2011 Winter Banter Thread

[hazwoper]

Pleased with season so far IMBY.

Today's high just tease over freezing at 32.4 and last night 1.8 " has held up nicely.

Picture of webcam moments ago:

WOW! What an absolutely beautiful location!

[RickinBaltimore]

NOAA is in the holiday spirit:

[usedtobe]

dt is talking about a d10 pattern change.. again

Of course he could always end up being right, eventually the patten is goign to change. I still think the euro day 10 is too early based on Don's work and on the Baldwin and Dunkerton stuff, but who really knows. The mjo also would argue that may be too quick. The euro does like blocking patterns at times so I won't get excited until it has the same forecast inside of 5 days or unless it has the samegneral idea for several runs. Last night's run looked horrid.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

With the way things are looking, I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed with this winter... and I'm not just talking about the mid-atlantic.

[Amped]

With the way things are looking, I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed with this winter... and I'm not just talking about the mid-atlantic.

Not me, I am expecting 0" this winter, I can't be disappointed unless I get -1"

[WinterWxLuvr]

I don't think it's pessimism. It's more realism than anything. Nobody is really crying or on the ledge. Probably because it's December though. If this was late Jan it would be a different story.

I do think a cold Jan might be at risk. I didn't like my ao research. +ao decembers = +ao januarys 10 out of 11 times in the last 60 years. It's just one index though so I'm not all hung up on it. I'm going to take some time later and compare the nao for those 11 years and see what shakes out.

I really don't know crap about the mjo other than the basic effects. The current cycle is kinda strong and isn't showing signs of fizzling. Timing of the favorable 8-2 phases looks to coincide with the end of the month so we'll see.

Wasn't it about a week ago that all the ensemble forecasts had this wave dying and entering the COD? Sure looks strong to me, if the diagram is an indicator. In fact, would appear to be strengthening.

Am I remembering incorrectly and/or reading the diagram incorrectly?

[TalcottWx]

Least the 18z GFS has a ridge on the west coast and cold air during the run..

[Bob Chill]

Wasn't it about a week ago that all the ensemble forecasts had this wave dying and entering the COD? Sure looks strong to me, if the diagram is an indicator. In fact, would appear to be strengthening.

Am I remembering incorrectly and/or reading the diagram incorrectly?

I was actually trying to find that same post with the ens forecast because I was thinking the same thing. They were all showing a major fizzle in phases 5-6 right? And yes, you are correct about it looking really healthy right now. I hadn't looked at the mjo for about a week and I was pretty stoked at how it's looking right now.

I've said this before but I only know enough about the mjo to be dangerous. I hope someone with good knowledge can chime in and drop some good words about where the mjo is heading.

Edit: I found the ens forecast.

[mitchnick]

Not me, I am expecting 0" this winter, I can't be disappointed unless I get -1"

yeah, and since we haven't had any snow for the "suits" at the NWS to start subtracting snow totals at BWI, we're safe on that score!

[mitchnick]

Least the 18z GFS has a ridge on the west coast and cold air during the run..

got that right

even has a storm that looks a lot like yesterday's system hitting us, but with plenty of cold air for snow

and 228 hrs will just fly by, you watch

actually, I was kidding; it's probably the best long range run of the GFS all season

[mitchnick]

I'll said it yesterday and I'll say it again, this year is too wet to be like other recent NINA's that have screwed us...something else is at work

I still think it's the E QBO, and it will save us, one way or the other

[Bob Chill]

Heh, you dragged me in mitch......you dragged me in......

I saw the 216 through 240 panels. It almost looks like overrunning. Open wave down in TX throwing moisture up our way and then the 850 takes over offshore. Fantasy land thermal profiles look good. I guess it's something to enjoy before 0z yanks it away.

Notice the bit of ridging popping up over greenland? Is our long lost blocking friend going to visit for xmas?

[kurtstack]

I'll said it yesterday and I'll say it again, this year is too wet to be like other recent NINA's that have screwed us...something else is at work

I still think it's the E QBO, and it will save us, one way or the other

I'm with you. The high precipitation events have been hitting us this year and the oct/dec storm tracks were excellent. If we get one of those 500 vort tracks toward the end of Dec and beginning of January we'll all be happy. This years favored storm track is on our side. I just afraid that if we get a little blocking in place the storm track may shift too far south. That said I like the pattern I'm seeing from the models toward the end of the month corresponding with a weakening AO.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

I was actually trying to find that same post with the ens forecast because I was thinking the same thing. They were all showing a major fizzle in phases 5-6 right? And yes, you are correct about it looking really healthy right now. I hadn't looked at the mjo for about a week and I was pretty stoked at how it's looking right now.

