today, I would go warm. Snow is a different story. I like the 500 low tracks so far. Those haven't been nina'ish. Hitting climo snow in an overall above normal temp winter can easily happen.}

[Ian]

A Feb 83 wouldnt be so bad

[mattie g]

i like winter when it snows.. and that's about all. im not even really a fan of snow on the ground after it's done.. well, the first day or so perhaps.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[PhineasC]

This will be the worst winter in 10 years.

[mitchnick]

This will be the worst winter in 10 years.

meh, and if it is, we'll all be back next year......like it or not!

[SeanVA]

This will be the worst winter in 10 years.

07-08

[Ian]

This will be the worst winter in 10 years.

We've got at least 3-4 weeks before needing to worry about that I think. Maybe more as winter can be made relatively quickly around here.

But I'd be very cautious personally about any previous storm tracks etc if the pattern changes. We've "lucked out" with a few vorts diving over or just south of us.. but I'm not sure why we'd think that would re-appear under a different pattern. Though, we do really only need one at the right time...

[VAsnowlvr82]

Whether it snows or not I hope its cold. It should at least feel like winter for three months of the year!

[Deck Pic]

This will be the worst winter in 10 years.

I think most of us will wind up doing better than 2007-08....but you may be right

[NeedaSnowday]

A Feb 83 wouldnt be so bad

What a great memory!! I'll take it!

[usedtobe]

Bob,

Interesting post,

Despite the crappy monthly nao averages, those 12 years were not all terrible snow years for washington. . Only 4 of the 12 produced under 10 inches of snow at DCA for the year. Three, 1999-2000, 1979-1980 and 1982-1983, produced above normal snowfall with the heaviest being 21 in 1982-1983. I'd kick both 1982-1983 and 1972-1973 (a year with only 0.1") off the list as both were strong el ninos. The majority of the years produced amounts in the 11-13 inch range and had snow in Jan.

[Deck Pic]

It is worth keeping an eye on Nina.....it has definitely waned a bit over the last couple weeks.....I have no idea if it will restrengthen...I imagine it will oscillate back and forth some....That isn't to say the PAC looks good...It doesn't...It looks awful....the PDO is sharply negative.......But the bigger Ninas (98-99, 99-00, 07-08) were all much more formidable by this point.....If we can get other factors in our favor in January/Feb we may be able to mitigate Nina's influence if it remains weaker or perhaps its remaining weaker will allow some other factors to be more influential

[usedtobe]

Matt, the euro amplitude of the ridge into western AK suggests that the plains will get the first dump of true arctic air into the country. Some of that will try to come eastward towards the holidays but we'll still have a strongly positive ao which probably means cold, low tracks to far north and west so we warm up, then maybe get cold again. I don't see this as a true pattern change for us but others may disagree. It looks like the cold cycle of the la nina pattern that I posted about in my below normal snow is likely for dc in dc post. If the arctic air does get into our area we might luck out and get a weak wave come by after the front comes thru. I think the odds are still stacked against us but I'm not as convinced I'm right as I have been in this pattern.

Of course first, we'd have to go thru the euro torch that it is forecasting on day 10.

[Deck Pic]

Matt, the euro amplitude of the ridge into western AK suggests that the plains will get the first dump of true arctic air into the country. Some of that will try to come eastward towards the holidays but we'll still have a strongly positive ao which probably means cold, low tracks to far north and west so we warm up, then maybe get cold again. I don't see this as a true pattern change for us but others may disagree. It looks like the cold cycle of the la nina pattern that I posted about in my below normal snow is likely for dc in dc post. If the arctic air does get into our area we might luck out and get a weak wave come by after the front comes thru. I think the odds are still stacked against us but I'm not as convinced I'm right as I have been in this pattern.

Of course first, we'd have to go thru the euro torch that it is forecasting on day 10.

yes..we just crossed posts...just posted in the other thread after I saw the euro..

[Deck Pic]

yes..we just crossed posts...just posted in the other thread after I saw the euro..

Here is what Wes is talking about..also posted in the other thread...

I will also add that we saw the Euro last winter keep advertising a low off the NW coast kind of what it is hinting at below and I don't think it ever came to fruition...If you can get something to close off in that area and stabilize, it can be a pretty awesome pattern as you can get the flow to split...but other things still have to be in your favor....a block would certainly help

[BethesdaWX]

I think looking at the SSTs is somewhat superficial because they seem to be more of a reflection of atmospheric influence? The AAM/GLAAM and MJO might be better tools to use?  In analyzing the La Nina mode where it matters (atmospheric momentum driving the total state).

[kurtstack]

DT does actually forecast and does'nt hug models like some claim.

All I can seem to get from DT on facebook is Euro updates.

[Wonderdog]

Possible light precip. next Saturday according to 6z GFS, maybe even some mixed stuff.

[MN Transplant]

Think we are doing poorly? It is December 11th, and Fargo has less than an inch of snow on the season.