nj2va Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Lime? Of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Of course! Good man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Cool, our first 49 pages of fail of the winter just concluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Isn't someone going to start a thread for our potential Christmas Eve snow storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Isn't someone going to start a thread for our potential Christmas Eve snow storm? Nah, it's the wrong time of day, it's trending west already, the 850 takes a bad track, there's no cold air source, the ground is wet, it never gets below freezing, there's a warm layer @ 925, it's elevation dependent, the big cities will have to wait for back end changeover, did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Nah, it's the wrong time of day, it's trending west already, the 850 takes a bad track, there's no cold air source, the ground is wet, it never gets below freezing, there's a warm layer @ 925, it's elevation dependent, the big cities will have to wait for back end changeover, did I miss anything? How about the fact that it is the GFS at 384? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Isn't someone going to start a thread for our potential Christmas Eve snow storm? I am surprised that nobody has mentioned the 00Z GFS at 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I am surprised that nobody has mentioned the 00Z GFS at 204. Bowling ball. 850 and 500 in the right place. No cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Starting to smell like "one of those years" when we get like 6 inches of snow total. I expect one event to track in January that promises SECS/MECS and ends up fizzling and perhaps a nasty ice/sleet thing in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Here are my benchmarks for early in the snow season. So far, I have had more snow this year (4.0") than 1931-32 (1.4") and 1972-73 (3.0") did in this area. With a little more than an inch more, I can surpass 2001-02 (4.9") and 2008-09 (5.1") Two inches, and I blow by 1930-31 (5.7".) Three inches and I pass 1954-55 (6.7") With 4" I can meet or exceed 1937-38 (7.7") 1994-95 (8.0") and 1949-50 (8.0") Hoping to put a dent in this tonight and climb the ladder. How much snow do you average per winter season? I did, and then I poured another vodka club soda. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 How much snow do you average per winter season? Long-term average is 26.2" 1981-2010 average is 27.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Well, I learned (the same lesson that I have to learn again each winter) to not hope too much for snow. So, as part of my mental retraining exercises, I will repeat over and over again when thinking about the weather, I will not hope for snow, I will not hope for snow, I will not hope for snow. When is our next chance for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Don S implied that the best we can realistically hope for this winter is a 2-4/3-6 event, and no KU for the big cities. I hope that call goes the way of his March 2010 outlook, but I'm not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Bowling ball. 850 and 500 in the right place. No cold air. 12Z has it running across the Midwest and into the Lakes. Bye bye. It does have a system coming out of Texas starting at 252 that gets suppressed and OTS at 288. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Don S implied that the best we can realistically hope for this winter is a 2-4/3-6 event, and no KU for the big cities. I hope that call goes the way of his March 2010 outlook, but I'm not counting on it. Stats only go so far alot depends on other factors along with the stats. Many times I've noticed they have not worked out well, especially March 2010. I do believe we will have a big snowstorm in early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 So when is our next rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Stats only go so far alot depends on other factors along with the stats. Many times I've noticed they have not worked out well, especially March 2010. I do believe we will have a big snowstorm in early Feb. But his states worked pretty well for Dec-Feb of the same year and seem to be working well so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 So when is our next rainstorm? Same time as our next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 dt is talking about a d10 pattern change.. again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 dt is talking about a d10 pattern change.. again And the people will follow him as he keeps pushing the pattern change further and further back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 dt is talking about a d10 pattern change.. again That will become part of his forecast for next winter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 dt is talking about a d10 pattern change.. again I just saw that too, he's calling for a "SECS on Day 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I just saw that too, he's calling for a "SECS on Day 10" sounds like my wife secs always 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 dt is talking about a d10 pattern change.. again Not sure what he is looking at. Sure, d10 on the gfs shows a pretty deep ec trough and some ridging out west but it is transient. Nothing has remotely changed to keep any kind of cold pattern on the ec in place. The pattern could change warmer I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Do some people only use this board as an outlet for their negativity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Not sure what he is looking at. Sure, d10 on the gfs shows a pretty deep ec trough and some ridging out west but it is transient. Nothing has remotely changed to keep any kind of cold pattern on the ec in place. The pattern could change warmer I guess. If I'm not mistaken, I think I read that his ideas revolve around the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 If I'm not mistaken, I think I read that his ideas revolve around the Euro. Oh yeah, forgot he was a eurobot. Haven't seen 12z but 0z last night was a stinker. Especially at the end of the run. It's a silly call imo. AO is locked positive, no blocking in sight, pna isn't doing much, and mjo is entering phase 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Way too much pessimism lately, the current +AO seems to be the culprit. Peak climo isn't for two months, and the La Nina SSTA reflection in the pacific is no longer heavily dignified on the STAR satellite system. When we get our 1999 reminiscent ZR storm I'm sure everyone will be happier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Way too much pessimism lately, the current +AO seems to be the culprit. Peak climo isn't for two months, and the La Nina SSTA reflection in the pacific is no longer heavily dignified on the STAR satellite system. When we get our 1999 reminiscent ZR storm I'm sure everyone will be happier.. I don't think it's pessimism. It's more realism than anything. Nobody is really crying or on the ledge. Probably because it's December though. If this was late Jan it would be a different story. I do think a cold Jan might be at risk. I didn't like my ao research. +ao decembers = +ao januarys 10 out of 11 times in the last 60 years. It's just one index though so I'm not all hung up on it. I'm going to take some time later and compare the nao for those 11 years and see what shakes out. I really don't know crap about the mjo other than the basic effects. The current cycle is kinda strong and isn't showing signs of fizzling. Timing of the favorable 8-2 phases looks to coincide with the end of the month so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Pleased with season so far IMBY. Today's high just tease over freezing at 32.4 and last night 1.8 " has held up nicely. Picture of webcam moments ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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