I've said this before but I only know enough about the mjo to be dangerous. I hope someone with good knowledge can chime in and drop some good words about where the mjo is heading.

Edit: I found the ens forecast.

made into 5 but still shows it free falling

[stormitecture]

That AO stat (10 of 11 over 60 year period) is interesting. Gotta find me some online info for that to blog about. Somewhere or another we'll see a 'balance'...but I've learned over the years it may balance out at different time. I frankly though don't mind if the snow is delayed...my Jeep isn't ready, and if it holds to Jan-Mar, then I can make sure to cover the storms.

[mattie g]

Heh, you dragged me in mitch......you dragged me in......

I saw the 216 through 240 panels. It almost looks like overrunning. Open wave down in TX throwing moisture up our way and then the 850 takes over offshore. Fantasy land thermal profiles look good. I guess it's something to enjoy before 0z yanks it away.

Notice the bit of ridging popping up over greenland? Is our long lost blocking friend going to visit for xmas?

That storm was suppressed at 12Z. Without big blocking, I think it's unlikely the storm gets further suppressed on the models - it'll either fizzle or trend north. It'll probably be all over the place - up and down - over the next few days.

[Bob Chill]

made into 5 but still shows it free falling

Dayum! Hard to argue with total consensus. boooooo

[TalcottWx]

got that right

even has a storm that looks a lot like yesterday's system hitting us, but with plenty of cold air for snow

and 228 hrs will just fly by, you watch

actually, I was kidding; it's probably the best long range run of the GFS all season

Want consistency

[BethesdaWX]

I don't think it's pessimism. It's more realism than anything. Nobody is really crying or on the ledge. Probably because it's December though. If this was late Jan it would be a different story.

I do think a cold Jan might be at risk. I didn't like my ao research. +ao decembers = +ao januarys 10 out of 11 times in the last 60 years. It's just one index though so I'm not all hung up on it. I'm going to take some time later and compare the nao for those 11 years and see what shakes out.

I really don't know crap about the mjo other than the basic effects. The current cycle is kinda strong and isn't showing signs of fizzling. Timing of the favorable 8-2 phases looks to coincide with the end of the month so we'll see.

Ok I'm gonna try and throw a bone to the weenies...winter of 1898/99, DC's now second snowiest winter ever behind 2009/10...2nd year La Nina, +AMO, -PDO... DC ended up with 54" of snow or something like that. Raging +AO most of the winter, periods of strong SE ridging. 1967/68 and 1962/63 are also viable analogs.

December 1898: raging +AO, +PNA-ish

January 1899: +AO, SE ridge, flatter PNA, -NAO develops later on,

February 1899: West based -NAO, -AO, +PNA, Frigid USA.

Just sayin', all this "ugh +AO +AO +AO!" "winters over" shiat is annoying as hell sometimes.

I'm looking forward to what I think will turn out to be a great winter, not even looking at 1898/99 I felt the same way. I expect to be given no weight or serious attention, and thats the way I'd like it in this case

[clskinsfan]

I'll said it yesterday and I'll say it again, this year is too wet to be like other recent NINA's that have screwed us...something else is at work

I still think it's the E QBO, and it will save us, one way or the other

Also the storm tracks this fall have been very good for us to get snow. Just have not had the cold air yet. It will come.

[clskinsfan]

Merry Christmas

[BethesdaWX]

I'll said it yesterday and I'll say it again, this year is too wet to be like other recent NINA's that have screwed us...something else is at work

I still think it's the E QBO, and it will save us, one way or the other

Agree there, not sure if the QBO has enough forcing right now to be the culprit but who knows. I think it's the fact that geomag activity has been rock bottom, and that the suns magnetic field is almost non existant in polarity right now. Other years where this occured in the proper PDO phase were 1967/68 and 1898/99, so it's a small sample size. Not saying it means anything to this winter, it may mean nothing. But Both years featured raging +AOs in either November and/or December and were second year La Ninas.

[mattie g]

Agree there, not sure if the QBO has enough forcing right now to be the culprit but who knows. I think it's the fact that geomag activity has been rock bottom, and that the suns magnetic field is almost non existant in polarity right now. Other years where this occured in the proper PDO phase were 1967/68 and 1898/99, so it's a small sample size. Not saying it means anything to this winter, it may mean nothing. But Both years featured raging +AOs in either November and/or December and were second year La Ninas.

There's been an uptick in sunspots recently. A question from someone who knows nothing about the sun/solar geomagnetism/etc.: What does that increase in sunspots mean in regards to your feelings on the effects of solar on the weather?

[usedtobe]

Ok I'm gonna try and throw a bone to the weenies...winter of 1898/99, DC's now second snowiest winter ever behind 2009/10...2nd year La Nina, +AMO, -PDO... DC ended up with 54" of snow or something like that. Raging +AO most of the winter, periods of strong SE ridging. 1967/68 and 1962/63 are also viable analogs.

December 1898: raging +AO, +PNA-ish

January 1899: +AO, SE ridge, flatter PNA, -NAO develops later on,

February 1899: West based -NAO, -AO, +PNA, Frigid USA.

Just sayin', all this "ugh +AO +AO +AO!" "winters over" shiat is annoying as hell sometimes.

I'm looking forward to what I think will turn out to be a great winter, not even looking at 1898/99 I felt the same way. I expect to be given no weight or serious attention, and thats the way I'd like it in this case

Let's look at the stratosphere, it allowed for the switch to a negative ao later in the winter. not the weaker than normal polar vortex Jan-feb. I don't think any of us said that the AO would stay positive all winter. I suspect there will be a break and we'll see a negative period somewhere down the line but to be honest that's just a guess. The weaker than normal stratospheric winds made it easier to pop a negative nao and ao that winter.

[Ian]

Merry Christmas

that looks familiar if you chop it and remove accumulation east of the mtns

[TalcottWx]

Another day, another group of less than favorable runs for the metros.

[BethesdaWX]

Let's look at the stratosphere, it allowed for the switch to a negative ao later in the winter. not the weaker than normal polar vortex Jan-feb. I don't think any of us said that the AO would stay positive all winter. I suspect there will be a break and we'll see a negative period somewhere down the line but to be honest that's just a guess. The weaker than normal stratospheric winds made it easier to pop a negative nao and ao that winter.

Thanks, it's something I want to watch closely. DonS's post in the main forum affirmed based on how long the regimes usually last, that the current +AO/cold vortex shouldn't abate in December, if not longer. If the reconstructed composite is correct, the cold vortex seems quite prevolent in December 1898 continuing through the first half of January before it might have been penetrated by a wave that probably surfaced in a different region than the exterior riders, if the reconstructed composite is correct:

December 1 thru Janruary 15:

http://www.esrl.noaa...20thc.day.v2.pl

[Bob Chill]

Latest gfs is hideous. Didn't expect it to be good though. Last night's 18z didn't really make much sense given the setup.

I'm impressed at how stubborn the larger scale features are. I don't remember the last time I've seen things locked in like this.

I'm going to take advantage of the warm shots though. Looking like we'll have some days in the upper 50's over the next 2 weeks.

[BethesdaWX]

There's been an uptick in sunspots recently. A question from someone who knows nothing about the sun/solar geomagnetism/etc.: What does that increase in sunspots mean in regards to your feelings on the effects of solar on the weather?

The number of sunspots doesn't mean anything really, it's what affects earth's atmosphere that matters, CMEs, the solar wind reaching earth, so on and so forth, IMO, should be focused on. The sunspot count is high, but the sunspots in this cycle are very small with low discharge rates compared to past solar cycles.

Like most in my family I am a strong believer in solar influence on the climate machine, I study the sun as much as I can when I have nothing better to do. When it comes to this solar cycle, it looks to me like the last legitimate solar cycle in a long time (for at least 30 years). With a potential return to a maunder-like minimum.

A maunder-like minimum would probably make alot of people in the MA forum quite happy, the -AO with the maunder minimum was almost a constant, where the thames river, NY harbor, etc, would freeze over, even the chesapeake bay required icebreakers in the dalton minimum which was nothing like it's predecassor.

[Ian]

the sun starts going down later today!!11!